War on the Rocks

China Now Finds Itself in al-Qaeda’s Crosshairs

Could China replace the United States atop the target list of transnational jihadist groups like al-Qaeda? A recent statement released by Sheikh Saad bin

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Don’t train your enemies

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Sen. Jim Banks Warns About Chinese Pilots Getting U.S. Tr...

Sen. Banks is sounding the alarm about Chinese training in the U.S. to become pilots, a fact first revealed in Peter Schweizer's book "The Invisible Coup."

Attrition warfare preparation

China positions hundreds of potential drone-converted J-6...

On 7/1/2025 at 11:27 AM, HeyEng said:

China Eastern Flight 5735 crash now declared a “State Secret”!
 

Almost three years ago a China Eastern 737-800 (not a Max) plunged near vertical into a muddy hillside. There was no indication of any mechanical failure and looked more likely as a result of suicide or hijacking.

https://loyaltylobby.com/2025/06/28/china-declares-the-true-cause-of-china-eastern-mu5735-accident-a-state-secret-pilot-suicide/

A FOIA request to the NTSB sheds a little more light on the China Eastern 737-800 crash. No big surprise, it looks even more likely it was a Pilot suicide.

https://youtu.be/Fuu9JvuI1KY?si=E1c3LpHRX_wA0meR

Xi Jinping continues to wreak havoc among his senior inner circle....some reports say he no longer has a circle and acts in an echo chamber of his own thoughts. China’s powerful Central Military Commission, which previously had 11 members, now has only one member besides Xi himself, according to reports.

China Sentences Ex-Defense Ministers to Death over Graft Charges

"According to a February report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, at least 36 generals and lieutenant generals have been officially purged since 2022, while another 65 officers are listed as missing or potentially under investigation."

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Xi Jinping continues to wreak havoc among his senior inner circle....some reports say he no longer has a circle and acts in an echo chamber of his own thoughts. China’s powerful Central Military Commission, which previously had 11 members, now has only one member besides Xi himself, according to reports.

China Sentences Ex-Defense Ministers to Death over Graft Charges

"According to a February report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, at least 36 generals and lieutenant generals have been officially purged since 2022, while another 65 officers are listed as missing or potentially under investigation."

Everyone I have a conversation about "what's going on in the world," most people think I'm a little nuts for saying a war with China is coming within a decade.

But it's hard to see how things like this are anything but a bad sign.

Edited Friday at 05:46 PM1 day by Lord Ratner

1 hour ago, Lord Ratner said:

Everyone I have a conversation about "what's going on in the world," most people think I'm a little nuts for saying a way with China is coming within a decade.

But it's hard to see how things like this are anything but a bad sign.

A "way" or a war?

Worst kept secret out there. The U.S. Intelligence apparatus has been saying 2027 for a long time and a lot of funding decisions support that date. Increasing delivery of B-21, LRIP of F-47, 28,000 low-cost cruise missiles in the latest POM.

If you look at it holistically China will achieve peak power in 2027 and start to rapidly decline thereafter. Economy, demographic and a host of other factors fully drag them down. You should go look at the demographics....they are paying a HUGE price for the one child policy which has now been cancelled.

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

A "way" or a war?

Worst kept secret out there. The U.S. Intelligence apparatus has been saying 2027 for a long time and a lot of funding decisions support that date. Increasing delivery of B-21, LRIP of F-47, 28,000 low-cost cruise missiles in the latest POM.

If you look at it holistically China will achieve peak power in 2027 and start to rapidly decline thereafter. Economy, demographic and a host of other factors fully drag them down. You should go look at the demographics....they are paying a HUGE price for the one child policy which has now been cancelled.

Yep, "war."

I usually phrase it thusly: China is one of the only countries in the history of humanity to have a significantly higher portion of males than females. They've incinerated the family savings of hundreds of millions of families by building towers that will never be occupied. And they have a youth unemployment problem. There is nothing more dangerous to a society than a bunch of unwed, unemployed young men.

Do you know of any ways a totalitarian regime can unburden themselves of a bunch of revolutionary excess males?

I don't think war is a risk for China, I think it's the plan. The only silver lining is that China's ~25 million excess males are offset by India vs ~45 million. And they aren't too crazy about each other.

Edited Friday at 06:02 PM1 day by Lord Ratner

The question I'm beginning to ponder: Is a China instigated war scarier with Xi at the helm, or whomever comes after him? Imagine a world in a year or so where Xi is no longer in power, and China still decides to go to war... Echos of Russia turning into the USSR, or possibly France's revolution turning into a Napoleon led war machine...

Edited 15 hours ago15 hr by FourFans

Having been to all the DOW PME and a stint at the Harvard Fellowship I have seen a lot of different techniques for evaluating adversary intentions and motivations. When it comes to China I am a fan of NOT thinking like an American. Yes we can read On War and The Art of War but I prefer to place myself in their shoes and contemplate motivations. China is a unique case and this is how I describe it to others. Imagine there was another Civil War in America...We the winners, fought the "bad" guys all the way across the country to California where they jumped in boats and went to Hawaii where they took over. We didn't have the ships to take it back....would there be ANY doubt that Hawaii is ours? And if a peer adversary stepped in to support the people that took Hawaii how would we view it? That is exactly what happened with Taiwan. So all of that to say, yes, war IS THE PLAN, and they believe they are fully justified in doing so. Getting over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced chips is just icing on the cake.

13 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Having been to all the DOW PME and a stint at the Harvard Fellowship I have seen a lot of different techniques for evaluating adversary intentions and motivations. When it comes to China I am a fan of NOT thinking like an American. Yes we can read On War and The Art of War but I prefer to place myself in their shoes and contemplate motivations. China is a unique case and this is how I describe it to others. Imagine there was another Civil War in America...We the winners, fought the "bad" guys all the way across the country to California where they jumped in boats and went to Hawaii where they took over. We didn't have the ships to take it back....would there be ANY doubt that Hawaii is ours? And if a peer adversary stepped in to support the people that took Hawaii how would we view it? That is exactly what happened with Taiwan. So all of that to say, yes, war IS THE PLAN, and they believe they are fully justified in doing so. Getting over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced chips is just icing on the cake.

Fully agree. What I'm curious about is after hostilities begin, what then? I don't see a conflict over Taiwan that doesn't expand after hostilities begin. Even if China is 100% successful in taking the island back (which I highly doubt), I don't see a scenario where the waves they make in doing so don't extend farther and result in consequences from Afghanistan to Japan. This is precisely how wars of conquest in Asia have proceeded in the past: Once the army is assembled, just keep going until defeat or complete exhaustion of the army. 'When holding a hammer, everything look like a nail' holds true in Asia. In some ways China's biggest threat is DISassembly of a massive army. All those men with training and nothing do. In that regard, Xi is almost a mitigating factor, because I have no doubt he actually does have a plan. An overthrowing mob wouldn't.

Edited 45 minutes ago45 min by FourFans