Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[ViperStud]

Mother######er please. Not everything is binary.

In this case I disagree. So far everyone keeps mentioning the free money for what they were going to do anyway. They either love the AF, were staying for the pension or didn't want to pursue (or didn't have) options outside of AD.

Other than the "free money for what they were going to do anyway" types, there are the ones that don't see the bonus as a good trade-off for the commitment that comes with it.

To prove it's not binary, someone needs to step up and say the bonus swayed them to stay in. Where are you? KH is right, the money is not the same (relatively) as it once was. $1500/mo to commit to an organization you weren't ready to commit to without the cash? Like he said, double it and we'll talk. And they can finally do that next FY.

Edit: fvcking Siri

Edited August 24, 2014 by ViperStud

[Cap-10]

The $18K after taxes back in 1999 would be around $26K in 2014 dollars.

Not rich enough for my blood.

Cap-10

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[Ram]

Usually I think Karl is way too negative, but I think I agree with him on this point. I think you were a sucker to take the bonus. I know you, and you are intelligent, competent, and in an organization that will waste your talents. You have colleagues at Standford Business School, with full time gigs in the guard and reserves, and starting what will someday be extremely cush jobs in the airlines. Because you are not a patch wearer, you will spend the next 10 years wallowing while doing things like:

-wing jobs (Yes sir, I'd love to be the chief of IGI!)

-getting passed over for O-6 because of your lack of staff experience (thanks 11F)

-a 365s as the OSS/CC to Djubouti (the Died... etc)

You will be 43 years old at 20 years in looking at the exact same decision about whether or not to fly for Delta with a pension check that will barely feed and house your family (assuming you don't get fired at 18 based on trumped up bullshit your WG/CC decides is unacceptable). You will fly less, see your family less, and be more vulnerable to deploy to shitty assignments. You had the potential to do anything you wanted, but chose not to for an extra $18k a year after taxes. The bonus, as I see it, is an awesome deal only for those who have no potential to succeed outside the military.

Since your assessment of me and my career track is wrong on multiple counts (like when you said I'm "intelligent" . . . HA!), I question if you really do know me. Maybe you're just being super serious over the interwebs.

In any event, I doubt anyone with a name like "Jaded" and a post history like yours can give an unbiased opinion of the second half of a 20+ year military career.

...but PM me if you want to talk offline. I'm game.

[Muscle2002]

In this case I disagree. So far everyone keeps mentioning the free money for what they were going to do anyway. They either love the AF, were staying for the pension or didn't want to pursue (or didn't have) options outside of AD.

Other than the "free money for what they were going to do anyway" types, there are the ones that don't see the bonus as a good trade-off for the commitment that comes with it.

To prove it's not binary, someone needs to step up and say the bonus swayed them to stay in. Where are you? KH is right, the money is not the same (relatively) as it once was. $1500/mo to commit to an organization you weren't ready to commit to without the cash? Like he said, double it and we'll talk. And they can finally do that next FY.

Edit: fvcking Siri

You keep mentioning next FY. I honestly don't know everything in the NDAA, so what leads you to think they may increase the amount?

[HeloDude]

Personally, trading some modicum of control over my life/career/etc isn't worth an $18k/yr boost that hasn't even matched inflation.

Let me ask you (and guys like ViperStud and Jaded) this: What do you guys care if guys decide to take the bonus? Some of you guys want to belittle the guys for taking it, but that's their prerogative and you don't know their individual situation/reasoning.

I have yet to see other line-pilot types (or any rated guys for that matter) give someone a hard time/tell them they're making a bad decision for NOT taking the bonus, yet there's the other side who gives folks a hard time FOR taking the bonus. I could care less if you and others do not take the bonus, whether you decide to stay in as a free agent or get out. If you get out, I will thank you for your service and wish you the best. But I think your anger in the AF is over your own situation, not at the vast majority of the other guys who decide to stay in.

Back to the conversation on the bonus itself--if these takes rates end up being as bad as they seem when the program ends, I agree that the Air Force will realize they have bigger problems and will need to do something about it. As for raising the amount of the annual bonus, that will have to be in the approved budget/appropriation that comes out of Congress next year, though the AF could always extend the bonus to 20 years to other types of pilots vs just fighter guys. Interesting times, that's for sure!

[frog]

Geez, there are some sensitive folks. How about this: people tend to make the best decisions for themselves and their families based on the available information. It really is that simple. You really don't need to justify your decision by ridiculing someone else.

[Flaco]

NPV Calculation: Bonus vs. Airlines

Scenario 1: 11 year major takes the bonus, retires at 20 as Lt Col.

Scenario 2: Guy punches from AD, immediately gets hired by Delta, flies 757 till year 6, year 7 starts flying 767-400.

Notes, warnings, cautions:

1.) Retirement benefits not considered. A whole other (and more complicated) discussion.

2.) I took per-hour airline pay from AirlinePilotCentral.com and multiplied by 1,000. Don't know how accurate that is as far as gross pay, I've heard it's a close approximation for the average guy.

3.) I included the tax benefits of AD (no tax on BAS/BAH) and also added in the estimated monthly value of health care to try and make apples to apples comparison. I'm using my own BAH and flight pay, adjust accordingly for your own situation.

4.) I'm assuming the opportunity cost of capital is 7%. Could be more or less for you.

Short version: Present Value of cash flows from staying on AD with the bonus is about $200,000 greater than going to the airlines with the above assumptions.

ETA: If anyone knows how to paste data from excel into the body of the post and retain formatting, please let me know.

Airlines vs AGR.pdf

Edited August 24, 2014 by Flaco

[ViperStud]

Helodude, valid point and if I came off as insulting dudes for taking it that was not my point - I blame the scotchies and vino last night. I leave AD with no ill feelings, in fact I was very close to taking an assignment (my #1 choice, #2 location) and signing the big bonus. I'm not bitter at all about my time on AD, but I am cynical toward our leadership all the way to the top. I've got bros nearing retirement that are getting hit with 365s right as dwell time expires, in fact one of them got hit with one after submitting his retirement request. Big fight and got it turned off, but AFPC wasn't even playing by their own rules when they hit him.

My sarcasm is because of this - there is a certain naïveté involved with at least 2 people I know that took the 20YAS bonus. I believe AFPC hates having free agents, and they (the 2 bros I speak of) think that no consideration at all will be given to who is & is not committed via ADSC when bad deals come down. Dudes 7-day opted Holloman like you read about. The community can't afford to keep going through several dudes to get one to take the assignment, so you think they won't start handing the worse deals to the bros that can't say no? I think they will have to, and that's the real cost of the bonus.

The bonus is a good deal for those staying in anyway, and I was really on the fence, but does little to actually retain people. If you asked me a year ago I would not have foreseen me passing up a good assignment and the bonus, but the right job on the outside can change things quickly. Obviously the $$ wasn't enough. I hemmed and hawed a lot. If it was $50K/yr that would have made the decision a lot tougher.

Yes, people will continue to do what is best for their families and every situation is different. Two things are total wildcards though. First, a lot of people the AF wants to keep are getting out, so manning policies/practices a few years from now are impossible to predict (not in a good way I think). Second, insults are not toward the bonus-takers but rather toward the bonus itself - I don't think it's retaining very many people. AFPC cannot affect QOL, the only thing they can do is throw more money at the problem, if authorized to do so. I'm willing to bet that happens.

Edited August 24, 2014 by ViperStud

[Champ Kind]

with a pension check that will barely feed and house your family

Wait, what?

[ViperStud]

Flaco, it's all in the assumptions. I ran the same numbers while deployed, included AD retirement pay and airline 401k matching, calculated airline pay exactly based on guaranteed hrs per month, assumed modest 2%/yr raises, and ran the numbers for staying in (then going airlines) vs punching now for the airlines and getting a guard/reserve pension at 20. If you left out that piece you are missing a large series of cash flows. Also, I would argue against using 7%, I used 3. That's a realistic inflation rate to get all those cash flows in 2014 dollars, 7% assumes everything is invested which only works if you plan on living in a cardboard box with no expenses; it severely undervalues your income in later years.

The numbers were in favor of getting out by a NPV of 300K to 550K depending on how long you plan on working. More than that if you go to the left seat. Anything that does not include ANG/res pay and pension, AD pension, and 401K matching is incomplete.

Ended up not being a big factor for me since I'm not going to the airlines, but I strongly disagree that it is profitable to stay in. PM me your email if anyone wants to see the math.

[chim richalds]

It shouldn't take math to prove it's a disadvantage financially to stay in, thats why a "bonus" is offered. If it made financial sense to stay in, they wouldn't need to offer incentives. That being said, theres nothing wrong with staying in, especially if you don't want to fly when you get out. Just don't bitch when you get a 365, they have you by the balls if you sign up for more pain after your 10 years.

[sqwatch]

Because you are not a patch wearer, you will spend the next 10 years wallowing while doing things like:

-wing jobs (Yes sir, I'd love to be the chief of IGI!)

-getting passed over for O-6 because of your lack of staff experience (thanks 11F)

-a 365s as the OSS/CC to Djubouti (the Died... etc)

You will be 43 years old at 20 years in looking at the exact same decision about whether or not to fly for Delta with a pension check that will barely feed and house your family (assuming you don't get fired at 18 based on trumped up bullshit your WG/CC decides is unacceptable). You will fly less, see your family less, and be more vulnerable to deploy to shitty assignments.

Weird. My wing/cc, ccv, and og/cc are not patch wearers. Weird.

They did go in-res to school though.

[ShavedDogsAss]

...it's all in the assumptions...AD retirement pay...401k matching... assumed modest 2%...getting a guard/reserve pension at 20...Also, against using 7%

Ended up not being a big factor for me since I'm not going to the airlines..

Dude, no one joined the Air Force to make bank. You've apparently got a great deal going, and I'm actually a bit jealous. I've seen more than a few folks who would be flag O's get out, and I've always been astonished at the reasons why. Because not one of them is anything but a bulletproof argument. I honestly believe each of them to be a better man than I.

Now, if somewhere deep down you need to justify to everyone else why you are getting out, then I get it. But, for those of us staying in who have no ulterior motive, it serves no purpose. We are willing to stay in because this is where we want to be. 365's are no more fun for us than for you. AFPC is not my bogeyman, even though not once have I gotten a base even on my list of preferences.

Airlines pay more. Got it. So does being a decent investment broker. If pay was all we (yourself included) cared about, many, many of us could have been lawyers or surgeons.

You're bordering on belittling anyone who chooses to stay til 20, and I think your cynicism is getting the best of you.

FWIW, I think the ARP (ACP?) Numbers are skewed because the office has been so slow to process them. I take no interpretation until the data ending on 30 September has been included.

...too much booze for a Sunday night...

Edited August 25, 2014 by ShavedDogsAss

[rtgators]

The X5s are test and eval. The website means nothing because it only shows finalized applications. AFPC has plenty of applications they are working and you will see a 'linear' rise in the stats as the 1 person deep shop can only finalize so many in one day.

[rtgators]

Bonus will not go up next year. It takes a ULB and the requested increase didnt make it past the FY15 omnibus last year.

No bait and switch on the early eligible. The Navy already does this and allows folks to be paid on time and not wait until the next program rolls out...which can't happen until the NDAA is finalized. Didnt realize their was that much distrust in the system so next year rated policy will try to include policy that lets only early eligible that have already signed renegotiate a contract if the bonus goes up.

[Gravedigger]

Bonus will not go up next year. It takes a ULB and the requested increase didnt make it past the FY15 omnibus last year.

No bait and switch on the early eligible. The Navy already does this and allows folks to be paid on time and not wait until the next program rolls out...which can't happen until the NDAA is finalized. Didnt realize their was that much distrust in the system so next year rated policy will try to include policy that lets only early eligible that have already signed renegotiate a contract if the bonus goes up.

Check out the big brain on Brad!

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Edited August 25, 2014 by Gravedigger

[rtgators]

Feeling inadequate Gravedigger? Some people may actually want the inside scoop...

[Gravedigger]

Eh? I think you missed the meaning of my post; It was meant as a compliment. It's not too often that you read actual facts on Baseops...

[rtgators]

Ok. Yup, I'm going to stay away from the opinion pieces on this thread. Since I'm currently in the policy shop, I want to make sure people can create opinions on factual data. I surely didn't understand it when I was flying the line.

[Homestar]

B = Bonus till 20

C = 5 year Bonus

It was on myPers, somewhere...

I found it under the "ARP Option Definitions" on the ARP site in myPers. I'd post the link but my work computer blocks BODN, so here is the content:

Code B:

- 20 years aviation service: initial eligible fighter pilot (11F)

- 20 years aviation service with 50% up front: initial eligible fighter pilot (11F)

Code C:

- 5 years: initial eligible pilot

- 5 years with 50% up front: initial eligible fighter pilot (11F) and pilots also qualified to fly RPAs (11U)

- 5 years: initial eligible weapons system operators (12F) only

Hopefully that saves someone the 15 minutes it took for me to find it.

[TnkrToad]

Sorting by base is interesting as well.

The ACP take rate stats are updated as of 27 Aug

While I fully understand that, like Double Jeopardy, the scores can really change, the sorting by base and Majcom is interesting:

- The lowest take rates by MAJCOMs are for ACC & AMC--two of the three largest MAJCOMs by pilot eligibles, with take rates (thus far) of 14.02% and 16.67%, respectively. Doesn't seem all that inspiring.

- AETC has a whopping 26.05% take rate thus far--but given that they own those currently in IDE, this seems low

-- It's interesting that Altus only has 1 out of 18 takers so far--I assume that's a bright-and-shiny IDE select type

One question for other tanker dudes out there: how in the world is it that there are only 3 ACP eligibles at McConnell--a super tanker base? The other tanker bases, as far as I can tell, don't have a whole bunch of eligibles either.

- Where are the tanker pilots from this year group? Have they all gotten out already, are they already stuck in staff purgatory, or what?

Just curious.

[Prozac]

I'd be willing to bet even their senior IPs are, on average, still a few years away from being eligible. AMC AD crew force seems very young these days from what I've seen.

[Jaded]

Wait until October before taking too much stock in the numbers. They change a lot each September.

[rtgators]

Yup...all you are seeing is finalized applications not ones being worked or waiting to be worked. These WILL go up with each new update!

[TnkrToad]

Yup...all you are seeing is finalized applications not ones being worked or waiting to be worked. These WILL go up with each new update!

I get that the numbers will keep going up--I guess I didn't make my point clearly enough. Since you're apparently a policy wonk, maybe you can help with this:

- The number of ACP takers won't go any higher than the total number of eligibles

- Looking at the tanker community at least, the number of eligibles seems surprisingly low

-- According to the AFPC stats, only 77 total KC-135 pilots total are eligible (40 less than the F-16 community's 117 eligibles)

--- We live in a weird world if the Viper community is 50% bigger than the tanker community

-- McConnell--a super tanker wing, in a command where tankers comprise a significant amount of the mobility fleet, only has 3 eligibles. This makes zero sense to me

-- The other tanker bases don't seem to have many eligibles either, esp since many of the other tanker bases (Kadena, Mildenhall, MacDill...) have multiple MDSs

Question for you, rtgators--where the #%^* are all the tanker bubbas? I remember plenty of copilots flowing into flying squadrons 10 years ago. What has Big Blue done with them all?

To tie this more clearly to the ACP discussion--if Big Blue has mismanaged the tanker community (which appears to be the case, given low numbers of eligibles), I sure hope the take rate increases dramatically over the next month or so.

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