I don't think Big Blue is going to let pilots VSP and probably not a lot of TERAs. We are transferring a ton of planes to the Reserves and Guard. I think they are going to open up the ADSCs to allow/encourage pilots to take the Palace Chase option--not VSP/TERA. Pilots are too valuable. Regardless of the sunk costs of pilot training, we can train pilots in a short time span to be MSG officers. We can't train MSG officers to fill the Reserve/Guard pilot positions that are opening up when we move planes to the Reserves. Read the Force Structure articles and FY15 PB out there. MQ1/9s replacing U-2s and moving to the guard. F-16s moving to A-10 Reserve bases, tankers doing the same, C-130Js, etc. all moving to the Reserve/Guard. All the publicity about Total Force and increasing the role/responsibility of the Reserve/Guard. We can't let pilots go, we HAVE to let pilots go to the Reserve/Guard. I don't think the current PSDMs allow pilots to go Palace Chase if they have an ADSC, I could be wrong as I usually am.
We have to let folks out by 1 Oct to afford all of the Force Structure movement and large acquisition programs in FY15 but our hands are tied. The leadership keeps saying it, without saying it. That's what Big Blue calls transparency. It would take a pair of nuts to explicitly say it and stand by what you say, and Billy Mitchell is long gone.
If you hear the lawyers are holding up this program, it's because the FY14NDAA that came out only allows us to cut 2K people. That is a far cry from the supposedly 25K we plan to cut over the next 5 years. We have to ask for permission from Congress, OSD and CJSC to go below the FY14NDAA level. Plus, there is USC10 which says you can only get rid of a certain percent of officers based on what the FY14NDAA authorizes. Therefore, we wouldn't be able to get rid of as many people as we want to this year. We are better off waiting until next year to see what next year's FY15NDAA authorizes our end strength (hence the RIF delay). So, when you hear leadership say they are trying to designate who has authority, they are trying to clear these things up. In addition to that, there are a lot of people with ADSCs that are not waiverable based on the current PSDMs , therefore those people are eligible for the RIF but not VSP/TERA. That greatly reduces the amount of people that can apply and voids the statement that they will maximize voluntary applications before doing the involuntary measures. They have to open up the ADSCs, I just don't think many pilots will be allowed to go.
I think they are trying to see how many people and which people they should let go this year because they are limited by the FY14NDAA. Hopefully, the approval they get allows them to process all of the voluntary applications but who really knows how many applications they received. I bet they slow roll this program. That's why some TERAs with 19 are approved and nothing else. They are going to chip away at the 2K-3K people that we are allowed to reduce.
It is a complicated problem that has changed since the Force Management announcement with the FY14 NDAA coming out and it is tough to blame Welsch and Cox (who I have heard are Dudes) for not being able to predict what Congress would publish. Plus, once real lawyers (not JA) get involved nothing good can happen. That's a shot at JA, but I am sure they have been involved this whole time and never saw this coming. It is NOT tough to blame leadership for the lack of communication and lack of accountability. It's the 21st century. Tweet some sh**, make a Facebook page, make daily (not bi-monthly) posts on MyPers/vMPF. You might even get valuable feedback from the peasants you are trying to get rid of; however, you might be held accountable too and that is something we can't seem to get right in the AF.
In the end, these dudes can't and won't get fired. Deadlines spur action and they control the deadline. There is little to no incentive for them to get it right the first time, any other belief is romantic.
Hopefully these dudes grow a pair and let us know what's up. It's really not that hard to communicate. I have cancelled 2 interviews, my bosses hate me, and I haven't done anything productive at work in 6 weeks; unless you call checking MyPers, BO, and vMPF every 10-15 minutes productive. Go to church, hug your families, and tell them you're sorry for putting them through this emotional rollercoaster. Good luck.