Here are my (very quick) numbers that I did for my cost analysis on going back. I assumed 80 credit hours, a profit sharing check might be $10k if I get one, normal progression at the airline, and estimated taxes ( I live in a very high tax state). I looked at different situations for if they offered the bonus or not, and whether I'd get an assignment that got partial tax free (Didn't think too much into it since it's hypothetical... think TDY to the Phillipines CZTE zone every now and then if you need to. I absolutely would not volunteer to deploy). Going back to the AF for 3 years would cost me $177k. I usually do way better than 80 credit hours a month, and didn't bother to run it for any premium pay trips since the difference was already huge. Interestingly, if they offered the bonus and I got some tax free, it looks like the money might favor going back. However, it's still comparing apples to crabapples. I think the A1 would be smart to sit and try to think the way we are (including those that haven't left but are running their own numbers). How do we make up in value the expected difference in value that someone choosing to go another path is looking at. There's only so far an O-6 (many of whom don't really care about you personally) can go with telling you - "you should want to serve just because its service!". Well to me (and roughly equivalent - those choosing to separate) that statement costs $175k to accept for a 3 year tour. Do I want $175k or, having already served my country honorably, want to do another 3 years of queep, and putting up with all the stuff I'd have to put up with. I know my assumptions are very flexible, and also that I didn't factor in an extra 7.5% retirement increase, nor any effects on a VA rating resulting from more service.
I lose:
current expected situation
$176,877.06
assuming no profit sharing
$155,677.06
no profit sharing and 6 mos tax free (~15% taxes)
$34,261.06
no profit sharing and getting the full bonus
$71,677.06
no profit sharing, 6 months tax free and the full bonus
$ (63,738.94)
with profit sharing and the full bonus
$92,877.06
with profit sharing, the full bonus and 6 months tax free $(42,538.94)