Clark Griswold

I wonder if this is the beginning of the return of military escorts being required for most international shippers as Peter Zeihan has predicted? If there is something the US, Europe, Aussies, Japan, SK, etc… can agree on it is freedom of navigation / access to the global commons (at least for us), could we agree on growing our surface fleets for patrol and escort, agreeing to always protect each other?

Less awful than saying the border is secure when thousands brazenly crossed daily for months under the eye of LE told to let it happen

It’s a cool little jet, the block 20 brings a lotta capes for the money. The right jet for a lot of Allies and some missions in the AF. Vaporware but a good approximation of a stealthish FA-50

FA-50 with 9Xs The AviationistPoland Moves to Arm FA-50PL With AIM-9XPoland formalized the integration of the AIM-9X Sidewinder on the FA-50PL, enhancing air policing capabilities as deliveries of the light fighter shift to

The War ZoneE-7 Wedgetail Radar Jet The Pentagon Tried To Cancel Gets...Lawmakers already shot down Pentagon plans to buy E-2 Hawkeyes instead of E-7s Wedgetails.

Thankfully TACO not FAFO https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/trump-tells-europe-and-nato-to-hand-over-greenland-or-else Still, make Greenland Denmark an offer that they want to accept .

Hmmmm, a lot there… your comment on my editing my original post seems accusatory so I’m not sure we are arguing in totally good faith, I reserve the right to adjust my statements as I write them then let them stand, enough on that. My original post expressed my skepticism on kinetic action and my later post with not one weapon used to change the status quo, other IOPs are available but all the talk of military action is just that, talk. No one is going to order anything even close to that, I was wrong on Venezuela but I’m positive about this. All other parts of the government would just say no and he knows that. Trump says outlandish bullshit to break norms, to cause conversation and discussion that would have been dismissed out of hand before and to get the other party to engage. Maybe it’s crass or uncouth but for him it’s SOP. I’m ok with it because the pre Trump world, norms, expectations and paradigm were a bad deal for the USA, for the working and middle class and emasculating. Nothing is free in this world, especially not security, if you want us to guarantee it for you, the terms occasionally must be updated. I use the freedom for Greenland as humor, nothing more than that. Golan Heights is apt as a metaphor as i meant it as strategic territory from which a foe could use to attack if they held. All of your other points are true but will not be going into the future methinks, Golden Dome will be built out and will have a need for terrestrial infrastructure, in very high latitudes, rare earth minerals will become even more valuable and critical so the infrastructure to produce them will be built as China and Russia use their rare earth minerals as leverage over us, Russia/China will develop some hard power expeditionary capabilities to reach into the Arctic, etc… I’d rather have a dissuading presence there than have to react and figure out how to push them back or out. They may not use all hard power to get a foothold there but prepare for the worst. If not blowing up NATO means not getting a better deal for the US than essentially the arrangement we have had since the early 90s because the Western Europeans don’t want change of any kind in it then it should not exist. I’m not sure how I came across as a warmongering a hole on this as I’m not but I’m also not in favor of us just being a dupe and simping for the rest of the free world.

The security environment has changed / gotten more dangerous I don’t like it but methinks behind the scenes the other players are maneuvering their chess pieces, developing systems they are not publicly disclosing, preparing for another major military action to change the world order to their benefit. Blocking this is in our interest and Europe’s. Perhaps a bit over dramatic but a scene from the Netflix series the Diplomat gives a fictional but realistic reasoning why we need a new status with Greenland It’s strategic real estate in preparation for the inevitable tension and stand off in the Arctic, for basing and securing the North Atlantic and a source of the minerals we will need to build tech, weapons and prosperity to keep authoritarian regimes at bay. We are not perfect but we are a helluva lot better than the alternative hegemony.

But that is what people do, maybe they shouldn’t but force & intimidation with a mixture of the fair, unfair and semi-fair application of laws/rules/treaties is how entities that occasionally use violence to resolve disputes do things. I’m not for using one weapon on the Danes or anyone else participating in a presence and reassurance mission there for them but I am for using our leverage to get either a better status for first the USA, then the Greenlanders and ultimately for the Danes and NATO. If they can’t meet us halfway on this, then we give them fair warning that the US membership in NATO is not guaranteed. You meet us halfway and we give you X,Y,Z… Values based diplomacy/international relations is not viable in this next phase of global affairs we are in. Transactional relations with reasonable deference to civilizational values, natural rights and general respect for the natural world should be our COA going forward.

Maybe if the parties involved are equal but if they are not then eminent domain / you have to do this is just the way it is. If the state I live in says a road / utility line has to go thru for the greater good, here’s your check now move along. Great powers, more powerful countries sometimes just make things as they want. The difference between the US and Russia, China, etc… is the reasons why, how we treat those we make do as we want and the how we make our will done upon others, particularly in this situation. Plenty of examples where we could have done better. Not saying we are perfect, not saying the effort to “acquire” Greenland or just change the status quo is without criticism or risk but we can’t let the other powers into the Arctic more than they already are. This is our Golan Heights, we just have to have a greater say in what happens there. No apologies, not backing up and not going away. Working with us is way better than not.

So I read this and it’s only 1 article in a Trump friendly paper but… it seems like Greenland needs some freedom, not necessarily kinetically delivered. https://nypost.com/2026/01/16/world-news/greenlanders-speak-out-against-danish-rule-they-stole-our-future/ Should we force this issue? A new arrangement with a new independent Greenland or no more NATO?

Yeah, the livery could be better. Dark grey like the A350 concept would work better with standard type for the US AIR FORCE or alternatively a MATS heritage livery…

USAF 787

You might be right, if a unit were to lose or change its mission for this said unit / state leadership would have to have A LOT of confidence that the plane & training mission would last, I saw the C-27J bait ‘n switch up close and personal, that’s a few years in the rear view but I’d be surprised if the ANG institutional memory has forgotten it. I think you probably could get some takers for this mission as there are more than a few MWS’s in the ARC that are not looking relevant going into the future, if you approached a Wing(s) with a plan to keep them gainfully employed, no significant long term change to the economic footprint in the state and public support from AD leadership that this COA will be supported for 10+ years at least, some I think would raise a hand. Yeah, if AD students are allowed to attend it could exacerbate the problem of FTU waiting, or if scheduled correctly it would more slowly produce but not overwhelm FTU intake, all in the execution. All simulators…. Yup, that’s the real devil / part of a way forward I think leadership sees as the easy button. The thing is it is half right. I’ve gone thru two airline sim programs but after I’ve had 20+ years flying so it was appropriate for me to learn and safely, reliably operate a transport category aircraft in routine operations. That is not the case for 99.9% of UPT studs and the range of flight operations they will be required to perform if called upon. A hybrid of ME flight training then a solid type+ course in a transport category level D sim, maybe. The best argument against all simulator ME training I think (not that the AF would follow it) is if all sim ME training is acceptable in quality and risk then why hasn’t the commercial world embraced it?

Good questions. The bill payer I think would be the ARC, O&M pays for training and usually that account is pretty fat. Call it 300 students x about $150k in contractor provided program. 45 million, not chump change but likely cheaper in the long run versus sending them thru a T-6 primary course. I had a modicum staff work in the GWOT days when funding was flowing but my gut tells me it’s affordable. T-54s or other T jet would be based and manned as an additional squadron at an existing Wing to piggyback as much as possible on existing facilities. Might diminish or eliminate the existing mission but methinks it could be an associated unit if leadership kept it clear what the intent was for dudes volunteering or assigned there. The devil is always in the details but 2-3 year tours to stay below the 5 year limit for a full course requal would probably be an acceptable bill to the ARC in manning coverage. T-54 instructors would be generated in house, type course and then syllabus if no previous King Air time. Other T jet would be initial cadre and commander designated then establish a similar process. I think this would help the bottleneck at heavy FTUs by more clearly showing heavy pilot production (at least a large portion of them) to heavy FTU intake. That is you know X number of students in this pipeline are all destined for an X FTU slot, adjust backwards the allocation (number and report times) of UPT slots to the ARC to fit the proper rhythm using wait times from graduation to FTU training start as your primary trend indicator. I’d have to do some serious number crunching with access to data I don’t have but… I’m confident that if I did it would be cheaper. The boost in productivity really comes from the freed up space for the AD if they wanted to backfill those slots that the ARC is no longer in. Expansion of the UPT enterprise but overall cheaper if run at planned capacity, higher production if desired if you backfill slots, smoother production if you choose to not backfill due to wiggle room in the regular UPT system. I deleted formation as most of the instructors in this phase 1 would be civilian and likely not familiar, form would be covered in mil instructed flight training.

So I thought about something, if UPT is maxed out and there is a portion of students that know they are going back to heavy units (a few guys sometimes do very well and switch to fighter units and vice versa but that’s the exception and not the rule) why not establish an ARC only program, half contractor half mil instructed to alleviate waiting in the regular UPT system / boost productivity? Adopt the 141 based training for pre mil instruction, but a stand alone program, then 1 or 2 locations for the multi engine mil based training. No T-6 time. GA based PPL with INSTM training then AMEL and x-country. Tailwheel, upset recovery and acro basics. No formation in this phase. About 160+ hours. Mil instruction in a T-54 (130 bound students plus others) or a successor to the T-1 (Phenom, Hondajet, Citation). About 60+ hours. Thoughts?

I hear ya, I’m apprehensive about kinetic and boots on the ground but i agree with @Lord Ratner that we can control immigration especially in the case of Cuba as it is an island just far enough to control maritime outflows attempting to land in the USA and our maritime forces would operate out of the USA. This administration would also not implement a policy regarding asylum seekers from a newly liberated Cuba that would release first process later ala previous administrations (Democratic and Republican, the corporate globalists wings of both parties). I’m sure there would be risk but I’m confident a stabilization mission after a negotiated end to Communist Party rule could be done at an acceptable risk. Quarantine the island, marshal forces, apply diplomatic pressure, offer generous aid to the Cuban people, amnesty for former regime officials and safe passage for those who would be targeted in the new Cuba but testimony first in a truth and reconciliation commission, etc… I’m not for adventurism or naive idealistic nation building in totally alien societies but in this case, in our neighborhood, with a nation with have connection with, I think we should.

Concur, in our backyard I’d like us to start making offers that can’t be refused; offering a better deal than the Chinese or Europeans can offer. Basically plugged into our security, intel, economic / finance, tech system with access to visas and fair trade based on compliance with treaties, agreements, etc… you remain a sovereign country but we are friends with benefits now. Cuba could get a nice off ramp from the rogue nation highway in this instance

So here’s my Venezuela prediction… Now I’m thinking about Cuba… as is SECSTATE Rubio BreitbartRubio: Cuban Government Is 'in a Lot of Trouble'Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the leaders in Cuba were in a lot of trouble when asked about potential military actions. | ClipsThis thread is about putting it out there sts so… I’m gonna say Cuba gets defensive and survives (hopefully lightning strikes twice like my original Venezuelan prediction) but the Cuban regime has survived a lot and is frustratingly durable Thoughts?

Little bit of info trickling out Air & Space Forces MagazineUS Airpower Paved Way for Special Ops to Capture Venezuel...U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a high-stakes military operation on Jan. 3 supported by extensive U.S. airpower.Interesting that there were LE present in the force that captured Maduro.

ImgflipLaughing Leo

Yup - Clark is happily negative one point on this one Woke up, checked my phone and holy shit, this was unexpected

A thread for guessing what’s gonna happen https://www.theblaze.com/shows/glenn-tv/3-blazetv-hosts-give-their-top-2026-predictions-and-theyre-wild Based on the article, Clark’s prognostications: Geo political: Ukraine War ends by summer, tense peace, Russia continues grey zone actions but shifts to Baltic shenanigans. China does more encirclement exercises but does not invade. Venezuela destabilizes further but does not fall. Oil and China keeps regime a float. Iran cracks down and survives, IC navel gazes and allows brutal repression. Turkey gets refugee influx, they ship them to Europe. Europe intakes them reluctantly and governments get wobbly but order remains. Other migrants attempt to enter with this influx. Aliens No disclosure even if governments have made contact with them. Markets DOW finishes above 50k USA faces debt mini crisis, inflation comes back but not as bad as Biden era, above 4% by end of year. Interest rates freeze. Gold and precious metals surge, crypto grows. AI begins culling entry level knowledge workers, nibbles at middle level, has largest effect on junior executive level. Politics Republicans hold both houses, Democratic Party goes further left. Semi serious calls for Bluexit occur. No effort is made to contain spending growth, reference mini debt crisis above, bond markets are nervous but buy Treasuries at higher interest rates.

Cool. This is not my bailiwick but concerns me in general for preserving a strong pilot culture in the center of the AF. The MAF having a finishing school after UPT but before FTU is where this idea really would be focused. Just as commercial operators look for minimum hours, experience levels and track records of success prior to hiring, the MAF needs that in the pilots it assesses. Again strong pilot culture. A first short assignment like the first job a civilian pilot lands, can start their careers, training and ultimately lead to a more capable MAF. I’m just day dreaming on BO but if a post graduate universal 1st assignment system (multiple steps) was synched up to MAF and other big wing / crew bound graduates, it could handle the intake and steadily produce better aviators prior to heavy FTUs. Would it produce the immediate mass they say is needed now? Probably not but methinks the cost of a glut of less than optimally trained pilots is greater than waiting a bit and getting the heavy customers accustomed to getting better pilots at a slower but steady cadence. My druthers would be for the AF to petition for a military B737 MAX 7 with reasonable mods and have this be a short assignment for all heavy tracked grads. The sequence would be a multi engine refresher and short experience builder course, all contractor provided. A short break for some leave then report for a contractor provided type course with additional sims, a type plus course. Then report to one of three units flying this jet, get about 25-35 sorties, then move on your way. This is fusing advanced training with operations, reducing the investment of the AF into training only aircraft but gaining new reliable, efficient, organic steady airlift capabilities.

All in the execution and really this idea is more for the MAF than the CAF. The F-7 has been discussed and probably some initial work has been done, no inside knowledge, but as an affordable mass replacement for older F-16s, a modern F-5 our smaller Allies could afford and IMHO, a good round out for the USAF to keep its fighter pilots always flying. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/11/air-force-weighing-turning-t-7-into-f-7-armed-light-attack-jet-official/ Really, it would be additive but probably not in total costs if an ARC squadron were so equipped with a lesser amount of their PAA but also equipped with X of F-7s. Devil in the details and all but likely a ratio of 3-4 F-7s could be had and supported for the cost of 1 “heavy” fighter. As for the MAF, this needs to be cargo, people, modern systems and lots of reps. Basically a regional airline run by AMC to give that pilot experience before moving on to the bigger jets while establishing or restoring capabilities lost when we lost jets like the C-9, most of the C-21s, etc… if an appropriate ME program is not going to be fielded.