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DuckHunter

North Korea at it again

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13 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

 

IDK all the effects either but like a lot of things it’s not the idea per se but the execution.

 

Redeployment would be gradual but positive, every year unless a new aggression causes a pause, we gradually pull out (sts) or transition to a new stabilization/deterrence posture (ref a hypothetical Korean unification stabilization mission).

 

It would not be an exactly even process but about 10% per year of capacity in theater would be redeployed from one phase to the next and/or the final withdrawal phase (assuming the conditions for redevelopment or withdrawal are met)

I want to sell what you are smoking...10 years without aggression in that part of the world and even if we discount all Korea agression, we would have a high bar for China and Russia aggression.

 

either way let me know when I can invest

Happy New Years, cheers!

1 hour ago, matmacwc said:

You need to ask If we are there because of the crazy fat man or China, me thinks both.

Shack! It ain’t binary in terms of NK vs no NK

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18 minutes ago, 1111 said:

I want to sell what you are smoking...10 years without aggression in that part of the world and even if we discount all Korea agression, we would have a high bar for China and Russia aggression.

either way let me know when I can invest

The weed of the serenity prayer: fix the things I can, accept the things I can't and have the wisdom to know the difference between the two.

Aggression would be on a scale, not every incident would mean deal breaking aggression.  Like pornography vs art, we would know when we see it...

Happy New Year also.

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7 hours ago, HossHarris said:

You assume, of course, that reunification would look like South Korea ..... 

Valid.

6 hours ago, 1111 said:

We can break the ice in other ways, but if North and South does not want reunification or they can’t agreee on who leads then we are left with us regime changing and figuring it out afterwards. The latter option has yet to bear fruit anywhere for us. I say keep working all the other yet to be used non kinetic means unless we just use the phook it option (i.e. regime change)

You bring an interesting line, if your proposed option was a reality, how much of a reduced US presence would we set upon?

would the US truly leave a unified Korea to China and Russia?

Interesting as well. With this DMZ option, do you see the US being able to hold influence in this region through “support and arms”?

disclaimer: I am all for leaving but it will also come along with a strong loss of influence in the region. 

I'm not saying they have to "agree" on anything, per se. The deal hinges on China agreeing to absorb the Kim problem, either through offering asylum or direct regime change. In return, they get fewer (or no) US forces on their doorstep and a chance to gain diplomatically (act like a superpower... show diplomacy) and economically (trade deals to gain on SK tech and resources). I'm thinking of an agreed plan to unify the peninsula (ROK/US in the south and China/DPRK in the north) by neutralizing the governments within and slowly doing what @Clark Griswold mentioned, create a unified Korean Army/Navy/Air Force w/ related Republican government.

What do we gain? One less dictator in control of nukes, a much reduced chance of nuclear conflict and an opportunity to expand our values abroad while not doing it at the point of a knife. Our forces in ROK could find other allies in the region willing to base us... or simply bring them home. 

The premise of this entire thing is that once exposed to the light of the ROK and US, the people of the DPRK will move towards capitalism and democracy. Is it a gamble? Oh yeah it is. But, I'd rather have 50yrs of cloak and dagger détente (between two superpowers) in a stable, non-nuclear Korea than a rampaging lunatic with his finger on the button that poses a threat to the world in general.

Edited by Kiloalpha
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36 minutes ago, Kiloalpha said:

Valid.

I'm not saying they have to "agree" on anything, per se. The deal hinges on China agreeing to absorb the Kim problem, either through offering asylum or direct regime change. In return, they get fewer (or no) US forces on their doorstep and a chance to gain diplomatically (act like a superpower... show diplomacy) and economically (trade deals to gain on SK tech and resources). I'm thinking of an agreed plan to unify the peninsula (ROK/US in the south and China/DPRK in the north) by neutralizing the governments within and slowly doing what @Clark Griswold mentioned, create a unified Korean Army/Navy/Air Force w/ related Republican government.

What do we gain? One less dictator in control of nukes, a much reduced chance of nuclear conflict and an opportunity to expand our values abroad while not doing it at the point of a knife. Our forces in ROK could find other allies in the region willing to base us... or simply bring them home. 

The premise of this entire thing is that once exposed to the light of the ROK and US, the people of the DPRK will move towards capitalism and democracy. Is it a gamble? Oh yeah it is. But, I'd rather have 50yrs of cloak and dagger détente (between two superpowers) in a stable, non-nuclear Korea than a rampaging lunatic with his finger on the button that poses a threat to the world in general.

I see your viewpoint. It is heavily dependent on China. 

Sounds like we have a losing hand in your option, why should China help if they calculate that KJU will not be the first one to fire? 

If China calculates right and does nothing, sounds a lot like a US pre-emptive strike. Good luck.

 

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