Jump to content
Baseops Forums
Guest e3racing

Promotion and PRF Information

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

85% 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Pretty darn good 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Genghis John said:

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

As long as online BS drops out of the selection criteria its a SMALL win.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Genghis John said:

I thought the what are my chances posts where limited to the upt candidate section....ffs 😔. bonus + no dui = o-5. 

I hope you're right, but previous years statistics seem to contradict your statement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
85% 


Everyone knows this is a load of shit. Look at the last two years where the boards were instructed to ignore I/APZ and the stats did not change significantly. The only way you’re getting picked up APZ is with a DP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Revpmd said:

So I’m 1APZ and just got a 4/42 O-4s! My next DP if I had one. (Super P)...odds of promotion to Lt Col?

Ok, I misread your statement

   I thought you were #4/42 eligibles on the bottom line.     If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   

Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    

 

 

Edited by bennynova
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If your SR thought well enough of you to spend a #4/42 Maj strat on you, then he should have given you a DP to ensure your selection.   
Also, without seeing the rest of your record, it’s hard to say.    


Spot on. Also, to those saying that no consideration should be given to IPZ vs APZ, my concern would be the quality of his(?) records that led to getting passed over in IPZ. Seldom does that much change in a year.

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyone else tracking the O-4 promotion list estimated release early or mid May?  I'm thinking it might be earlier.  Anyone have any intel from any A1 folks on if it will be sooner?  

I’m having a hard time recalling a single time that promotion results were released before the AFPC estimate. I’d go with that.
  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I sat down with my wing commander, and here are the bullet points:

My recent record is pretty good, but the total record didn't complete well enough to get a DP.

I had a lot of "#1/x" for instructor, evaluator, shop chief, but not a lot of #x/xx captains, majors, CGO, or FGO.  Lesson learned... If your rater or SR is giving you a #1 that isn't CGO/FGO, push them for a CGO/FGO strat.  He told me even a #10/40 majors would have been more helpful than my #2/23 shop chiefs.

My pool was very competitive.  My base was not the only one with too few officers to get an outright DP, so I was competing with others who would have gotten a DP at their wings if there were more people within the wing.  

Bottom line - if you rate on guys, don't give them a #1 of x in a category the board doesn't care about at the expense of a #x/xx (assuming it's a decent one) CGO/FGO or captain/major strat.

I sure wish someone had said that to me about two years ago.

On the bright side, he said boards have largely stopped punishing the lack of staff.  We're starting to normalize people staying in the cockpit, because that is what Big Blue has asked of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got my PRF back. 

   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization

#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)

4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats

  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 

no DGs

 

i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets

 

Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd suggest, if you aren't already, getting a job where you work for the Wg/CC.  IG, XP, CCE, CAG, whatever.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Homestar said:

Because he’s APZ? Isn’t the Board instructed to disregard year group these days?

Looking at AFPC stats with a P and APZ

2018: 2.5%

2017: 3.2%

2016: 0.6%

2015: 2.9%

2014: 0.2%

So chances aren’t in their favor without  DP 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bennynova said:

Just got my PRF back. 

   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization

#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)

4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats

  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 

no DGs

 

i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets

 

Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.

 

Dude if those strats are middle of the road I must have been a turd burglar on active duty as a CGO! 🤣

#8/150 Majors is top 5% and now you’re “middle of the road?” The active duty rating system is broken for the 69% of dudes who are not shiny pennies nor bottom feeders. Dudes in that vast “middle of the road” have no idea where they stand and even worse, there is no real incentive to try harder when their fate is already likely sealed.

Theres a big god damned difference beteeen 15th percentile and 85th percentile but hey, thanks for playing. I guess with manning almost everyone should be free to be continued at O4 indefinitely, but that’s cold comfort for many dudes who were thinking O5 was the “standard career.”

Edited by nsplayr
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bennynova said:

Just got my PRF back. 

   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization

#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)

4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats

  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 

no DGs

 

i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets

 

Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.

 

There's no way that's middle of the road.  Second the advice of getting a job on the Wing Staff if able, but those strats are good enough for a DP, depending on your competition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Dude if those strats are middle of the road I must have been a turd burglar on active duty as a CGO! 🤣

#8/150 Majors is top 5% and now you’re “middle of the road?” The active duty rating system is broken for the 69% of dudes who are not shiny pennies nor bottom feeders. Dudes in that vast “middle of the road” have no idea where they stand and even worse, no real incentive to try harder when their fate is already likely sealed.

Theres a big god damned difference beteeen 15th percentile and 85th percentile but hey, thanks for playing. I guess with manning almost everyone should be free to be continued at O4 indefinitely but that’s cold comfort for many dudes who were thinking O5 was the “standard career.”

This is my confusion as well, how the hell is this middle of the road with multiple top tier strats? Sounds like the dude’s SR either doesn’t know what he is talking about or is playing games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just got my PRF back. 
   I was told it was middle of the road. Sounds like i’ll Have a tough time getting a DP next year IPZ in my current organization
#1/6 CGOs, #2/15 CGOs, #1/9 CGOs, 3x CGOQ (20+ denom)
4 OPRs as Maj... all with strats
  #1/4 Majs (deployed), #5/24 Majs Gp CC, #22/140 Majs Wg CC, #8/150 Majs Wg CC, 2x FGOY, numerous FGOQs, 
no DGs
 
i’ll only have one more OPR before IPZ board meets
 
Middle of the road to me doesn’t bode well for promotion.  am I really doomed?    My SR has very few Majs now.
 


That is someone trying to squeeze blood from a stone (you)...”he’ll work harder for the DP over the next year and make me look good...”
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, pawnman said:

I hope you're right, but previous years statistics seem to contradict your statement.

+1 on this. Previous statistics confirm less than 3% chance for ABZ, and no DP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dream big said:

This is my confusion as well, how the hell is this middle of the road with multiple top tier strats? Sounds like the dude’s SR either doesn’t know what he is talking about or is playing games.

Thanks, guys.   I’m under the impression that he doesn’t know quite what he’s talking about....

this is his first time as a SR and he only has 2 IPZ and 1 BPZ for this board.

Thems the breaks moving from such a huge organization to such a small one.  Many hear have alluded to it as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, pawnman said:

So I sat down with my wing commander, and here are the bullet points:

My recent record is pretty good, but the total record didn't complete well enough to get a DP.

I had a lot of "#1/x" for instructor, evaluator, shop chief, but not a lot of #x/xx captains, majors, CGO, or FGO.  Lesson learned... If your rater or SR is giving you a #1 that isn't CGO/FGO, push them for a CGO/FGO strat.  He told me even a #10/40 majors would have been more helpful than my #2/23 shop chiefs.

My pool was very competitive.  My base was not the only one with too few officers to get an outright DP, so I was competing with others who would have gotten a DP at their wings if there were more people within the wing.  

Bottom line - if you rate on guys, don't give them a #1 of x in a category the board doesn't care about at the expense of a #x/xx (assuming it's a decent one) CGO/FGO or captain/major strat.

I sure wish someone had said that to me about two years ago.

On the bright side, he said boards have largely stopped punishing the lack of staff.  We're starting to normalize people staying in the cockpit, because that is what Big Blue has asked of us.

Your strats, as stated, do not appear to be middle-of-the-road.  That said, do you think there is a chance he meant middle-of-the-road as compared to other BPZ records?  Given that your record only competed for an aggregate DP against other BPZ records, he may have meant that your record was "average" among the people all being pushed for a DP BPZ.  Note also that the BPZ promotion rate is generally <5%, thus even with your strong strats, the odds are not high at being picked up BPZ for any officer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Muscle2002 said:

Your strats, as stated, do not appear to be middle-of-the-road.  That said, do you think there is a chance he meant middle-of-the-road as compared to other BPZ records?  Given that your record only competed for an aggregate DP against other BPZ records, he may have meant that your record was "average" among the people all being pushed for a DP BPZ.  Note also that the BPZ promotion rate is generally <5%, thus even with your strong strats, the odds are not high at being picked up BPZ for any officer.

I'm IPZ.  If I'd had those strats on more than one OPR, is have been more competitive.  But I got the FGO strat on my last OPR, and the major strat on the PRF.  So the record overall is kind of middle-to-top-third, because I don't have CGO or FGO strats throughout.

At least, that's what he told me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...