On 1/13/2020 at 5:19 PM, Bigred said:

Ah, my bad, and sure. This will be promotion rate/DP rate. Dunno if it's on MyPers yet.

LAF-A: 90% / 50%
LAF-N: 85% / 45%
LAF-S: 90% / 50%
LAF-I: 90%  / 50%
LAF-C: 85% / 45%
LAF-F: 85% / 45%

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

1 hour ago, 14N Guy said:

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

You’re being compared to your peers instead of someone in a completely different AFSC who may have had more leadership opportunities.  I’m guessing you are Intel?  Most Intel majors I know are crushing it as SIO.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t look as good on paper compared to the MSG Major that’s already a Squadron Commander.  Nor does being the overall mission commander for a Red Flag Ex as say a Pilot to an MSG on the promotion board. Now, you are compared to your fellow SIOs/pilots to pilots etc...the SFS Major Sq/cc is compared to the LRS Major Sq/cc. 

You’re being compared to your peers instead of someone in a completely different AFSC who may have had more leadership opportunities.  I’m guessing you are Intel?  Most Intel majors I know are crushing it as SIO.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t look as good on paper compared to the MSG Major that’s already a Squadron Commander.  Nor does being the overall mission commander for a Red Flag Ex as say a Pilot to an MSG on the promotion board. Now, you are compared to your fellow SIOs/pilots to pilots etc...the SFS Major Sq/cc is compared to the LRS Major Sq/cc. 

His screen name is 14N guy


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2 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

That’s not how math works....

Discounting APZ people....

if you don’t get a DP, you have between a 70 and 80% chance at promotion, depending on your LAF category

2 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

So a 40% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

I still don't see how this improves the chances of folks that were passed in the old system, but I do see how this could get a lot of folks promoted on their 1st/2nd look.

My math may be wrong, but I think it's an 80% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

Using the promotion rate/DP rate of:  90%/50% 

Say 100 folks are up for promotion for easy math.  50 get DPs and all are promoted.  50 get a P, but to reach a 90% promotion rate, 40 of those with a P would need to get promoted.  40/50=80%....I think.

The big change I learned about yesterday is that line numbers will be given based on merit order, rather than date of rank.  So the promotion board will rack and stack everyone, and pin-on will occur based on where you end up in that stack.  Seems like a good change since you will now know where the board stacked you against your peers.

edit: Benny beat me to it

Edited January 15, 20205 yr by otsap

My apologies for passing along bad gouge. My math in public skills are obviously terrible and I appreciate the corrections.

 

1 hour ago, dream big said:

You’re being compared to your peers instead of someone in a completely different AFSC who may have had more leadership opportunities.  I’m guessing you are Intel?  Most Intel majors I know are crushing it as SIO.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t look as good on paper compared to the MSG Major that’s already a Squadron Commander.  Nor does being the overall mission commander for a Red Flag Ex as say a Pilot to an MSG on the promotion board. Now, you are compared to your fellow SIOs/pilots to pilots etc...the SFS Major Sq/cc is compared to the LRS Major Sq/cc. 

A few comments regarding this. All of the SIO's/DO's/Det CC's are boarded positions (you get 5 opportunities), so all of these folks already go through a selection process where they are racked/stacked against their peers two times. The first time is to get on the candidate list, then the second time to get selected for a position.

The intel community already limits who it considers for promotion once you are an O-4 select (yes, there are some other avenues to get promoted and some folks not selected for leadership positions get promoted...But, the majority of 14N O-5's have either held a boarded leadership position or done in-res IDE).

At least for the LAF-I board, I am skeptical that this will do anything for the APZ guys, mainly because 14N leadership already has its tiers set up well before folks hit their first look at O-5.

Maybe I am wrong and the process will work like it is being pitched. There are folks I know who deserve to be promoted and I hope this process helps them out.

Source: me. I was a boarded DO that has been passed over a few times

7 hours ago, otsap said:

My math may be wrong, but I think it's an 80% chance of promotion for folks that don't have a DP.

Using the promotion rate/DP rate of:  90%/50% 

Say 100 folks are up for promotion for easy math.  50 get DPs and all are promoted.  50 get a P, but to reach a 90% promotion rate, 40 of those with a P would need to get promoted.  40/50=80%....I think.

The big change I learned about yesterday is that line numbers will be given based on merit order, rather than date of rank.  So the promotion board will rack and stack everyone, and pin-on will occur based on where you end up in that stack.  Seems like a good change since you will now know where the board stacked you against your peers.

edit: Benny beat me to it

Where did you get this info on merit based line numbers?

12 minutes ago, Epiloo said:

Where did you get this info on merit based line numbers?

It was in the NDAA authorizing the changes to the promotion system. The Navy already implemented merit based reordering on their selection boards last year. 

Edited January 16, 20205 yr by Bigred

1 hour ago, Bigred said:

It was in the NDAA authorizing the changes to the promotion system. The Navy already implemented merit based reordering on their selection boards last year. 

It was in a briefing by my senior rater, but Bigred's source is even better.

Also, static closeouts for OPRs.  A lot of changes going on.

2 hours ago, Epiloo said:

Where did you get this info on merit based line numbers?

It was also in the CSAF brief to Wing Commanders.

Why aren't CCs and Wing Kings more open and honest about who may or may not be promoted? Or do they simply not have a clue about who will be promoted to O-4/O-5? I was talking to my CC about a Flt/CC who isn't going to be submitted for school. I told the CC you have to tell him how he isn't performing well and what he can do better. I spoke with the guy and he said if I don't make Lt Col, I'm okay with all the time I've spent with my family. I shook my head like hell yeah bro. 

I do feel as though if CCs were more honest about performance, most officers won't stick around in the Air Force. 

25 minutes ago, LaneHBO said:

Why aren't CCs and Wing Kings more open and honest about who may or may not be promoted?

A lot of people never ask. 

Anybody hear of people making Major without attending SOS in today’s climate?

^Me. No SOS at all. Promoted to Maj. Got high-fives from the enlisted dudes in my Sq. Enjoyed watching the Os get all butthurt about it. 

35 minutes ago, Mustache Sally said:

^Me. No SOS at all. Promoted to Maj. Got high-fives from the enlisted dudes in my Sq. Enjoyed watching the Os get all butthurt about it. 

Making my "Oh Wow" face right now. Probably every DG or wanna be DG pulled out a pitch fork.

I can't seem to find the article from Gen Kelly. But the promotion boards are still going to be a mixture of AFSCs I believe.

Edited January 31, 20205 yr by LaneHBO

17 minutes ago, Mustache Sally said:

^Me. No SOS at all. Promoted to Maj. Got high-fives from the enlisted dudes in my Sq. Enjoyed watching the Os get all butthurt about it. 

Was that under the "100% to major" promotion boards?

And do you think not having SOS will hurt you going into the O-5 boards?

I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true. 

3 hours ago, elephants201 said:

I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true. 

Dude, if you’re pressing the cutoff for SOS and nobody has indicated that you’ll go 1) your leadership really really doesn’t like your act or 2) has forgotten. More likely 2 is true.

Why roll the bones on meeting the board without it? If you’re a pilot, you’ll still be under an ADSC when you pin on. No reason not to take the money in exchange for a vacation to Maxwell. 

Ask your Bobs. Remember, there’s rarely a secret plan, oversights are common, and nobody cares about managing your career but you. 

3 hours ago, elephants201 said:

I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true. 

You either have shitty leadership or they don't like you (or both) if you are coming up to a Maj board and have no clue about your SOS plans.  If you care about your career, then ask the question or just do it in correspondence.  The truth is that unless you are top 10% the USAF doesn't go out of their way to help your career plans and it's up to your own motivation to find your way.

I'm always baffled why people avoid 6 weeks of drinking in Montgomery with weekends on the gulf with literally no responsibility but to show up to class relatively sober each day and get released early afternoon.  Yes it's dumb.  Have I done dumber things in the military?  You bet.

At some point you realize some of the easiest money you've made in your career were when you were a student...and any opportunity to be one again is generally a good deal.

 

6 hours ago, pawnman said:

Was that under the "100% to major" promotion boards?

And do you think not having SOS will hurt you going into the O-5 boards?

I’m not sure of the details of the board. I AM sure my private parts and the pilot shortage had a lot to do with my “success.”

I highly doubt I’ll be promoted to O-5, which is fine by me. I’m getting out as soon as possible.

4 hours ago, jice said:

Dude, if you’re pressing the cutoff for SOS and nobody has indicated that you’ll go 1) your leadership really really doesn’t like your act or 2) has forgotten. More likely 2 is true.

Why roll the bones on meeting the board without it? If you’re a pilot, you’ll still be under an ADSC when you pin on. No reason not to take the money in exchange for a vacation to Maxwell. 

Ask your Bobs. Remember, there’s rarely a secret plan, oversights are common, and nobody cares about managing your career but you. 

I could have sworn I saw an email from the Wing essentially saying they are seeing decreased numbers for SOS in general for the AF. Commanders need to ensure they are submitting CGOs to attend. Trying to find that email because that is less money Maxwell AFB/SOS receives with lower attendance numbers.

After reading some of the CGO posts on the forum made me think. Either this is a coincidence or maybe there is SOS pushback? 

Edited February 1, 20205 yr by LaneHBO

8 hours ago, Mustache Sally said:

 

I’m not sure of the details of the board. I AM sure my private parts and the pilot shortage had a lot to do with my “success.”

I highly doubt I’ll be promoted to O-5, which is fine by me. I’m getting out as soon as possible.

Just get acsc in correspondence and stay AD. There’s nobody left....

5 hours ago, IDALPHA said:

Just get acsc in correspondence and stay AD. There’s nobody left....

About that...

Just received IPZ PRF for Lt Col.   I received a P 😞

 

that was with:

#1/5 Majors (deployed)

#6/24 Majors (Gp/CC)

#22/150 Majors (Wg/CC)

#7/160 Majors (Wg/CC)

all on 4 different OPRs

 

 

im at a new organization now.... currently stratted #2/7, only behind a Lt Col (S)....but “lucky” me, that’s on my PRF, and it looks bad IMO

Edited March 3, 20205 yr by bennynova

How many IPZ in your category? We saw our base get no outright DPs this year because of the category split. Did you get the “my next” or “if I had one”?


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