1/3 BPZs with a pretty strong push line.  I thought I was borderline to pull a DP at the MLR and but at a minimum this helps for IPZ next year.  Good luck to IPZ folks getting their PRFs back the next couple weeks with the good boxed checked. 

Congrats. The DP at least gets you in the correct pile at the board. No chance without that.

Your actual chances of selection are based on several things. First, it has to be more than just your PRF and OPR on top. If you’ve got a string of OPRs with #1 rank/grade based wing strats (ie, #1/100 Wg Capts....not 1/35 IPs), that’s good. If you’ve got multiple DGs (not the least of which from SOS), that’s even better. Jobs with proven leadership and responsibilities are a must. Your PRF being signed by a GO or at least a wing CC of a large wing is a decent boost too. Finally, being at the top of a large denominator of eligibles really helps. I’ve seen SRs actually push some BTZs above IPZs by stratting then as 1/XX eligibles (not just BTZ) with a push that said something like “1/XX eligibles ahead of X IPZ....he’s that good.” You have all of those things, and you’re definitely in decent shape. If only one or two or only shades of what I described, I’d put your chances in the single digits as mentioned in the post above.

Either way, I’d use this year’s process (and your BTZ DP) as a positive indication that you’ll make it IPZ (in case you’re trying to make life plans as far as getting out/staying in).

3 hours ago, Champ Kind said:

(in case you’re trying to make life plans as far as getting out/staying in).

 

Wait... we're allowed to have those!?!?!?!?

On 1/10/2019 at 9:28 AM, Skitzo said:

 

Are they going to bump BTZ DP to 15%?


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I didn't realize DP allocations were separate for BPZ and I/ABZ. 

So what was the DP BPZ allocation this year?  Anyone have an idea historically what percentage of DP BPZs get promoted?

BPZ DP allocation was 15%.

Last year, BPZ pilots with IDE had a ~44% select rate if I recall correctly.

Edited January 27, 20196 yr by osulax05

BPZ DP allocation was 15%.

Last year, BPZ pilots with IDE had a ~44% select rate if I recall correctly.

 

They will fix the glitch in manning by promoting more BPZ.

 

Honestly it is smart you don’t need to be a Lt Col to be a commander. Now because they have to be they will make them sooner.

 

 

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1 hour ago, osulax05 said:

BPZ DP allocation was 15%.

Last year, BPZ pilots with IDE had a ~44% select rate if I recall correctly.

IDE in res? W/ DP? 

Last 5 years, DP rate for IPZ was 55%

all of the 55% make it (for the most part) plus the next 15%....  around 70%

DP tate for BPZ was 10%

roughly 25% of the 10% make it

 

there are more BPZ than IPZ, so it end up being 75%

 

these are estimated.  Don’t hold me to it. 

10 hours ago, dream big said:

IDE in res? W/ DP? 

Check RAW via AFPC secure, but I think it just breaks it down by IDE/no IDE.

Check RAW via AFPC secure, but I think it just breaks it down by IDE/no IDE.

In-res is masked. That said, you can bet anyone who makes it BPZ was in-res.


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In-res is masked. That said, you can bet anyone who makes it BPZ was in-res.


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When it shows on your duty history and you have a TR from the school...it isn’t masked.

A large percentage of BPZs wouldn’t have attended school yet so it’s not something for a board to take into consideration anyway as a determining factor.

A large percentage of BPZs wouldn’t have attended school yet so it’s not something for a board to take into consideration anyway as a determining factor.

 

Not if they went first or second look.

 

 

When it shows on your duty history and you have a TR from the school...it isn’t masked.

It’s masked as far as the official numbers/AFPC static reports indicate. Obviously the board

Is able to see who is in-res between narrative PRF, TR, and student status on their career brief.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

 

When it shows on your duty history and you have a TR from the school...it isn’t masked.

 

 

This is technically true.  Also, if the board is specifically instructed not to consider in-res vs non-res then it shouldn't matter (in a perfect world).

Of course, unless Wg/CCs are also instructed to not consider in-res vs non-res in their allocation of DPs, it is still an issue.

5 hours ago, Homestar said:

This is technically true.  Also, if the board is specifically instructed not to consider in-res vs non-res then it shouldn't matter (in a perfect world).

Of course, unless Wg/CCs are also instructed to not consider in-res vs non-res in their allocation of DPs, it is still an issue.

Senior raters are instructed to not consider whether someone has completed IDE in corespondence when making nominations for IDE in Res central board and when determining DP allocation for BPZ.  However, I think it’s a pretty safe assumption some, not all, senior raters and/or MLR members ignore this guidance.   One thing is for certain: Completing an in-res IDE program or being en route to an in-res IDE program is a trump card for BPZ consideration and, at a minimum, makes you a lock IPZ.  

1 hour ago, celtic020 said:

Senior raters are instructed to not consider whether someone has completed IDE in corespondence when making nominations for IDE in Res central board and when determining DP allocation for BPZ.  However, I think it’s a pretty safe assumption some, not all, senior raters and/or MLR members ignore this guidance.   One thing is for certain: Completing an in-res IDE program or being en route to an in-res IDE program is a trump card for BPZ consideration and, at a minimum, makes you a lock IPZ.  

I had a former OG and WG commander state in no uncertain terms that they absolutely used correspondence as a discriminator for in res after your first look. That WG/CC is now wearing a star. I think it's safe to assume they treated DP the same way. 

Goddamn all this talk reminds me with shivers what AD goes through...a mystical journey with ever-changing rules shrouded in secrecy where success is mostly a question of luck and timing.

Mercy on your souls for staying with AD. I know not everyone has a choice to exit early. Best of...luck to those who remain. It’s literally the sharpest tool in your bag.

11 hours ago, ImNotARobot said:

Goddamn all this talk reminds me with shivers what AD goes through...a mystical journey with ever-changing rules shrouded in secrecy where success is mostly a question of luck and timing.

Mercy on your souls for staying with AD. I know not everyone has a choice to exit early. Best of...luck to those who remain. It’s literally the sharpest tool in your bag.

And Wing/CCs blatantly ignoring CSAF and SECAF guidance.  Can’t blame fingers for this mess when his minions’ minions run this monkey show. 

You can blame fingers for not holding them accountable.

2 hours ago, Guardian said:

You can blame fingers for not holding them accountable.

Bingo.  Fire just one or two WG/CCs for this and it will stop.

I feel fortunate my senior rater (Air Force 2-Star) did not use correspondence as a discriminator for in-res nominations.  I had almost none of it done when I got selected for in-res.  At least some folks are following the guidance, which actually makes sense.  Using correspondence as a discriminator means they actually want you to do IDE twice....which is as dumb as it sounds. 

I had almost none of it done when I got selected for in-res.  At least some folks are following the guidance, which actually makes sense.  Using correspondence as a discriminator means they actually want you to do IDE twice....which is as dumb as it sounds. 

Yet, for some reason, you had started doing exactly that?

Bendy

3 hours ago, Bender said:

 

Yet, for some reason, you had started doing exactly that?

Bendy

 

Shack. Don’t do correspondence IDE at and it will fix the glitch....

Here I thought you guys were talking about using the method of completion as a discriminator, not doing it by correspondence first to get picked up in residence.

Edited January 29, 20196 yr by pawnman

13 hours ago, Bender said:

 

Yet, for some reason, you had started doing exactly that?

Bendy

 

Was sort of hedging my bets approaching my last look for IDE in-res in case I was not selected as the window between non-select notification and IPZ board is somewhat tight.  But your point is well-received -- I hope Fingers' intent will come to fruition regarding the IDE selection process because it directly impacted me favorably as a non-shiny penny, slightly above average O-3 turned pretty good O-4  who kept working hard rather than the legacy system where your career track was pre-ordained simply based on whether you were a school select on your O-4 board or not.