pawnman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ThreeHoler said: It is less than 50/50 with a P and no “my next DP.” Having a strat in the PRF push line is good. Does the push say “definitely promote”, “sq/cc”, and “SDE”? Yes. The push is where #7/81 majors is, has the "if I had a DP, it's his", "definitely promote", "SQ/CC then SDE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestar Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Then that’s the strongest P push you can get. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
celtic020 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 33 minutes ago, pawnman said: Yes. The push is where #7/81 majors is, has the "if I had a DP, it's his", "definitely promote", "SQ/CC then SDE" You’ll get promoted with those numbers and that push. Remember, they have to promote some P records....if you have a strong P Record with the super P, your odds aren’t just good, they’re great. Another thing to consider is that there are a number of O-5 IPZ PRFs that are complete shit. You’ll be fine bro, don’t sweat the P. Once you get promoted, it’s all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 (edited) Thanks guys. I think I'm over the initial shock. I just thought surely a top 10% strat for majors and a top 15% strat for FGOs would be enough to pull a DP with a 55% allocation rate. Same thing happened to me on my major's board. #3/64 FTU instructors, FLT/CC of the year for the OG...P. I think the part that's the most frustrating is all the senior leaders on the base telling me I'm on track and doing great work, then springing the "just kidding you're actually in the bottom half of your year group" when I open the PRF envelope. Edited February 2, 2019 by pawnman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmacwc Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 hours ago, Homestar said: Then that’s the strongest P push you can get. Good luck. Sad it’s all smoke and vapor to say anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Thanks guys. I think I'm over the initial shock. I just thought surely a top 10% strat for majors and a top 15% strat for FGOs would be enough to pull a DP with a 55% allocation rate. Same thing happened to me on my major's board. #3/64 FTU instructors, FLT/CC of the year for the OG...P. I think the part that's the most frustrating is all the senior leaders on the base telling me I'm on track and doing great work, then springing the "just kidding you're actually in the bottom half of your year group" when I open the PRF envelope. Not necessarily true. They could be playing the games of “this guy will get promoted with a P so we can slide a DP to someone else at the MLR.” Or it could be a factor of your SR has to have 3 IPZ to get a DP...and since yours says “if I had a DP to give” this is more likely. The “bottom half” is crap if you just judge by the PRF DP allocation. All my feedback was always “top 1/3” “doing great” etc...but my PRF said “bottom 75%” because it was a P that didn’t say “definitely promote”. There were still a ton of my previous Sq, Gp, and Wg CCs that we’re shocked I wasn’t promoted.Good luck and I’ll buy you a beer if you don’t make it by some weird fluke or hidden super double secret word that wasn’t just the right flavor of happy or glad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 hours ago, ThreeHoler said: Not necessarily true. They could be playing the games of “this guy will get promoted with a P so we can slide a DP to someone else at the MLR.” Or it could be a factor of your SR has to have 3 IPZ to get a DP...and since yours says “if I had a DP to give” this is more likely. The “bottom half” is crap if you just judge by the PRF DP allocation. All my feedback was always “top 1/3” “doing great” etc...but my PRF said “bottom 75%” because it was a P that didn’t say “definitely promote”. There were still a ton of my previous Sq, Gp, and Wg CCs that we’re shocked I wasn’t promoted. Good luck and I’ll buy you a beer if you don’t make it by some weird fluke or hidden super double secret word that wasn’t just the right flavor of happy or glad. Well, I feel like it's bottom half based on a 55% rate, and the fact that the one other 05 guy at my base got one. I sure hope my SR wasn't playing games, because I've seen that burn the guy who is "definitely getting promoted, even with a P". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zach braff Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just got mine back... Got a P with bottom line #2/5 I/APZ, no “my next DP,” but command/SDE/Definitely Promote. Not having the “my next DP” kinda sucks but if DP allocation was indeed 45% and we only had two IPZs that would make sense. Playing a fun gamble as the new guy with an Army SR thousands of miles away who I’ve never met. Feels kinda like when you’ve put a couple hundred on black and now the roulette wheel is spinning for the next couple months until the results drop! I’m cautiously optimistic as I’ve got IDE in-res and a top OPR with a hard Maj strat in the top 10% of the wing plus hard rank (or “CGO”) strats on nearly every OPR. Still - if I don’t make the cut that opens up a lot of options as well. Looking forward to this summer’s list and good luck to all! zb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revpmd Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epiloo Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 8 hours ago, zach braff said: Just got mine back... Got a P with bottom line #2/5 I/APZ, no “my next DP,” but command/SDE/Definitely Promote. Not having the “my next DP” kinda sucks but if DP allocation was indeed 45% and we only had two IPZs that would make sense. Playing a fun gamble as the new guy with an Army SR thousands of miles away who I’ve never met. Feels kinda like when you’ve put a couple hundred on black and now the roulette wheel is spinning for the next couple months until the results drop! I’m cautiously optimistic as I’ve got IDE in-res and a top OPR with a hard Maj strat in the top 10% of the wing plus hard rank (or “CGO”) strats on nearly every OPR. Still - if I don’t make the cut that opens up a lot of options as well. Looking forward to this summer’s list and good luck to all! zb Seems like a no brainer selection to me...if that helps you relax a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epiloo Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 29 minutes ago, Revpmd said: So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col? Not good buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?3% or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homestar Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 55 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said: 3% or less Because he’s APZ? Isn’t the Board instructed to disregard year group these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Revpmd said: So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col? 85% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BashiChuni Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Revpmd said: So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col? Pretty darn good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genghis John Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDALPHA Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Genghis John said: I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. As long as online BS drops out of the selection criteria its a SMALL win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawnman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 28 minutes ago, Genghis John said: I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. I hope you're right, but previous years statistics seem to contradict your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hindsight2020 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 too soon? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 85% Everyone knows this is a load of shit. Look at the last two years where the boards were instructed to ignore I/APZ and the stats did not change significantly. The only way you’re getting picked up APZ is with a DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chromedome Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May? I'm thinking it might be earlier. Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 0-6 board results are out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 (edited) 14 hours ago, Revpmd said: So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col? Ok, I misread your statement I thought you were #4/42 eligibles on the bottom line. If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection. Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say. Edited February 5, 2019 by bennynova 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Champ Kind Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection. Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say. Spot on. Also, to those saying that no consideration should be given to IPZ vs APZ, my concern would be the quality of his(?) records that led to getting passed over in IPZ. Seldom does that much change in a year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Champ Kind Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May? I'm thinking it might be earlier. Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner? I’m having a hard time recalling a single time that promotion results were released before the AFPC estimate. I’d go with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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