Then that’s the strongest P push you can get. Good luck. 

33 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Yes. The push is where #7/81 majors is, has the "if I had a DP, it's his", "definitely promote", "SQ/CC then SDE"

You’ll get promoted with those numbers and that push.  Remember, they have to promote some P records....if you have a strong P Record with the super P, your odds aren’t just good, they’re great.  Another thing to consider is that there are a number of O-5 IPZ PRFs that are complete shit.   You’ll be fine bro, don’t sweat the P.  Once you get promoted, it’s all the same.  

Thanks guys.  I think I'm over the initial shock.  I just thought surely a top 10% strat for majors and a top 15% strat for FGOs would be enough to pull a DP with a 55% allocation rate.

Same thing happened to me on my major's board.  #3/64 FTU instructors, FLT/CC of the year for the OG...P.

I think the part that's the most frustrating is all the senior leaders on the base telling me I'm on track and doing great work, then springing the "just kidding you're actually in the bottom half of your year group" when I open the PRF envelope.

 

Edited February 2, 20196 yr by pawnman

8 hours ago, Homestar said:

Then that’s the strongest P push you can get. Good luck. 

Sad it’s all smoke and vapor to say anything

Thanks guys.  I think I'm over the initial shock.  I just thought surely a top 10% strat for majors and a top 15% strat for FGOs would be enough to pull a DP with a 55% allocation rate.
Same thing happened to me on my major's board.  #3/64 FTU instructors, FLT/CC of the year for the OG...P.

I think the part that's the most frustrating is all the senior leaders on the base telling me I'm on track and doing great work, then springing the "just kidding you're actually in the bottom half of your year group" when I open the PRF envelope.

 

Not necessarily true. They could be playing the games of “this guy will get promoted with a P so we can slide a DP to someone else at the MLR.” Or it could be a factor of your SR has to have 3 IPZ to get a DP...and since yours says “if I had a DP to give” this is more likely.

The “bottom half” is crap if you just judge by the PRF DP allocation. All my feedback was always “top 1/3” “doing great” etc...but my PRF said “bottom 75%” because it was a P that didn’t say “definitely promote”. There were still a ton of my previous Sq, Gp, and Wg CCs that we’re shocked I wasn’t promoted.

Good luck and I’ll buy you a beer if you don’t make it by some weird fluke or hidden super double secret word that wasn’t just the right flavor of happy or glad.

5 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

Not necessarily true. They could be playing the games of “this guy will get promoted with a P so we can slide a DP to someone else at the MLR.” Or it could be a factor of your SR has to have 3 IPZ to get a DP...and since yours says “if I had a DP to give” this is more likely.

The “bottom half” is crap if you just judge by the PRF DP allocation. All my feedback was always “top 1/3” “doing great” etc...but my PRF said “bottom 75%” because it was a P that didn’t say “definitely promote”. There were still a ton of my previous Sq, Gp, and Wg CCs that we’re shocked I wasn’t promoted.

Good luck and I’ll buy you a beer if you don’t make it by some weird fluke or hidden super double secret word that wasn’t just the right flavor of happy or glad.

 

Well, I feel like it's bottom half based on a 55% rate, and the fact that the one other 05 guy at my base got one.

I sure hope my SR wasn't playing games, because I've seen that burn the guy who is "definitely getting promoted, even with a P".

Just got mine back... Got a P with bottom line #2/5 I/APZ, no “my next DP,” but command/SDE/Definitely Promote.  Not having the “my next DP” kinda sucks but if DP allocation was indeed 45% and we only had two IPZs that would make sense.

Playing a fun gamble as the new guy with an Army SR thousands of miles away who I’ve never met.  Feels kinda like when you’ve put a couple hundred on black and now the roulette wheel is spinning for the next couple months until the results drop!

I’m cautiously optimistic as I’ve got IDE in-res and a top OPR with a hard Maj strat in the top 10% of the wing plus hard rank (or “CGO”) strats on nearly every OPR.  Still - if I don’t make the cut that opens up a lot of options as well.  Looking forward to this summer’s list and good luck to all!

zb

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

8 hours ago, zach braff said:

Just got mine back... Got a P with bottom line #2/5 I/APZ, no “my next DP,” but command/SDE/Definitely Promote.  Not having the “my next DP” kinda sucks but if DP allocation was indeed 45% and we only had two IPZs that would make sense.

Playing a fun gamble as the new guy with an Army SR thousands of miles away who I’ve never met.  Feels kinda like when you’ve put a couple hundred on black and now the roulette wheel is spinning for the next couple months until the results drop!

I’m cautiously optimistic as I’ve got IDE in-res and a top OPR with a hard Maj strat in the top 10% of the wing plus hard rank (or “CGO”) strats on nearly every OPR.  Still - if I don’t make the cut that opens up a lot of options as well.  Looking forward to this summer’s list and good luck to all!

zb

Seems like a no brainer selection to me...if that helps you relax a bit.

29 minutes ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Not good buddy.

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

3% or less

55 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

3% or less

 

Because he’s APZ? Isn’t the Board instructed to disregard year group these days?

3 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

85% 

3 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Pretty darn good 

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

2 minutes ago, Genghis John said:

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

As long as online BS drops out of the selection criteria its a SMALL win.

28 minutes ago, Genghis John said:

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

I hope you're right, but previous years statistics seem to contradict your statement.

 

too soon?

 

85% 

Everyone knows this is a load of shit. Look at the last two years where the boards were instructed to ignore I/APZ and the stats did not change significantly. The only way you’re getting picked up APZ is with a DP.

Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

0-6 board results are out...

14 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Ok, I misread your statement

   I thought you were #4/42 eligibles on the bottom line.     If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   

Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    

 

 

Edited February 5, 20196 yr by bennynova

If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   
Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    

Spot on. Also, to those saying that no consideration should be given to IPZ vs APZ, my concern would be the quality of his(?) records that led to getting passed over in IPZ. Seldom does that much change in a year.

Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

I’m having a hard time recalling a single time that promotion results were released before the AFPC estimate. I’d go with that.

So I sat down with my wing commander, and here are the bullet points:

My recent record is pretty good, but the total record didn't complete well enough to get a DP.

I had a lot of "#1/x" for instructor, evaluator, shop chief, but not a lot of #x/xx captains, majors, CGO, or FGO.  Lesson learned... If your rater or SR is giving you a #1 that isn't CGO/FGO, push them for a CGO/FGO strat.  He told me even a #10/40 majors would have been more helpful than my #2/23 shop chiefs.

My pool was very competitive.  My base was not the only one with too few officers to get an outright DP, so I was competing with others who would have gotten a DP at their wings if there were more people within the wing.  

Bottom line - if you rate on guys, don't give them a #1 of x in a category the board doesn't care about at the expense of a #x/xx (assuming it's a decent one) CGO/FGO or captain/major strat.

I sure wish someone had said that to me about two years ago.

On the bright side, he said boards have largely stopped punishing the lack of staff.  We're starting to normalize people staying in the cockpit, because that is what Big Blue has asked of us.