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Everything posted by gearhog
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A family member works at Lowe's. That company is a mess. If there's a big-ticket item on sale that you really want, ask to talk to the Manager or ASM. You would not believe how many items have an "out-the-backdoor" price that's much lower than your military discount. They can override prices down to pennies on the dollar with a few keystrokes. We have more than a few local stores whose inventories are entirely comprised of products Lowe's practically gives away.
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Hope you're doing well, brother.
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Now you've done it. Let's revisit this post in a year.
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You definitely posted it in the correct thread. That was absolutely horrible. LOL
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I took a screenshot because it was so bizarre. She seems like a psycho in her other vid. And definitely a stripper.
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The youtube comments are pretty f'd up
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Commanders are dropping like flies this year
gearhog replied to MDDieselPilot's topic in General Discussion
Kinda makes you long for the day when a good old-fashioned ass-kicking immediately resolved these types of situations. -
I'd recommend putting the earliest date you can be reasonably assured you can be standing in the training center ready to start ground school. You want the earliest seniority number you can possibly get. It's highly unlikely that you'll be in a situation where both your gaining unit and your airline will all refuse to work with you on dates if a conflict arises after you're hired.
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Just walked out of it out here in LA. Best war movie since Saving Private Ryan. I shit you not.
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I was texting with some friends who were happy that our TSP was doing well this past year. Here's a few articles I've found the past few days: Over 1700 announced of possible 12,000 expected major retail stores closing in 2020 https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-in-2020-list-2020-1 2019 Auto Sales lowest in 5 years https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2020/us-2019-auto-sales-were-lowest-in-five-years/ Auto Sales supported by sub-prime lending while delinquencies rise https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315102-auto-sector-will-continue-to-decline-2020s Auto Dealers falsifying buyer’s income on car-loan applications https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-809-car-payment-a-660-income-how-dealers-make-the-math-work-11576924201?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3 Baltic Dry Index largest drop since 2008 https://capital.com/baltic-dry-suffers-largest-drop-since-2008 ISM Manufacturing Index 10 year low https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etfs-suffer-ism-index-drops-210709628.html US Rail Traffic down %5.1% since last year https://www.freightwaves.com/news/us-rail-traffic-starts-off-new-year-in-a-slump Nine States are experiencing a contracting economy https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/leading So why is the Market going up? Lots of reasons, but here is one biggie: The Federal Reserve bank has been pumping (printing) hundreds of billions into the repo market since September as posted about earlier. More announced just a few days ago. The four biggest primary lenders (JP Morgan, Citi, B of A, and Wells Fargo) need that cash to keep hedge funds afloat. These massive hedge funds are borrowing money to buy equities, which drives the market up. Hedge fund purchases and corporate buybacks are masking the real business values. If hedge funds have trouble making these loan payments, they stop buying. If they don’t keep buying, stock prices stagnate. If they liquidate to make payments, prices decline. In short, the US government is printing money for the purpose of allowing banks and hedge funds to gamble borrowed money in a rigged game, and you are assuming the risk. The Market is following the increasing Fed Balance Sheet and little else. We can’t print money indefinitely while the government runs a $1 Trillion dollar per year deficit. So, when we stop printing, no repo market funds, hedge funds liquidate to pay bills, stocks decline, a panic and rush for the exit ensues. Wall street will be the first to the exit and they’ll be taking the bulk of the cash with them. Passive investors like you and I will be at the back of the line. Don’t fall in love with your TSP gains and I feel bad for anyone signed up with BRS. Keep an eye on this link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details#monthly-summary
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You’re denial email should be waiting in your inbox in the AM. JK. Congrats! I punched in Oct and it’s awesome.
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Commanders are dropping like flies this year
gearhog replied to MDDieselPilot's topic in General Discussion
Do you think this guy would have been crucified if aircraft were damaged by failing to evacuate? -
This is what I believe is happening. Our adversaries know a full-scale conventional war against the US cannot be won without first weakening our economic foundation and national will. They are risking actions that they believe will keep us engaged in the ME at a tremendous cost to the US but without crossing the line into open unlimited conflict. Iran is already suffering under economic sanctions, so they're accepting higher levels of risk while being quietly supported by China and Russia. They are simply trying to bleed us out.
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Very sorry to hear this. My condolences to all who knew him. I only knew him here, but he contributed a lot over the years. Rest in Peace, Pyro. 🍺
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Damn. I don't want to misinterpret this. Can you give some more details?
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Guard C-130 lifestyle
gearhog replied to PasserOGas's topic in Air National Guard / Air Force Reserves
Last I heard, there were somewhere around 8-12 J models slated for production in the last budget. They had narrowed the list of potential units that were being considered to receive them in a conversion from Hs to Js. As far as I know, the unit/units have not been selected yet. For details, I recommend calling the NGB and ask for Chief Lengyel. -
I'm gonna go ahead and say lunar deployments suck and the astronaut bonus is an insult.
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I wish I knew the answer. I have a conservative amount of physical precious metals (about 5-10%). If nothing else, it feels good to have some physical assets that will always retain value under your own roof. Gold backed crypto-currency sounds promising, but I haven't done the homework on that yet. I've always been a passive investor and shorting seems like a lot of work, so I haven't gone that route. 30 year mortgages on investment rental properties is another idea. You can raise the rent to keep pace with inflation, but your locked in principle and low interest rate may hold value better than market investments. I've pulled the majority of my non-401K market investments out to go with this strategy. Only time will tell if that's the right move.
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Have you ever met a baby that didn't?
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Translation: Banks are in trouble, the economy is in trouble, and Trump wants to artificially prop up the economy long enough to get reelected. He's attempting to make it sound as if it's for exports, but it's really to save the financial system. He's concerned. If the Fed prints money to buy bad loans or other poor performing securities to rescue banks, it's called QE. If you or I print money to buy anything, it's called counterfeiting. The Fed is dumping a fuck-ton of money into the economy and with low/negative interest rates, it is forcing banks to lend it essentially free instead of parking it somewhere. Big money is currently hoarding cash/liquid assets because they currently think it's better to take a hit on inflation than loan defaults and/or big market losses coming down the pike. That could be why there is no money in the repo (repurchase agreement) market, but I'm no expert. It's akin to a bank walking into a pawn shop and saying they need $10,000 to give out in loans that they will repay tomorrow with interest, and using a brand new corvette as collateral. They pawn shop (lending bank) says, "That's a fantastic deal, but we have no money to give you." Things are in danger of coming to halt until the Fed shows up at the pawn shop and hands over a warm stack of freshly printed $100 bills just to keep all interested parties' businesses from tanking. This new money will take a minute to circulate through the financial system, and when it starts hitting the pockets of the average wage-earner, the price of everything will soar. The purchasing power of your nest egg in the bank falls dramatically. The average person will have less discretionary spending because they'll be spending earnings on the ballooning prices of milk, bread, utilities, healthcare, car payments, student loan payments, credit card payments, and mortgages. When money gets tight and cards are maxed, less consumer goods are purchased and loan payments slow. Borrowers default and it's 2007-8 again, but with multiple bubbles. Your savings and cash accounts are devalued, and your retirement/401K is crushed. Tax revenue shrinks while the Federal Government continues to spend $1 Trillion more (and growing) per year than it receives. The only question is: "How long?"
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Guard C-130 lifestyle
gearhog replied to PasserOGas's topic in Air National Guard / Air Force Reserves
The latest round of J model conversions hasn't been released yet. -
Here's a couple good vids. Forgive the "Click-baity" thumbnails, the actual content is good. This guy (George Gammon) just recently started explaining current macroeconomics via Youtube videos and I highly recommend his channel for anyone who is interested in the things that are currently happening. He's fantastic at explaining the issues to those of us who aren't expert economists. He has another vid on his channel explaining the Repo Market (above) and why this is a major event. Here's another great explanation:
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Hate to beat a dead horse if no one is interested, but just some friendly advice to do a little reading up on the repo market, interest rates, inflation and what this means for any savings/investments you have. FIVE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS.