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Promotion and PRF Information

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8 hours ago, zach braff said:

Just got mine back... Got a P with bottom line #2/5 I/APZ, no “my next DP,” but command/SDE/Definitely Promote.  Not having the “my next DP” kinda sucks but if DP allocation was indeed 45% and we only had two IPZs that would make sense.

Playing a fun gamble as the new guy with an Army SR thousands of miles away who I’ve never met.  Feels kinda like when you’ve put a couple hundred on black and now the roulette wheel is spinning for the next couple months until the results drop!

I’m cautiously optimistic as I’ve got IDE in-res and a top OPR with a hard Maj strat in the top 10% of the wing plus hard rank (or “CGO”) strats on nearly every OPR.  Still - if I don’t make the cut that opens up a lot of options as well.  Looking forward to this summer’s list and good luck to all!

zb

Seems like a no brainer selection to me...if that helps you relax a bit.

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29 minutes ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Not good buddy.

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55 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

 


3% or less

 

Because he’s APZ? Isn’t the Board instructed to disregard year group these days?

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3 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

85% 

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3 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Pretty darn good 

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2 minutes ago, Genghis John said:

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

As long as online BS drops out of the selection criteria its a SMALL win.

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28 minutes ago, Genghis John said:

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

I hope you're right, but previous years statistics seem to contradict your statement.

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85% 


Everyone knows this is a load of shit. Look at the last two years where the boards were instructed to ignore I/APZ and the stats did not change significantly. The only way you’re getting picked up APZ is with a DP.

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Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

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14 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Ok, I misread your statement

   I thought you were #4/42 eligibles on the bottom line.     If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   

Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    

 

 

Edited by bennynova
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If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   
Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    


Spot on. Also, to those saying that no consideration should be given to IPZ vs APZ, my concern would be the quality of his(?) records that led to getting passed over in IPZ. Seldom does that much change in a year.

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Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

I’m having a hard time recalling a single time that promotion results were released before the AFPC estimate. I’d go with that.

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So I sat down with my wing commander, and here are the bullet points:

My recent record is pretty good, but the total record didn't complete well enough to get a DP.

I had a lot of "#1/x" for instructor, evaluator, shop chief, but not a lot of #x/xx captains, majors, CGO, or FGO.  Lesson learned... If your rater or SR is giving you a #1 that isn't CGO/FGO, push them for a CGO/FGO strat.  He told me even a #10/40 majors would have been more helpful than my #2/23 shop chiefs.

My pool was very competitive.  My base was not the only one with too few officers to get an outright DP, so I was competing with others who would have gotten a DP at their wings if there were more people within the wing.  

Bottom line - if you rate on guys, don't give them a #1 of x in a category the board doesn't care about at the expense of a #x/xx (assuming it's a decent one) CGO/FGO or captain/major strat.

I sure wish someone had said that to me about two years ago.

On the bright side, he said boards have largely stopped punishing the lack of staff.  We're starting to normalize people staying in the cockpit, because that is what Big Blue has asked of us.

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Just got my PRF back. 

   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization

#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)

4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats

  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 

no DGs

 

i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets

 

Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.

 

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16 hours ago, Homestar said:

Because he’s APZ? Isn’t the Board instructed to disregard year group these days?

Looking at AFPC stats with a P and APZ

2018: 2.5%

2017: 3.2%

2016: 0.6%

2015: 2.9%

2014: 0.2%

So chances aren’t in their favor without  DP 

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2 hours ago, bennynova said:

Just got my PRF back. 

   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization

#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)

4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats

  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 

no DGs

 

i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets

 

Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.

 

Dude if those strats are middle of the road I must have been a turd burglar on active duty as a CGO! 🤣

#8/150 Majors is top 5% and now you’re “middle of the road?” The active duty rating system is broken for the 69% of dudes who are not shiny pennies nor bottom feeders. Dudes in that vast “middle of the road” have no idea where they stand and even worse, there is no real incentive to try harder when their fate is already likely sealed.

Theres a big god damned difference beteeen 15th percentile and 85th percentile but hey, thanks for playing. I guess with manning almost everyone should be free to be continued at O4 indefinitely, but that’s cold comfort for many dudes who were thinking O5 was the “standard career.”

Edited by nsplayr
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1 hour ago, bennynova said:

Just got my PRF back. 

   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization

#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)

4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats

  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 

no DGs

 

i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets

 

Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.

 

There's no way that's middle of the road.  Second the advice of getting a job on the Wing Staff if able, but those strats are good enough for a DP, depending on your competition.

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5 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Dude if those strats are middle of the road I must have been a turd burglar on active duty as a CGO! 🤣

#8/150 Majors is top 5% and now you’re “middle of the road?” The active duty rating system is broken for the 69% of dudes who are not shiny pennies nor bottom feeders. Dudes in that vast “middle of the road” have no idea where they stand and even worse, no real incentive to try harder when their fate is already likely sealed.

Theres a big god damned difference beteeen 15th percentile and 85th percentile but hey, thanks for playing. I guess with manning almost everyone should be free to be continued at O4 indefinitely but that’s cold comfort for many dudes who were thinking O5 was the “standard career.”

This is my confusion as well, how the hell is this middle of the road with multiple top tier strats? Sounds like the dude’s SR either doesn’t know what he is talking about or is playing games.

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Just got my PRF back. 
   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization
#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)
4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats
  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 
no DGs
 
i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets
 
Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.
 


That is someone trying to squeeze blood from a stone (you)...”he’ll work harder for the DP over the next year and make me look good...”
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