30 minutes ago Uk Defense Minister John Healey resigned and sent a scathing letter to the PM claiming the defense of Great Britain is at risk and highlighting intelligence assessments from the UK and other European countries (not the U.S.), predicting an attack by Russian on NATO by 2030.

It is important to note this is a long serving and very left leaning politician. If you follow European politics you will know there was great press two years ago when the Labor party came back to power...arguing "the adults are back in control." Now the realities of the world are colliding with unchecked immigration, entitlement spending and an inability to fund the defense of the nation. When the left leaning DM calls out the PM and publicly resigns you know there are issues and threats that need to be addressed.

Have you considered maybe he was forced out by the party and is playing politics to cause damage / prep his political prospects?

I generally don't go from not believing a politician from a different party to all of the sudden hanging on every word just because they're saying something that fits my world view.

50 minutes ago, Boomer6 said:

Have you considered maybe he was forced out by the party and is playing politics to cause damage / prep his political prospects?

I generally don't go from not believing a politician from a different party to all of the sudden hanging on every word just because they're saying something that fits my world view.

I have considered that like ALWAYS you are the contrarian to almost anything I or anyone conservative posts.

For the record, I have several VERY close Brit friends that I served with for many years. Both have been discussing and sharing with me for months. The major point to be made is the intel apparatus in Europe believes Russia may attack and all you can do is twist it into yet another passive aggressive personal attack about my rationale.

Not downplaying the threat of Russia but methinks they have other more pressing threats than a Russia tied up in Ukraine

@ClearedHot

Do you think the letter released above was a wag the dog tactic in reference to the Belfast attack and proximity to the Henry Nowak murder?

It’s interesting reading the letter, the British establishment is still in denial about where they are now and the direction of travel of their country. It’s not good, ours is better than theirs still challenging with our own problems ahead but different.

It’s important for them to be a credible and capable NATO partner but power and power in excess to be able to project it for whatever reason comes from security, stability and prosperity at home.

Personally, I think they should take the prediction and analysis of Prof David Betz very seriously.

https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west-part-ii-strategic-realities/

Edited Thursday at 08:43 PM5 days by Clark Griswold

With the enormous loss of people and hardware in the current entanglement with Ukraine, how is Russia going to pull off going further afield attacking several more countries (with a couple nuke holders in the mix) in the next 4 years?

1 hour ago, TreeA10 said:

With the enormous loss of people and hardware in the current entanglement with Ukraine, how is Russia going to pull off going further afield attacking several more countries (with a couple nuke holders in the mix) in the next 4 years?

First, you are thinking like a rational actor which Putin is not.

Second, Russian has almost completely transitioned to a wartime economy with full 8% of GDP being spent on the the military. Even with the enormous loss of equipment their military production transitioned to a surplus last September and they are accelerating.

Third, People are another issue, but that has never stopped Russia and the lunatic in charge will continue on that path.

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

First, you are thinking like a rational actor which Putin is not.

can you explain how he is irrational? seems very rational to me.

Putin's stupid because he thought he needed to do what he's doing. He's not irrational though. He felt it was necessary to keep a buffer between him and NATO, while also ensuring that Ukraine wouldn't become a major supplier of energy to Europe. It's a good rational. It just was completely unnecessary.

Judging by Russian performance, I'd bet what Putin gets briefed is not how things actually are...which leads to decisions based on "it's all good Boss!" Those can appear pretty irrational.

On 6/11/2026 at 11:50 AM, Clark Griswold said:

Not downplaying the threat of Russia but methinks they have other more pressing threats than a Russia tied up in Ukraine

This problem is an easy fix but there is a lack of political appetite to actually solve this - same could be said in this country until recently.

I'm not sure if and whether Russia is interested or even capable of gaining territory further into the European continent, especially the UK and Western Europe. Surely they are a malign actor, and a persistent threat to the Baltics and Eastern Europe. But I dont know that they have their eyes set in any meaningful way on Germany, France, UK, etc. Happy to have my mind changed on that, Putin is a bad dude indeed.

I do believe Europe is at a civilizational tipping point, and I dont think Russia is the cause. A few years ago I would have rolled my eyes at populists and right-wingers who blamed "Globalism" and the uniparty/elites/NGO complex. The past year Ive changed my perspective. Broadly I think the dogma of liberal universalism, global movement of people/goods/money, and abstract ideas have been taken to their breaking point.

Jd Vance and Marco Rubio's speeches to the Munich Conference and EU/NATO folks were also informative. I think they were on to something much deeper than just spending X% of GDP on defense. Yes, EU/NATO have sucked on the teet of the US defense arsenal for 30+ years and are woefully behind investing in their fleets, aircraft, technology, weapons, etc. And their ranks are thin. But even if they could magically flip the switch, crank up production, and field new weapons/platforms there are more substantial issues.

Politically and econimically, Western Europe is a mess. They let go of manufacturing, built massive welfare states with dependent patronages, bought off on Net-Zero climate nonsense courtesy of a petulant swedish girl, and made housing and everyday living out of reach for working and middle class citizens. I beleive the recent quote I heard was that Mississippi (our poorest state) was wealthier per capita than the UK. On top of that, they thought-police their citizens, quash dissent, and subordinate national sovereignty to corrupt technocrats. Imagine youre a 25 year old Brit/Frenchman/German...cant afford a place to live or raise a family (while 3rd worlders live off the system). Would those young Europeans go fight the Ruskis on behalf of their political leaders?

Take this one step further. The past 30 years has brought massive social, cultural, and demographic change to Western Europe. London is now ~30% white British, Viennas public schools are almost majority Muslim. Street violence, urban decay, capitulation to multiculturalism, DEI, etc at the cost of the native culture (psychologist Erik Kaufman calls this "asymmetric multiculturalism).

Finally, the grooming gangs. If you are unaware, for the past 30+ years, groups of predominantly Pakistani muslim men groomed, r*ped, and abused thousands of white British girls, mostly lower/working class. They were subjected to the most heinous, gruesome abuse...and worse yet, British authorities knew and largely did nothing. The inquiry is slowly being made public, and IMO is shaping up to be the crime of the century. Some estimates say upwards of 250,000 girls were abused, some killed, many gang r*ped by groups of foreigners. They saw it as an act of conquest, the state covered it up as not to arouse "anger" or upset the multicultural experiment. The epitome of suicidal empathy and frankly a civilization-ending phenomena.

https://spectator.com/article/why-liberals-ignored-the-grooming-gang-scandal/

A commentor above mentioned David Betz and his prediction of civil war. I read his papers a year ago and have listened to several of his interviews. He is a traditional academic, not an activist, mild mannered and level headed (from what I gather). Given the stabbings, violence, grooming/r*pe gangs across Europe, I cant help but agree completely. He has made his way into semi-mainstream podcasts and journalism, and I havent seen any substantive criticism of his claims. Just the grooming gangs alone are enough to convince me a civil war in the Uk is inevitable (if not already underway).

And for that reason, I cant foresee those young Brits/Frenchmen/Germans/etc going to the eastern front to fight Vlad. Why would they? Their own nations have been hollowed out, made unafforable, and their leaders gleefully subordinate sovereign, native interests to hostile foreigners. And if all the fighting age men went East, who would guard their own cities and towns?? No, if anything, those young men will likely revolt against their own governments and attempt to restore what was once a good culture and civilization. Very concerning, but probable IMO.

For those reasons, I dont believe Russia is Europe's number 1 threat. Putin is a bad dude, but whats happened in their own countries is far worse. Sorry for the rant. Brevity not my strong suit.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by Milton