gearhog

LOL. No, I think he's terrible with kids. I was being sarcastic.

So what is your argument, then? That the clips are wrong, but they may later be proven right? GTFO. That every last person in Gaza are hardcore Hamas supporters who as a whole, want this war and all these civilians are happy do die in droves to further their cause? That everyone in Israel supports carpet-bombing Palestinian territories into oblivion? Why are you offended that I would offer a perspective other than that? "Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." - Marcus Aurelius. I'm relaying what I'm seeing and hearing with my own eyes and ears. It's different than what you're seeing and hearing. That should be fine, but because I'm not here to sit in your circle jerk and chant "Death to Palestine" or "Death to Israel" or whatever your position is, you have a problem with it. Conveniently, you haven't provided a personal perspective here. Until you do, you can sit there and listen to mine and be consterned, annoyed, offended, and kick rocks. Grow a spine, come up with an original position you can make an argument for, and put it out there. I welcome it and I'll give it respectful consideration. What I don't respect is whining and useless rants. “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” Mark Twain - Following The Equator My entire argument here is for disengagement and de-escalation. If you're accusing me of hyping up my position in favor of that, I really don't fucking care. I'm not trying to mislead anyone. I've been around long enough to know how this ends, and you should have, also. You must not have been paying attention. You want to bang the drums of war in the ME? Be my guest. But realize there isn't an outcome where you and your family do not become entangled in it. just got off the phone an hour ago with the offices of my State Representative and Senators. Call yours and give them the same vague, non-committal, bs you're giving me. See how it goes. "Young warriors are always eager for battle, old warriors know better." - Robert Ferrigno Yeah, you must not have been here long. I was in the same SQ with the same dude that founded this website at the exact time he did. Every little while someone opines that "This forum ain't what it used to be!" Bullshit. It's always been this. And people always threaten to leave. Go ahead. No one cares. There are two types of people on this forum: People I disagree with and value, and people I disagree with and don't value. Guess which one. Edit: I realize I may put a little too much zing in that one. The irony of "de-escalation" isn't lost on me. Don't take is personally. 😁

It's easier to think of and digest both Israeli and Palestinian people as being a monolithic society, paint with a broad brush, and hold them to all to account. It's much more difficult and confusing to conceptualize them as a complex society, many of which are oppressed for their beliefs and viewpoints. Example 1: Palestinian women being beaten for saying Hamas are dogs and are to blame for the deaths of their loved ones. Example 2: Orthodox Jews are beaten on the street by Israeli police for speaking against the war. Example 3: Bombs falling near a Christian Church in Gaza. What side are they on? I don't think it's fair to hold everyone in either Gaza or Israel accountable for a conflict they don't endorse. I also realize it's impossible to defend yourself without inflicting collateral damage. But there is absolutely no talk of a solution other than total war. Why is that not an option for any of the current conflicts we find ourselves in?

House Resolution 559 passed yesterday afternoon. Remember when there was an attack on 9/11, a conflict in AFG and we were able to make Iraq part of the same operation and 20 years passed? Remember when there was an attack on 10/7, a conflict in Israel and we were able to make Iran part of the same operation and 20 years passed? If the process ain't broke, don't fix it. Whereas international complacency toward Iran’s illicit nu- clear program threatens the global nonproliferation re- gime: Now, therefore, be it Resolved, That the House of Representatives declares it is the policy of the United States— (1) that a nuclear Islamic Republic of Iran is not acceptable; (2) that Iran must not be able to obtain a nuclear weapon under any circumstances or conditions; (3) to use all means necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon; and (4) to recognize and support the freedom of action of partners and allies, including Israel, to pre- vent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

We got vital data before terminating the test for an unexpected anomaly! Great success!

This caravan is 7000 and growing. Estimated to be 8000 by the time it reaches the border. It seems that these migrants are organized and funded by groups that have hostile intent to the US, but I don't know who. Theories? EDIT: Nevermind. Found it. White House has been contributing billions to the UN International Organization for Migration (IOM) which in turn, provides debit cards, cell phones, and logistics support. https://nypost.com/2023/11/01/news/leader-of-largest-migrant-caravan-since-2022-mocks-joe-biden/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

I think you've misinterpreted my position on Israel. Israel should do whatever Israel wants. This conflict pre-dates you, me, and everyone involved or commenting on it. I think it would be conceited for me to posture as if I know the answer or was qualified to make a moral determination in a conflict I am not a part of, in a part of the world I do not reside, amongst people I have no connection to. We're even less qualified to inflict violence based on our half-assed assessments. This conflict is no more and no less important to me than any other great tragedy or injustice befalling other people around the world. Why would anyone attempt to make me feel as if I have some of obligation to support a side in this particular instance? Is it better to say you support something and actually doing nothing, or saying you support doing nothing? I estimate 99% of people who pretend to have strong feelings on the matter get a bit of a charge out of public righteous moral indignation and virtue signalling. But would they vote to send a family member to march behind a tank through Gaza in support of Israel? I think we've done a reasonable enough job setting up Israel for success. But it's like a 25 year old that won't leave home. Sink or swim. Based on my upbringing, culture, and belief system, Hamas are fucking animals. What would you do yourself if someone did those things you mentioned to your family? You'd kill them and I'd help you. I might even help you burn the house. But when you start slaughtering the neighbors and leveling the whole community because they tolerated the killer's existence, I gotta disengage somewhere. When does justice become revenge? I don't understand this part. What do you mean there is no moral question about destroying a school with a bad guy in it? Are you saying we should or should not be disregarding morality? I wouldn't. "Our increasingly isolationist position had not led to the flourishing of peace and tranquility?" We have 750 bases in 80 countries and 170,000 military members deployed around the world. How is that isolationist? Wouldn't it be more reasonable to say that foreign involvements and interventions have created hostility? You seem to be saying you support conflict, but not so much as to actually involve our troops. If you can draw an arbitrary line as to how committed you are to a cause, why can't I? Why would you create a impossible hypothetical about how many people would be killed when there's an actual war being fought and they're both doing just that in reality? The numbers are the numbers. Hey, brother. I just want to make it clear that I know I'm being challenging, but I respect your opinion. I spend more time debating points with myself in my own mind than I do online.

Gotta give credit where due. Biden is great around kids. Here, he hands out packs of cigarettes to desperate children in this wholesome White house Halloween party. https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1719277970022408411?s=20

Perception is reality. Israel had been given a huge moral advantage and as Mearsheimer above said, they should have learned lessons from our responses after 9/11. They overplayed their hand and the perception quickly shifted. The masses of hundreds of thousands of people on the streets don't care about LOAC, they care about the daily videos of Palestinian children bloodied, horrifically injured, or dead. Modern communication is a more effective weapon than a bomb, and we seem to be struggling with that. I'm reminded of the old interview dilemma which asks "You're holding two people by the hand dangling over a cliff but can only pull one up. Which one?" I personally think Israel brings more overall value to the world, but not enough to risk the US. They're in a seemingly impossible situation. I'd turn em both loose.

That was f'n awesome. Never heard of Mearsheimer before, but he's articulating everything I've been seeing. From failure of American leadership, Israel just making things worse, Ukraine losing, NATO expansion, that it is not in our interest to be in Gaza or Ukraine, and our inadvertent strengthening of China's position.

I dislike CNN as much as anyone here, but what does it say when the corporate mainstream media propagandists refuse to reinforce the narrative when they've loyally carried the water for this admin on every other issue? Blinken and Austin were begging Congress for $100 Billion in support of Israel, on the same day CNN airs this. Support for Israel is declining, even moreso with reports like this. Be it the economy, border security, public health emergencies, the Afghan withdrawl, the failed UKR counter-offensive, the trend is failure. I don't like to think that. But we've gotta face facts. This administration is positioning a massive fighting force, all that is needed is a defining moment or event that justifies using it while re-galvanizing public support. Then, they're gonna fuck it up. Again.

The Eisenhower CSG just entered the Med. Two Super Carriers and their Strike Groups. Two VTOL carriers. 13 Guided missile cruisers and destroyers and dozens of frigates and logistics/cargo ships. Watching Kaliningrad. Souda Bay MOG'd out. One additional airfield approved for overflow. We're asking Greece for more. Yemen formally declares war on Israel. https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1719384314389868679?s=20 Blinken and Austin testified today to ask for another $100+ Billion for war. https://www.reuters.com/world/wars-rage-biden-administration-make-case-106-billion-ukraine-israel-2023-10-31/ https://x.com/SecYellen/status/1719154013533294736?s=20

@nsplayr, here's some Elon Musk news that actually is relevant to the discussion. https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1718353404035039660?s=20

Erdogan threatens Israel in a speech to massive crowd. He also speaks to the West in general. “Hey West, I ask you, do you want to reignite the war between the crescent and the cross?” Perhaps NATO can sub-in Ukraine for Turkey in a 1 for 1 swap. https://x.com/5Pillarsuk/status/1718335986743046332?s=20

Irrelevant. Disregarded.

First, of all the ideas in my post, Elon's quote was of the least importance. Which of his predictions have been proven false? I'm sure there have been some, just not sure what they are. Second, you're a former AF nav who consistently expresses less than accurate assessments on a message board, mocking a guy that started his own successful car company and space program, based on his predictions. Given your self-assured knack for identifying irony and lack of self-reflection, how did you miss this one? LOL. Third, in this specific quote, where is the flaw? Would you say the world, as a whole, is trending toward an increasing level of chaos and conflict, or away from it? Type "Yes" if you agree with Elon. Type "No" if you'd like to make a prediction outside your "field of expertise".

Easy, you just don't lead 'em so much. https://x.com/TONYxTWO/status/1717657798807290069?s=20

What is this? It seems unprecedented. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-halts-exports-of-most-civilian-firearms-for-90-days/ar-AA1iYGFf?ocid=socialshare&pc=U531&cvid=520d82b7ac8242239a356151bd2bff40&ei=11 This pause applies to the Bureau of Industry and Security’s (BIS) issuance of new licenses involving certain firearms, related components, and ammunition controlled on the Commerce Control List, Supp. No. 1 to part 774 of the Export Administration Regulations, 15 CFR parts 730-774 (EAR), specifically, the following four Export Control Classification Numbers (ECCNs): ECCN 0A501, ECCN 0A502, ECCN 0A504, and ECCN 0A505, that are destined for non-governmental end users worldwide apart from those located in Ukraine, Israel, or a country in Country Group A:1 (Wassenaar Arrangement Participating States), Supp. No. 1 to part 740 of the EAR. Consistent with the above, the Department’s International Trade Administration (ITA), Global Markets and U.S. & Foreign Commercial Service is pausing acceptance of new requests for export assistance (fee or non-fee-based) for firearms and ammunition to non-governmental end users worldwide, apart from those located in Ukraine, Israel, and Country Group A:1. The ITA pause applies to semi-automatic and non-automatic firearms, firearm optics, shotguns, and receivers (frames) and ammunition.

Explain.

I just heard Elon Musk say this, and it's an interesting thought. “I think we are sleepwalking towards World War III. With one stupid decision after another. People need to do some self-reflection. If their forecasts did not come true, they should think that maybe the rest of their forecasts will not come true,” - They turned off the lights. No supplies. There is apparently a ground invasion. Massive airstrikes leveling parts of the city. Earlier, they cut all internet and comms to Gaza. Still, horrific videos are still being circulated. I don't know that a war of this intensity, in a densely populated civilian area, has been fought when while the global population has this level of unregulated access to information regarding it. However you feel about either side, there is a high probability Israel is going to lose control of the narrative. Israel was given a strong hand to play, but are they overplaying it? My impression, based on the number of people in the streets around the world, is that if you multiply those numbers on both sides by their passion and motivation to act on their beliefs, is that this is going to get very ugly, and the disparity is huge. Israel wiping Gaza off the map may be an emotionally satisfying thought, but it's a fire that could ignite the world, and no one can forecast the result. https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1718066605920235569?s=20

Talked to some homies on alert in Guard squadrons. We're getting ready to defend the shit out of the USA. Fortuitous that we had already moved so many assets into the region in the event of attacks such as these. Yesterday: Today:

I think we, in the West, have an altogether different understanding of war and death. I encourage you to watch the entire thing if you haven't already seen it, but the 5:00 mark makes my point. We have a very long way to go if we think we're going to attrit the Russians into submission.

True, I typed that partially in jest, but partially to make the point that we are contributing a portion of your and my productive value to a conflict over land that has little intrinsic value. So if we're not protecting the land, what is it we are receiving in return for our investment in this conflict? "We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved. "It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another. "They're a threat to Europe and the West." I've asked this before. If all it took was a throwing a bargain sum of money at the problem to stop Russia a few miles into Ukraine, how were they ever a threat to anyone that really matters? What's the score card on former Soviet republics joining NATO vs. joining Russia. After decades watching them being absorbed into the other team, Russia finally decides to take a stand over the shittiest and most corrupt one of the bunch. I'd say have at it. Let UKR be the anchor around their neck for next few decades, because that's exactly what they're gonna be for us. Sort of like Greece for the European Union. 120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat? I contend that the collapse of Russia is a greater threat than its existence. As Russia leadership has a numerous times, "Why should the world exist without Russia?" There have been times in recent history where our relationship with Russia has been cooperative and mutually beneficial. Can anyone figure out the common thread during times where the relationship has soured? This is an immensely complicated issue, and I'm trying to weigh as many factors and variables as I can comprehend. I love my country, and I love my life in it. After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one. That's why my intent here is to be somewhat disagreeable and challenging. If I were pawnman, I'd instantly submerse myself in whatever the official narrative is for the "current thing", be it COVID, Ukraine, Israel, etc., and regurgitate it without a single original or critical thought while trying to high five everybody in the room for being one of the bros. Nobody likes that.

If you want to take a shot at me, grow a spine and do so directly. Obviously, you're a big fan of indirect engagement, but I think it's a weak way to handle your business. I could draw it out for you in crayon and stick figures, and you'd still be incapable of understanding. I do not support Russia, and you're a fool for believing you, me, and the people we care about will experience a better life as a result of this. You're watching the conflict unfold from a half a planet away, and through a soda straw, while nutting in your underoos because you saw a bad guy get exploded. Ok, enough insults. 😄 Here's what I see: a great unraveling of global political, social, and economic orders. Consequences of unlimited growth in world of finite resources. Thucydidies trap. A bunch of 80 year olds spending our nation into oblivion to settle old conflicts before they kick it. Some napkin math I just did: The average price, per acre, of land in Ukraine is $580. Russia has assumed control of approx 30 million acres of mostly farmland. That's $17 Billion dollars. For the $113 Billion we've spent, and gotten nothing, we could have bought the land, built homes and infrastructure, and populated the area with Mexicans, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Africans, Americans, Liberals, Transvestites, whomever... and still had money left over. NATO could have thrown Russia into chaos without a single weapon. This whole thing is hilariously insane. So yeah, big f'n waste.