Pooter

Honestly no. And if she had started this war I would’ve been against it too. I just argue against trump here because railing on the dems in a predominantly conservative forum isn’t any fun The dems have their own huge issues, namely being so insane on social and economic policy that it will drive people to vote for candidates like trump. And I will always blame the democrats for trump round two. He should have been easy to beat but when you run a senile guy and then sub in a cackling crazy lady at the 11th hour #brat #joy they somehow made trump look (temporarily) like the sane option.

Because after seeing years of simping and rushing to his defense when we call him out for saying clearly unhinged stuff, you saying “well I don’t like everything he says” and claiming not to be a supporter doesn’t really convince me anymore. The “I’m just a stoic political realist who picked the lesser of two evils” routine doesn’t hold as much water when you charge in to defend him and glaze his every policy move whenever there’s the slightest criticism. As others have said there is actually a 3rd option here: expect better and stop making excuses for the guy

lol wtf is this boomer ass fox news argument 😂 Chicago is a city of 9 million people. Since when do we compare soldier death tolls to major metropolitan area crime to figure out if a war is a going well or not? Oh that’s right no one does that.. it’s a stupid deflection tactic because: -the straight isn’t open -the regime isn’t changed -the people aren’t rising up -the missile threat isn’t eliminated -negotiations aren’t progressing -the region isn’t safer Can’t argue the war on its own merits? Pivot to TDS accusations and LiBeRal cItY cRiMe

See this is the classic ‘have your cake and eat it too’ technique that the trump cult of personality constantly lives in and uses to hand wave away anything bad he says or does. Because his supporters DO take his tweets literally.. when they like what he’s saying. When trump says he’s making great progress in negotiations with Iran (a lie) his supporters take that literally. It’s only when he’s advocating for war crimes or something else reprehensible that they’ll go “bro haven’t you learned by now not to take him literally? he’s just a showman.. why are you making such a big deal about a mean tweet.” It’s a convenient little unfalsifiable bubble you guys have created for yourselves. Anything trump says or does you like—taken at face value and evidence of how great he is Anything he says or does that is objectively horrible—“calm down bro don’t be so literal he’s just a showman” So I’ll ask the question for the second time today in slightly different words: is there anything he could say or do that you won’t use that technique to hand wave away? Are there limits to the trump cuck filter or does it apply in every single scenario?

See you might think this is a damning sequence of incoherence and impulsiveness from our president that sums up the complete lack of strategy and maturity they’re approaching this with, but actually you just have TDS and don’t understand the 15-D chess going on in the background.

Is the plan in the room with us right now? Describe it to me. How does “a whole civilization will die tonight” fit into that plan? How is that not escalatory? How is that rhetoric in line with how this war was originally sold? edit, maybe a better question to ask: is there any public statement trump could make that you would admit is reckless, escalatory, or strategically damaging?

Oh silly me I thought that the commander in chief threatening to “end a civilization” was where we lost the plot but I guess we have to wait and see if he’s actually gonna do it

It’s just a shame no one predicted this would devolve into reckless escalations with no plan. But in fairness these things are super duper difficult to analyze as they’re happening

Just popping in for the friendly weekly reminder that at no point leading up to this stupid boondoggle did our own intel community assess Iran was developing a nuke. 2025 DNI report saying as much is linked a few pages back. But please don’t let inconvenient facts like that interfere with fear mongering about it. There’s some pretty bad faith comments in here to the point that it’s honestly gotten tiresome. This might sound strange to some of you but it’s perfectly possible to disagree with the policy and strategy underpinning a war without being a “scaredy cat” or “against the troops” or “rooting for failure.”

Delusions about our capabilities and influence are the first step toward getting into these kinds of disastrous long haul slogs. That you would even bring it up signals a level of hubris that I think seriously clouds your strategic thinking.

-this isn’t gonna be some 20 year boondoggle -look we might have to spend the next 100 years playing whack-a-mole bombing Iran into submission Even better! A 100 year boondoggle where we don’t even have the moral high ground of being able to claim we’re trying to bring democracy to a backward country. At least now we’re saying the quiet part out loud.

And what happens when a few thousand marines are on Kharg island and then Iran, having now lost access to their own fossil fuel infrastructure, just says fuck it and starts lobbing TBMs at the place? Missiles are already getting through in PSAB and Tel Aviv, how do you think this is gonna go when we have ground troops on Iran’s doorstep as sitting ducks holding some shithole oil depot? God forbid a bunch of marines are injured or killed holding this stupid island, and then what happens? We just take our ball and go home? LOL you and I both know that’ll just be the excuse for the next incremental boots on the ground good idea fairy. Do you guys not see the escalation ladder clearly laid out in front of us? You guys keep saying you won’t support a 20 year nation building boondoggles. Great, thanks for that. Super easy to say in hindsight. But you all seem completely blind to (or supportive of) the incremental escalations sitting right in front of us, that are leading us down this path.

What’s important to remember about executive branch scope creep and abuse of power is that its only bad when the other side does it. When your own side does it, it’s just an unfortunate reality/status quo of the times we live in.

@Lord Ratner it’s a fun non-argument from Coleman but please tell me what Russia and China developing nukes slightly ahead is schedule 70 years ago has to do with a DNI report on Iran from 2025. Netanyahu has been saying Iran is weeks from a bomb for 30 years, so which is it? Are they ahead of schedule or behind schedule? Silly me I guess I just read the current intel reports from the current people doing the job. But to your second bigger point, there are numerous other countries that have enriched uranium and set up infrastructure to have what is referred to as a “latent nuclear deterrent.” Germany, South Korea, Japan, Brazil, Argentina, and a few others are all considered to have the volume of enriched material and technology to rush to a bomb if they need to. Iran may very well have been in this category too but by all available intel they were not pursuing a weapon. These countries do this as a bargaining chip and insurance policy—basically “don’t fuck with us because we could rush to a bomb if we wanted to.” By any rational analysis this is what Iran was doing. They want regime survival and not to be fucked with. They aren’t irrational head choppers who are going to fire a nuke the first second they get their hands on one because they know Israel has nukes too and would be headed right back their way. A latent nuclear deterrent is the middle ground they were shooting for where they don’t have to have the risk of having a bomb on paper but have some the bargaining power of the ability to make one. I guess if you think launching a war to deny them that bargaining power is a good thing.. fair enough. But it’ll be hard to prevent it forever.

I’m not getting the alarmism from the media.. it’s from your post: “It is completely conceivable they would strike us, Israel or Europe first with a nuclear weapon in an unattributable manner.“ No it’s actually not. Why do you just take that as a given? North Korea has nukes now, why haven’t they funneled one to a terror organization and blown up Seoul or Tokyo or NYC? Because it would be obviously attributable.. you think if a nuke goes off in Tel Aviv and because the terrorists that hypothetically did it weren’t draped in Iranian flags it’s some giant mystery where they got it from? Did they get it from France? Of course it’s attributable. These regimes want the nukes as a deterrent and tool to ensure their own survival. You think they’d spend all that time and energy to make one and then give it away to some 3rd party who may or may not even set it off properly? You guys act like all these countries are lunatic isis-style suicidal head choppers but they actually spend most of their time acting in their own rational self interest. And the whole point is moot because our own intel community assessed they weren’t building a bomb but clearly we’re gonna keep ignoring that.. This hypothetical nuke situation is all just another GWOT WMD pretext for war and maybe you don’t watch Fox News but somehow the Mark Levin boomer talking points have filtered down to you through the algorithm. Netanyahu has been saying Iran is weeks/months from a nuke since the 1990s. You can find the compilations on YouTube.

Russia and China were well aware that our military is dope before we showed it off yet again. This isn’t some “oh shit” moment for them. They’re patiently watching, collecting valuable intel, and they’re celebrating that every JASSM, MOP, TLAM, PrSM, and high end interceptor missile used against Iran is one less we have for an eventual fight with them. We moved CSGs, marines, fighter squadrons, patriot and THAAD batteries, and countless weapons from other AORs to the Middle East and I’m supposed to believe this makes our force posture toward China stronger?! Our resources are vast, but not infinite, and everything you expend against a second rate regional power is stuff you won’t have to fight against the big dog. Also agreed, Iran with a nuke is not a good thing, but as I posted earlier, our own intelligence community assessed they were not trying to build one as recently as this past year. Which I guess is just an inconvenient fact that we’re gonna continue to gloss over. Then we “obliterated their nuclear program” in midnight hammer but now suddenly there’s an imminent nuclear threat of the bomb we already assessed they weren’t making, then “obliterated” … So what the fuck are we even talking about? This is all boomer GWOT Fox News alarmism. “IF WE DONT ACT NOW THEYRE GONNA NUKE TEL AVIV OR NYC NEXT WEEK.” How do you guys not see this is just the same old script the establishment uses to sell every war?

100% This is gonna get blown up into a controller/FAA manning issue (as it should) but a huge portion of the responsibility shared by the fire truck crew is going to be lost on most people. Nothing against our emergency response folks but anyone who’s been a pilot long enough knows they kinda blast around airfields with very little regard for clearances. In the few times where I have ground egressed a jet, my primary concern after getting out was not being hit by a firetruck. And they aren’t pilots so they’re not going to have the same mental picture we might have after listening to a tower freq for a minute or two. I hope this incident prompts more airfield ops training for emergency crews because in my experience their shenanigans on the airfield and generally garbage comms tend add more chaos to emergency situations than they alleviate.

Yeah if there’s one thing sure to improve our positioning in the world it’s getting sucked into another middle eastern boondoggle 🙄 Russia and China are absolutely salivating over this. Why do you think they haven’t stepped in to broker some kind of ceasefire? Because you don’t interrupt your enemy when they’re in the middle of curb stomping their own dick.

Phew thank goodness the 2026 DNI report says China isn’t gonna move on Taiwan now because of our big dick moves in South America and the Middle East. I’ve always considered the DNI report to be the gold standard analysis. Wonder what the 2025 report said about Iran.. checks notes.. “WMD We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.“ 2025 DNI report pg. 26 https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf well shit. I guess the main thing to know about DNI reports is that you should ignore them if they don’t justify another forever war in the Middle East

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/u-s-deploy-82nd-airborne-iran-middle-east/ mmm yes it’s all going according to plan. -we’re actively in talks with Iran according to trump -but also we attacked them the last two times we were in talks -and also Iran says we aren’t in talks -and now potential movement toward boots on the ground -but it’s probably just to secure Kharg island which is like.. not really boots on the ground.. Goalpost shift in 3.. 2.. 1..

Don’t be silly dude, this is baseops.. disrespecting the troops only matters when left wing presidents do it

@Lord Ratner You’re correct that the sky isn’t falling, but to me that’s kinda the most key insight. Unless we have another 9/11 god forbid, these boondoggles never feel like the sky is falling at the time. They’re an incremental forward march of tit for tat strikes, dick measuring, and reprisals that get us entangled in these things for the long run. It’s hard to sniff out as it’s happening because we can get easily distracted by our dope ass military fucking shit up (admittedly awesome.) It’s much easier with the clarity 20 years of hindsight provides to see that Iraq/afghanistan were an exercise in futility. I genuinely hope this is wrapped up quick and I’m eating crow with you guys telling me I told you so on here in a few days.

@FourFans disagree on all points. -the Iranian navy was not “much vaunted” to anyone except the Iranian regime. now that we’re in this stupid boondoggle I’m happy to see it decimated, but I’m not particularly impressed that we could do it. Like I said I never had any doubt in our abilities to wreck shit.. but what is the plan now? -a small dog cornered can still do a lot of damage especially in their own back yard. And they’ll be hell bent on rebuilding with the express purpose of getting revenge. Has Middle East insurgent math just flown right past all your heads all these years? When you whack the top guy in a government and bomb everything to shit, it doesn’t just stop being a problem. You create a power vacuum where often the most violent and radical people then take over. Hmmm wonder if we’ve ever seen this before 🤔 -trump isn’t holding his cards close to disguise some 4-d chess plan. There is no plan. We are making this shit up as we go. Rubio and Johnson already accidentally admitted we got pulled into this by Israel who was gonna go with or without us, and WH and mil staff are now leaking trump is getting frustrated that this thing hasn’t wrapped up already. He’s the one offering off ramps to Iran and they are choosing not to take them. -lastly I think it’s perfectly within bounds to criticize foreign policy as it’s happening. I’m far more “in the arena” than trump ever has been or ever will be, so I don’t accept your “let it play out” suggestion. It’s our asses on the line and time away from our families to go fight the war of choice that trump explicitly campaigned against. And as with the rest of our middle eastern boondoggles this one looks like it’s going to drag on far longer than we initially intended and result in tons of money spent for negligible gain

Dude you post this like we’re out of the woods already, except: -Iran is striking civilian oil tankers as we speak -regime is not changed, in fact we now have a more hardline ayatollah in charge with nothing to live for but revenge -if midnight hammer was such a glowing success why are we back here doing the same shit 6 months later -nuclear material is still not secured (and probably won’t ever be without a catastrophic boots on the ground op) -regime is now backed into a corner in survival mode where their only real move left is terrorism, attacking soft target civilian infrastructure, and even more severe internal repression -trump admin has signaled off ramps now multiple times and the Iranian regime isn’t backing down -no discernible plan on our end other than to just keep blowing stuff up And none of this is to say the boys aren’t doing amazing work over there right now. They are. But wrecking shit was never our weakness, it’s having any semblance of a plan for what comes next