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mcbush

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mcbush last won the day on November 10 2018

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About mcbush

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  1. Elmo C-12s are a small enough program that you probably still need to know someone and do some networking though, despite the assignments being posted online now. PM me if you need help getting in touch with the right folks. Great gig and one of the better kept secrets out there.
  2. Can you help me build some SA on why it’s so important not to have any gap during the transition? How severe is the ass pain that results from a break in service?
  3. Not that she's got anything on current day Charlie, but it sounds like Jennifer Connelly's taking over the role
  4. Unless you actually need the money now, you're better off just holding on and riding the wave. Many studies show that buy-and-hold outperforms market timing >69% of the time. Think about it this way - let's say you sell today and there is a 10% correction immediately after that. If you sell and pay $9k in taxes, you're left with $91k. If you hold and eat a 10% dip, you're sitting at $90k... virtually identical scenarios. On the other hand, if you sell now and the market goes up another 10%, you're talking about the difference between $91k and $110k and you're going to be kicking yourself. Couple that with the fact that the market tends to rise over time, and holding starts to look even better. Short term losses and gains are almost impossible to predict, but macro performance in the long- to very long-term is actually pretty easy: the market's going to go up, and the longer you hold on, the better your odds are of capturing that return. Here's another example. Let's say you're 35-40 right now and don't need the money right away, so you're looking at a 30-year horizon for your investments. What are the odds that the market will rise over the course of those 30 years? Obviously there aren't any guarantees about the future, but if you use the past as a guide, you would say virtually 100%. If you look at the performance of the S&P 500 over the past century, and try to pick the absolute worst time to invest (at the market peak immediately prior to the Great Depression) with a 30-year horizon, you're still looking at about an 8% annual return over that time period. If you let short-term fear and emotions rule out, you might get lucky here and there, but the odds aren't in your favor when you're betting against that kind of long-term macroeconomic trend. Hold on long enough though, and you're almost guaranteed to win.
  5. The select and non-select lists for both the O-4 and O-5 boards made it down to the wing exec level today, at least in my neck of the woods. PSDM says no one’s supposed to find out until public release on 9 Jul, but if you have any bros working the desk, they should have the data for you.
  6. To be clear, it was Barr, not Mueller, who said that Mueller hadn’t found anything to charge him with, regardless of DOJ policy. Tell me if that matches Mueller’s opinion on the matter, verbatim from the statement he gave earlier this week: “...we did not, however, make a determination as to whether the president did commit a crime. The introduction to volume two of our report explains that decision. It explains that under long-standing department policy, a president cannot be charged with a federal crime while he is in office. That is unconstitutional. Even if the charge is kept under seal and hidden from public view, that, too, is prohibited. The special counsel's office is part of the Department of Justice and by regulation, it was bound by that department policy. Charging the president with a crime was, therefore, not an option we could consider. The department's written opinion explaining the policy makes several important points that further informed our handling of the obstruction investigation. Those points are summarized in our report and I will describe two of them for you. First, the opinion explicitly permits the investigation of a sitting president because it is important to preserve evidence while memories are fresh and documents available. Among other things, that evidence could be used if there were co-conspirators who could be charged now. And second, the opinion said that the constitution requires a process other than the criminal justice system to formally accuse a sitting president of wrongdoing. And beyond department policy, we were guided by principles of fairness. It would be unfair to potentially accuse somebody of a crime when there can be no court resolution of the actual charge. So that was justice department policy, those were the principles under which we operated and from them, we concluded we would not reach a determination one way or the other about whether the president committed a crime.” Full transcript
  7. Promoting 100% of eligibles is hard.
  8. Honestly I don’t even know why you guys take the time to discuss this. We’re not any closer to fielding a new airframe than we were 10 years and 1400 posts ago. The Air Force will never make the intelligent move to acquire a light attack platform.
  9. Valid for a kill, kill called
  10. Copy, just wondering what proportion of ROTC/OTS guys EAD before the Academy folks every year. i.e. if 2000 people are getting promoted, do the USAFA grads generally end up with line numbers 200-900, 1200-1900, etc. I’m sure it ebbs and flows a bit and isn’t important in the long run, just curious.
  11. On a totally different note, any SA or WAGs out there about what range of line numbers the academy guys usually wind up with for O-4?
  12. I don't have any sort of inside scoop, but the way I read it, this should apply to everyone.
  13. Obviously one of the stupidest ideas ever, but for a surprisingly large number of reasons. Obviously it's ridiculous on its face, and it's ridiculous to think that people won't figure out how to bypass it, but the math on it is crazy too. Arizona has a population of 6.4 million people. If we assume half are men and half are women, and we trust the stats thrown out at Church last Sunday (no shit, thanks Church) that 85% of men and 33% of women watch porn, that gives us a maximum of 3.8 million total viewers even if we include kids of all ages. Multiply that times the $20 mentioned and you're generating a maximum of $76 million. By suggesting that border security is "the first" of the causes to be funded by this, she's implying that it would pay for more that just that, which is crazy stupid. AZ represents almost exactly 20% of the total length of the US-Mexico border, meaning raising $76m for AZ would be roughly equivalent to raising $380m for border security for the entire country, which is 6.6% of what Trump is currently asking for to get started on his wall, and somewhere between 0.4-1.5% of its total estimated cost, depending on who you believe. Sit down, Gail.
  14. This checks from what I remember last year. MilTax was just a different name on the same program. Finding the right link is always impossible, though.
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