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The problem is that some communities won't release people who aren't the Golden Child to staff, ergo@pawnman

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if all you wanted to do was fly, be prepared to retire as a major, but if you could could suck it up and do a staff assignment, O-5 becomes realistic (but not guaranteed). And that was 16 years ago when I had that talk.


16 yrs ago was a different AF. Hell ,5, 3, different AF. I hear we are looking at 90%+ to O-5 coming up. I’ve known multiple HPO’s would could have timed into 1-star jumping ship recently to airlines.

What am I getting at? If you want to fly, do it. As long as you don’t have a DUI or UIF and have min-runned your square filling (SOS/ACSC), in today’s AF, you can fly and will probably promote.

*some communities vary

I was told multiple times that by choosing flying over career I’d never make O-5. Best choice I ever made was ignoring that advice and choosing what I liked doing.

Even if I had been stuck at Maj for life, I’d still choose flying.


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What am I getting at? If you want to fly, do it. As long as you don’t have a DUI or UIF and have min-runned your square filling (SOS/ACSC), in today’s AF, you can fly and will probably promote. Baseops Network mobile app


Cool. That's what they told me, and I got passed over for major in my first look (95% promotion rate). No negative indicators, SOS in res complete, flt/cc, etc, just not a lot of real strats or awards, but nothing that would've pointed to bottom 5%. All my leadership up through the wing were as surprised as I was when I didn't make it. Best part was that on the same board, a dude that was a FP (needed supervision to fly, failed to check out as an IP in MQT) in the T-6 that was getting sent back to his previous unit made it. Picked up second look with a DP though

So yeah, glad you've been lucky, some of us aren't.
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1 hour ago, FltDoc said:

Drivel

Practice bleeding is unquestionably a fucking waste of time, I don’t care what your afsc is. 
 

if you want to read for fun on your own, just read books. Don’t press your overinflated opinion of what a “real” officer should do on others and then later on levy it as a promotion prereq against the CSAF wishes. They call that the frozen middle. 

Edited by SurelySerious
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24 minutes ago, jazzdude said:


 

 


Cool. That's what they told me, and I got passed over for major in my first look (95% promotion rate). No negative indicators, SOS in res complete, flt/cc, etc, just not a lot of real strats or awards, but nothing that would've pointed to bottom 5%. All my leadership up through the wing were as surprised as I was when I didn't make it. Best part was that on the same board, a dude that was a FP (needed supervision to fly, failed to check out as an IP in MQT) in the T-6 that was getting sent back to his previous unit made it. Picked up second look with a DP though

So yeah, glad you've been lucky, some of us aren't.

 

Don’t believe there isn’t more to this story. 

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Don’t believe there isn’t more to this story. 
That's about it. Crap happens, glad you have been fortunate enough to dodge it.

Probably hurt having a long casual LT period (not by choice, ~1 year) followed by training with the Navy (last choice on my dream sheet, ~15 months because of how the AF prioritized classing up for training, so I sat casual again for several months), followed by a UPT contractor strike. So bad timing all around early in my career, and essentially 1 Lt opr short of what I should've had.

Flew the line, 2x flying deployments + 1x non flying deployment, C-17 IP, airdrop AC, UPT IP.

Played the "if I deserve an award, my supervisor should take care of me" game, so only had 1 quarterly award.

Only real strat was from the OG as a top 20%-ish flt/cc on my top opr for the board. Nothing spectacular, but not bottom of the bucket.

PME done, Masters degree done, no UIF or PFT failures. No missed end of tour decorations, no referral OPRs, no NJP/LOR/LOA.

The only thing the promotion counselor had for feedback was not enough awards.

So yeah, crap happens, better lucky than good, timing is everything, etc
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12 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

So yeah, crap happens, better lucky than good, timing is everything, etc

True. 

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9 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

ACSC in correspondence to make competitive for in res is indeed a waste of time, CSAF said so. 

I didn't see any part of his post that said you should do ACSC in correspondence to make yourself more competitive for in residence.  I did see in his post that you should do ACSC if you want to get promoted.

I did mine as early as I did not so that I would get picked up for school, but because I knew after not getting picked up off my major's board, the odds of getting picked up on subsequent boards was slim to none.  

Quote

You don't "have" to go to staff. If someone wants to just fly, go for it. But there's a price to pay for that choice-it'll be a lot harder to make O-5. That's not wrong or unfair, it's just the nature of the business, and the mid-level captains should be made aware of the rules of the game so they can make informed career decisions.

In my community especially, it seems the less time you spend flying the B-1 and the more time you can spend doing literally anything else, the better your chances for promotion are. 

Edited by pawnman
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45 minutes ago, pawnman said:

In my community especially, it seems the less time you spend flying the B-1 and the more time you can spend doing literally anything else, the better your chances for promotion are. 

Exactly the same way in literally every community in the MAF.

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Promotion is pretty cut and dry, put yourself in the best position to get a DP. Even after all the new changes, it still going to be determined by DP or P. You can absolutely buck the system and choose not to do the things the “Air Force” deems important, and there will be a handful of people who make it. But until upper management, who’ve all succeeded using the box checking mantra retires, then that’s the battlefield. Good luck, may the odds be ever in your favor!

Edited by jrizzell
Grammar

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Any real memo on promotion %?

 

and what might DP rate be?  I think it’s around 50% or 55% DP for the previous 75% rate??

 

or ya the rate been higher than 75%

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Cool. That's what they told me, and I got passed over for major in my first look (95% promotion rate). No negative indicators, SOS in res complete, flt/cc, etc, just not a lot of real strats or awards, but nothing that would've pointed to bottom 5%. All my leadership up through the wing were as surprised as I was when I didn't make it. Best part was that on the same board, a dude that was a FP (needed supervision to fly, failed to check out as an IP in MQT) in the T-6 that was getting sent back to his previous unit made it. Picked up second look with a DP though

So yeah, glad you've been lucky, some of us aren't.

Back in 2012ish, a bunch of 11F’s, mostly viper guys got F-Ed when their leadership tried to play with numbers thinking there was no way they’d get passed over, and favored the non-ops dudes with weak records. It backfired, the non-ops guys made Maj, the pilots didn’t.

Weird shit happens. It’s not right but the statistical odds are that that won’t happen to most people in a normal tear.

Your story sounds like something, somewhere at some level got F-ed up and maybe it was covered up and never explained to you.


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Yeah, I don't know, but I've made my peace with it.

Got some great advice from my then Group CC, that I've taken to heart. Straight up told that I probably wouldn't get an opportunity to command (wasn't really gunning for it anyways, and that wasn't a surprise anyways), but because of that, I don't have the pressure to play the game, so go out and find what makes me happy and do it. If I want to just fly, just do it, the pilot shortage isn't getting better. If I want to get out, the airlines are hiring. If I want to do something else, shoot for it without worrying about career progression. Lots of options still out there. And that mindset has given me some great opportunities since. I've found little niches where I can make make my corner of the AF a better place doing something I enjoy, so it ends up being a win-win for me and the AF.

If I retire as a major, great, I went out doing what I liked to do. If I make lt col, great, that retirement paycheck will be bigger. My self worth doesn't rely on what's on my shoulders.

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4 hours ago, bennynova said:

Any real memo on promotion %?

 

and what might DP rate be?  I think it’s around 50% or 55% DP for the previous 75% rate??

 

or ya the rate been higher than 75%

For the LAF-A category, the final allocation memo states 90% selection rate with a 50% DP allocation. 

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4 minutes ago, Bigred said:

For the LAF-A category, the final allocation memo states 90% selection rate with a 50% DP allocation. 


can you just post all the categories?  Or is it on Mypers?

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15 minutes ago, bennynova said:


can you just post all the categories?  Or is it on Mypers?

Ah, my bad, and sure. This will be promotion rate/DP rate. Dunno if it's on MyPers yet.

LAF-A: 90% / 50%
LAF-N: 85% / 45%
LAF-S: 90% / 50%
LAF-I: 90%  / 50%
LAF-C: 85% / 45%
LAF-F: 85% / 45%

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15 hours ago, WheelsOff said:

Exactly the same way in literally every community in the MAF.

Yepp, as long as you don’t have too many Q-3s and you made Instructor you can min run your flying and be much better prepared for promotion than the mission hackers.  I’m hoping AFSC specific boards helps mitigate the good dudes being glossed over by nonners on the board. 

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So yeah, crap happens, better lucky than good, timing is everything, etc


I have a somewhat similar story that I told pages ago in this thread. I wish I would have been mentored/sought out help early in my career to learn the OPR code/path to a DP and make adjustments before it was too late.

I made the decision to leave AD and go guard when it became obvious that what the AF wants me to do and what I want to do are different. I hope the new O-5 board works for others but I doubt it would have produced a different result for me.

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https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/14/new-army-program-will-make-sure-prospective-battalion-commanders-are-fit-lead.html?ESRC=eb_200115.nl
 

"If you take a look at officers that may have got out early ... and you ask them how their battalion commander was, it was probably not who they wanted or inspired them do serve,"
 

“But he did ASBC/SOS correspondence/SOS in residence/Masters/ACSC correspondence....I don’t get it.” -Air Force

 

 

 

 

 

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On 1/13/2020 at 5:19 PM, Bigred said:

Ah, my bad, and sure. This will be promotion rate/DP rate. Dunno if it's on MyPers yet.

LAF-A: 90% / 50%
LAF-N: 85% / 45%
LAF-S: 90% / 50%
LAF-I: 90%  / 50%
LAF-C: 85% / 45%
LAF-F: 85% / 45%

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

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1 hour ago, 14N Guy said:

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

You’re being compared to your peers instead of someone in a completely different AFSC who may have had more leadership opportunities.  I’m guessing you are Intel?  Most Intel majors I know are crushing it as SIO.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t look as good on paper compared to the MSG Major that’s already a Squadron Commander.  Nor does being the overall mission commander for a Red Flag Ex as say a Pilot to an MSG on the promotion board. Now, you are compared to your fellow SIOs/pilots to pilots etc...the SFS Major Sq/cc is compared to the LRS Major Sq/cc. 

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You’re being compared to your peers instead of someone in a completely different AFSC who may have had more leadership opportunities.  I’m guessing you are Intel?  Most Intel majors I know are crushing it as SIO.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t look as good on paper compared to the MSG Major that’s already a Squadron Commander.  Nor does being the overall mission commander for a Red Flag Ex as say a Pilot to an MSG on the promotion board. Now, you are compared to your fellow SIOs/pilots to pilots etc...the SFS Major Sq/cc is compared to the LRS Major Sq/cc. 


His screen name is 14N guy


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2 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

That’s not how math works....

Discounting APZ people....

if you don’t get a DP, you have between a 70 and 80% chance at promotion, depending on your LAF category

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2 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

My math may be wrong, but I think it's an 80% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

Using the promotion rate/DP rate of:  90%/50% 

Say 100 folks are up for promotion for easy math.  50 get DPs and all are promoted.  50 get a P, but to reach a 90% promotion rate, 40 of those with a P would need to get promoted.  40/50=80%....I think.

The big change I learned about yesterday is that line numbers will be given based on merit order, rather than date of rank.  So the promotion board will rack and stack everyone, and pin-on will occur based on where you end up in that stack.  Seems like a good change since you will now know where the board stacked you against your peers.

edit: Benny beat me to it

Edited by otsap

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My apologies for passing along bad gouge. My math in public skills are obviously terrible and I appreciate the corrections.

 

1 hour ago, dream big said:

You’re being compared to your peers instead of someone in a completely different AFSC who may have had more leadership opportunities.  I’m guessing you are Intel?  Most Intel majors I know are crushing it as SIO.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t look as good on paper compared to the MSG Major that’s already a Squadron Commander.  Nor does being the overall mission commander for a Red Flag Ex as say a Pilot to an MSG on the promotion board. Now, you are compared to your fellow SIOs/pilots to pilots etc...the SFS Major Sq/cc is compared to the LRS Major Sq/cc. 

A few comments regarding this. All of the SIO's/DO's/Det CC's are boarded positions (you get 5 opportunities), so all of these folks already go through a selection process where they are racked/stacked against their peers two times. The first time is to get on the candidate list, then the second time to get selected for a position.

The intel community already limits who it considers for promotion once you are an O-4 select (yes, there are some other avenues to get promoted and some folks not selected for leadership positions get promoted...But, the majority of 14N O-5's have either held a boarded leadership position or done in-res IDE).

At least for the LAF-I board, I am skeptical that this will do anything for the APZ guys, mainly because 14N leadership already has its tiers set up well before folks hit their first look at O-5.

Maybe I am wrong and the process will work like it is being pitched. There are folks I know who deserve to be promoted and I hope this process helps them out.

Source: me. I was a boarded DO that has been passed over a few times

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