1 minute ago, pawnman said:

Well, hell, why even introduce it as an option then?  Sounds like the exact same people will continue to get school slots and DPs.  May as well keep the whole decision board-based if commanders will just do whatever the boards were going to do anyway.

Shack.  I don't know what effect CSAF was trying to create with this, but what's going to happen is that the DAs and the third look dudes will get a large majority of the slots.   Will be tough to snag a slot if you're a layer below shiny penny.  They should've left it alone. 

If the last look population is growing, do we think over time as these officers enter the mix it'll do anything to help temper expectations on how fast a career should progress?

Wishful thinking I know, maybe I am hoping for an unintended positive consequence of this change

1 hour ago, celtic020 said:

Shack.  I don't know what effect CSAF was trying to create with this, but

what's going to happen is that the DAs and the third look dudes will get a large majority of the slots.   

The effect you’re predicting is the effect CSAF intended to create.

Original complaint from SRs was that folks ID’d as school attendees at their board would stop working at the level which brought them there.  They were made men; some even PCS’d and displaced strat plans by different SRs.  Complaints about the previous system which precipitated this change were from WG/CCs. 

By reserving a sizable portion of school slots for 3rd look, CSAF ensures folks continue working for it and we’ve had more time to assess their potential for higher performance.  Also, those selected are selected by their current WG commander, not someone else’s pick forced upon a new WG.  By creating “DA” CSAF has preserved the process by which WG/CCs can posture their #1 pick for BPZ (which traditionally doesn’t go to a 3rd look member).

Time will tell if it’s a good change or bad.  I personally think no process tweaks can fix a fundamentally broken culture.  However I understand the logic, agree in principal, and you can’t fault the man for trying.  Cheers.

Edited March 15, 20196 yr by tac airlifter

59 minutes ago, celtic020 said:

Shack.  I don't know what effect CSAF was trying to create with this, but what's going to happen is that the DAs and the third look dudes will get a large majority of the slots.   Will be tough to snag a slot if you're a layer below shiny penny.  They should've left it alone. 

Well, if these slots go to third-look folks, then they aren't going to shiny pennies.  So that's already an improvement over "you didn't make it first look, I can't keep arguing for you, I have to posture captain Snuffy for his 2 BPZ board".

19 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Well, if these slots go to third-look folks, then they aren't going to shiny pennies.  So that's already an improvement over "you didn't make it first look, I can't keep arguing for you, I have to posture captain Snuffy for his 2 BPZ board".

That's fair. 

So 220 out of 500 slots are reserved for DAs?  There’s no way SRs don’t give it to their #1 pick with those that remain left fighting for the remaining 280 scraps.  Good news for those with a DA but not so much for the rest.  

9 hours ago, pawnman said:

Well, if these slots go to third-look folks, then they aren't going to shiny pennies.  So that's already an improvement over "you didn't make it first look, I can't keep arguing for you, I have to posture captain Snuffy for his 2 BPZ board".

about 545 IDE slots each year.

about 220 will go to DAs.

about 60 additional slots will be reserved for third looks (not DAs). Note this also happened in 2018.

If you weren’t going to be the Wg/CC’s #1 before you won’t be his DA now. This changes nothing except gives Wg/CCs more control and confidence that their guy will go, which believe it or not did not always happen before.

Edited March 15, 20196 yr by Klepto
meh.

I’m not sure there will be 220 DAs.   Doesn’t thing wing have to be a certain size?

 

certainly a wing with 2 eligibles can send one automatically?

41 minutes ago, yeah2011 said:

There are 215 DAs.  The list of SRIDs is on MyPers.  ~545 IDE slots total.  

NERD

Talking with my Rater last night it sounds like a pretty low chance to make this board without a DA. For one, the 07 year group still has quite of few selects to pile through. Additionally that year group gets an additional 60 seats per the new guidance and the PSDM does not outline if those seats will come from the selects pool or not. So between the selects, the 215 seat reservation and the 60 seat reservation, your chances of going to school next year short of being the #1 in your wing is non existent. 

 

39 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Talking with my Rater last night it sounds like a pretty low chance to make this board without a DA. For one, the 07 year group still has quite of few selects to pile through. Additionally that year group gets an additional 60 seats per the new guidance and the PSDM does not outline if those seats will come from the selects pool or not. So between the selects, the 215 seat reservation and the 60 seat reservation, your chances of going to school next year short of being the #1 in your wing is non existent. 

 

As someone who got picked up last year, third look non-select, I can only hope SRs use their DA on their best non-select.  This would be a sure-fire way to ensure SRs got their top 2 folks into school.  If you're stratted number 3 or worse, odds will be extremely low...maybe you could pick up alternate and be a late bump to Maxwell.   

I believe the PSDM does say that SR's cannot use the DA on a select, as they are already guaranteed their school spot. It also says that SR's don't have to use their DA at all, if for whatever reason they choose that. I think third look is still going to be the sweet spot to get picked for going. I think stratification is going to matter now more than ever though as well.

What i'm forecasting is, being in a large wing is going to be detrimental to your chance to attend school. First off, all SR's only get 1 DA regardless of the size of their wing. That large denominator now hurts you because those are all extra people you are competing against. 

Reading this thread surprises me that this many people want/care to attend school..... 

Great point, idalpha

 

it’s a guaranteed ticket to Lt Col

but is that worth living in Alabama for 1 year?

and if you are good enormously hh to be selected to IDE, then you don’t need IDE to make Lt Col.... but perhaps it would help for O6

7 hours ago, IDALPHA said:

Reading this thread surprises me that this many people want/care to attend school..... 

Hope is the AF’s new retention tool.

Anyone have anything on writing a 2 line PRF?   Similar to a command board submission?   How many lines do 0-6s get for General? (I think 3)

Edited March 16, 20196 yr by bennynova

Great point, idalpha
 
it’s a guaranteed ticket to Lt Col

Please dear God tell me this isn’t the reason anyone does it.

You have a 75% chance these days of making Lt Col and if you aren’t in that group, you were never close to getting a school slot anyhow.


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Please dear God tell me this isn’t the reason anyone does it.

You have a 75% chance these days of making Lt Col and if you aren’t in that group, you were never close to getting a school slot anyhow.


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Not really. You have a 99% chance with a DP. You have about a 15% chance with a P.

Not sure how this impacts the O5 board, but my FAO buddy said there was a recent memo stating that any FAO schooling (usually NPS) will count as IDE in-res now.  This is done to boost the FAO promotion rate to O5.  Long over due in my opinion.

As for the 2-line PRF,  I have to believe at the Wing level you still need to submit a full PRF write-up, the ROP and all the associated crap so the SR can make an informed decision on who to push.  The 2-line PRF is just going to reduce the workload for the board members but not the candidates.

I'm spending way too much time discussing this topic...

Edited March 16, 20196 yr by panchbarnes

1 hour ago, panchbarnes said:

As for the 2-line PRF,  I have to believe at the Wing level you still need to submit a full PRF write-up, the ROP and all the associated crap so the SR can make an informed decision on who to push.  The 2-line PRF is just going to reduce the workload for the board members but not the candidates...

Sounds about right for the ole' USAF.  "Please do all this extra work so my job is easier."

when Does the work shift to someone else?

  I’ve always written my own PRFs and now looks like I probably have to write 2 of my own?!

   When I was a CGO, I always wrote my own OPRs

now that i’m not, I still write my own OPRs, but I also wrote everyone else’s too....

 

i’m sure Many of you are the same

17 hours ago, IDALPHA said:

Reading this thread surprises me that this many people want/care to attend school..... 

So I've talked to a lot of people in my peer group about this. I would say the majority of us don't "want" to go to school. However, we do want the option to go to school. There is a pretty distinctive difference there. 

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

So I've talked to a lot of people in my peer group about this. I would say the majority of us don't "want" to go to school. However, we do want the option to go to school. There is a pretty distinctive difference there. 

AKA: Guaranteed Lt Col promotion? 

4 hours ago, panchbarnes said:

Not sure how this impacts the O5 board, but my FAO buddy said there was a recent memo stating that any FAO schooling (usually NPS) will count as IDE in-res now.  This is done to boost the FAO promotion rate to O5.  Long over due in my opinion.

No impact. School method is masked at board. Before, board saw FAO with NPS in training records and school complete. Now, board will see FAO with NPS in training records and school complete. Won't boost FAO promotion rate. The AF beginning to value the institutional requirements those guys fill and what they bring to the table, might.

Not really. You have a 99% chance with a DP. You have about a 15% chance with a P.

I think it’s a bit higher with a “p” in the range of 45% however my point remains.

If you are one of the people not destined to make O-5 even with a P, you are not in the running for school.

Read another way: school slots usually go to people who were going to make O-5 regardless.


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