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Yinzfidel

Herk future in AFRC/ANG

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Folks - what's the general outlook on legacy Herk units in the Guard & Reserves? I'm exploring Palace Chase/Front options in the near-term and trying to gauge viability for 12Ms in anticipation of the FY16 Force Management Programs. I'll be sitting at 16 yrs active next summer and would need to crosstrain from 12B. PM or direct reply greatly appreciated. Cheers.

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Assuming your goal is only 4 years to 20, I'd say the outlook is pretty good.

Every H unit out there is asking for Js, but unless they already have a very solid plan to transition, it's not going to happen in 4 years. My opinion only: Look for units with newer Hs - namely H3s. Logically, they should be some of the last to switch. Obviously the political might of their reps outweighs logic.

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Assuming your goal is only 4 years to 20, I'd say the outlook is pretty good.

Every H unit out there is asking for Js, but unless they already have a very solid plan to transition, it's not going to happen in 4 years. My opinion only: Look for units with newer Hs - namely H3s. Logically, they should be some of the last to switch. Obviously the political might of their reps outweighs logic.

Frankly, I think its less about political might and logic than simply money. I don't think the DoD has the money right now to buy Js for all the remaining Reserve units, and certainly not for the Guard units. If they don't already have Js in their pipeline, they'll keep their Hs for quite a while.

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Bottom line is none of us knows, but I'll add some speculation…I think the maffs units will be the first to get Js-Cheyenne, C springs and Charlotte. Channel Islands already has Js. The newer H3s will get shuffled around, Pretty sure Montana got 2 super Es, but I don't seem that unit going J anytime real soon but it could happen.

Lots of H models in the ARC and even if there was a shit pile of cash lying around, Lockheed can only make Js so fast. AFSOC and rescue are currently getting a bunch, yokota is going to need some tails…it'll be a while before Lockheed needs to convince congress that the ARC needs Js in order to keep the line open

Edited by Warrior

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Any talk of ANG or Reserve C-130 units switching to C-17s? Should be some extra floating around if Charleston and McChord park a few.

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Any talk of ANG or Reserve C-130 units switching to C-17s? Should be some extra floating around if Charleston and McChord park a few.

i could see some groups where the flying overlaps if they have excess equipment, but the better question i think is what will eventually replace the Herk?

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i could see some groups where the flying overlaps if they have excess equipment, but the better question i think is what will eventually replace the Herk?

The J model is replacing the Herk.

Part of the issue with Js replacing Hs in the ARC is that units lose jobs. They would have the same issue with Js. Maybe yall know something I dont, but the C17 production line is done. No way to replace the hundreds of herks in the ARC with 17s. Could you do it with a unit of two? Probably, but where do the tails come from?

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The J model is replacing the Herk.

Part of the issue with Js replacing Hs in the ARC is that units lose jobs. They would have the same issue with Js. Maybe yall know something I dont, but the C17 production line is done. No way to replace the hundreds of herks in the ARC with 17s. Could you do it with a unit of two? Probably, but where do the tails come from?

I was thinking of the follow on to the J, have you seen some of the designs they are talking about? airships?! hah!

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The J model is replacing the Herk.

Part of the issue with Js replacing Hs in the ARC is that units lose jobs. They would have the same issue with Js. Maybe yall know something I dont, but the C17 production line is done. No way to replace the hundreds of herks in the ARC with 17s. Could you do it with a unit of two? Probably, but where do the tails come from?

The 17s on the ramp at Charleston are underutilized. If they redistribute Buddha then there's no need for new tails. But I'm sure they'll just order more and continue the stupidity.

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Any talk of ANG or Reserve C-130 units switching to C-17s? Should be some extra floating around if Charleston and McChord park a few.

I recently heard from somebody, who knows somebody, who robbed somebody that Charlotte ANG is gonna be converting to C-17s, from Charleston, in the near future.

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That rumor has been floating around so long it qualifies for Social Security.

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Bottom line is none of us knows, but I'll add some speculation…I think the maffs units will be the first to get Js-Cheyenne, C springs and Charlotte. Channel Islands already has Js. The newer H3s will get shuffled around, Pretty sure Montana got 2 super Es, but I don't seem that unit going J anytime real soon but it could happen.

Lots of H models in the ARC and even if there was a shit pile of cash lying around, Lockheed can only make Js so fast. AFSOC and rescue are currently getting a bunch, yokota is going to need some tails…it'll be a while before Lockheed needs to convince congress that the ARC needs Js in order to keep the line open

Montana did get two Super Es (essentially E-models with H-model -15 engines) and they have H1s. Arguably the oldest Herks in the fleet...but most of those got new wing boxes a few years ago and still have substantial life in them, so I don't see them going to the boneyard really soon.

I think eventually you'll see the ARC slowly convert to the J. Some units will probably get C-17s as the need for strat airlift subsides (hopefully). Some of the more heavily tasked ARC units will get Js first. Maryland is actually the first unit to receive them and is slated to get their jets at the end of this decade. More will likely follow. Other Herk units will probably close...I know AFRC and HAF have wanted to shut down units like Pittsburgh for years.

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Wait what? Maryland - which used to have Es, then got Js, then got C-27s, then lost their iron altogether and replaced it with an intel squadron - is getting Js again? Source?

Charlotte divesting itself of the -130 and associated MAFFS mission (which presumably would need to be picked up by another east coast -130 unit) and getting C-17s is a rumor I have been hearing for a while, but I've recently heard 2 different ANG OGs tell me it's likely to happen "soon." Whatever that means....

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I've heard C-Springs is pushing to get C-17's. They probably have some political might in that area, and the WYANG has H3's up the street that also do MAFFS.

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Maryland getting Js isn't a done deal. It's just the latest "roadmap" out there...not that it matters because it seems like they redraw the roadmap every freakin' year. Just a few more years and I'll be retired...

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Take this with a grain of salt….

Have you ever parked on Guard ramp at CLT? No F-ing way they are going C-17s. Don't have the space for it.

Based on the rumors - the 130 is likely to remain in the ANG for a long time and your best best to fly legacy. AFRC might see the day of some wings going away, some being associated to active J-model wings. Kind of depends on how long current AFRC leadership stays around, how much Congress pushes back, how quickly Big Blue gets new J-models off the factory line, how well current AFRC 130 wings justify their existence.

St. Jo is probably safe due to AATTC and the WIC being there. No idea on Minneapolis - after all the Congressional and Army push back on Pope likely to see AFRC try another 130 wing to close. My money is on Maxwell (again) or maybe Niagara, but who knows.

Again, this and $8 will get you a Denny's Grand Slam.

Edited by Hotel

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Take this with a grain of salt.

Have you ever parked on Guard ramp at CLT? No F-ing way they are going C-17s. Don't have the space for it.

Based on the rumors - the 130 is likely to remain in the ANG for a long time and your best best to fly legacy. AFRC might see the day of some wings going away, some being associated to active J-model wings. Kind of depends on how long current AFRC leadership stays around, how much Congress pushes back, how quickly Big Blue gets new J-models off the factory line, how well current AFRC 130 wings justify their existence.

St. Jo is probably safe due to AATTC and the WIC being there. No idea on Minneapolis - after all the Congressional and Army push back on Pope likely to see AFRC try another 130 wing to close. My money is on Maxwell (again) or maybe Niagara, but who knows.

Again, this and $8 will get you a Denny's Grand Slam.

It is a small ramp, but that hangar is built to C-17 specs because they thought they'd get ol Buddha back in the mid 90's. The AMC/CC made a visit there last fall too. But again, it's all about jobs for the state. Do the senators want to lose 2 crew positions and the ### amount of jobs that goes with that decision? Not to mention they're a MAFFS unit, and that's something you want to hang on to.

My $0.02

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My bet is the Springs gets C-17's. We've got Herks up the street at the WYANG for the Herk/MAFFS mission, and the Springs has the political power to do it.

Personally, I'm not sure how the ARC operates C-17 ops tempo. My experience with AD guys say the plane is *always* on the road, and should never be sitting still in order to fully utilize it (like an airline does). Not sure how an ARC unit meets that kind of manning requirement.

Also no idea how a state would justify the reach/ability of a C-17 for state-support missions. Colorado needs an air-refueling, long range strat asset? Ok.

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The ARC already operates the C-17 and has for some time. It certainly wouldn't be a new mission to either AFRC or the ANG.

MS and TN already operate the C-17. WV and NY will get the jets in the near future if they already haven't started flying them.

AFRC has a C-17 wing at March and WPAFB, along with the associate units at TCM, CHS and WRI.

The idea COS or CLT could get the C-17 mission isn't unfathomable.

Edited by Hueypilot

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Personally, I'm not sure how the ARC operates C-17 ops tempo. My experience with AD guys say the plane is *always* on the road, and should never be sitting still in order to fully utilize it (like an airline does). Not sure how an ARC unit meets that kind of manning requirement.

The same way any other Reserve/Guard MAF unit keeps their missions manned - ARTs/Technicians, troughers/bums, and traditionals that have enough flexibility in their .civ employment to take time off their "real" jobs to play Air Force.

Re: jets always being on the road - I can't speak for other locations, but there's always several jets, both -17 and -10, sitting on the ramp at WRI (AD/AFRC Associate wings). Training fences, MX headaches, and random "static jet" taskers will all conspire to keep a portion of the jets on the ramp at home station, even for units that "own" their jets.

WV and NY will get the jets in the near future if they already haven't started flying them.

Stewart jets have been in the system for a few years now; their tailflash has an apple and the Statue of Liberty in it.

150323-Z-ZZ000-004.jpg

Martinsburg sent their last C-5 to AMARC in May '15; they're flying the C-17 exclusively now. Dunno how many jets they have; they're supposed to get 8.

EDIT: Add Toasty quote & reply, and Martinsburg info.

Edited by JarheadBoom

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