"As Met" records were posted in PRDA for the P0517A board...must be getting close.  Still no update on mypers since first week of April.

On 4/30/2017 at 5:08 PM, bennynova said:

TERA isn't current authorized anymore.  It was when they were RIFing.  But expired 

TERA is authorized by Congress until 31 December 2018, at the discretion of the service chiefs.  Our service chief isn't currently offering it.

Mypers updated for the O-4 board. Estimated release mid-late June.


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On 5/2/2017 at 1:02 PM, Duck said:

Mypers updated for the O-4 board. Estimated release mid-late June.


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Sooooo....early August?

Updated today on mypers...public release for CY17A O-5 LAF board is 23 May.

 

Good luck everyone...

First time I've ever seen an announcement like that.    Ever

18 minutes ago, Steve Canyon said:

So do WG CCs have the list now?

I'd say yes.  Or at least they have the list for those they are the senior rather ID for

 

 in afproms.  Says it right there in the image

Maybe ignorant question, is it common for most Commanders to let you know as soon as they know or to leave you hanging till public release?


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Maybe ignorant question, is it common for most Commanders to let you know as soon as they know or to leave you hanging till public release?


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Used to be day prior to public release by reg or something. Some commanders tell you early some don't.

I was notified the day before public release for both my Major's boards.  Continuation was offered the day before public release as well.

11 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

Used to be day prior to public release by reg or something. Some commanders tell you early some don't.

 

Nothing in AFI 36-2501...must be just a customary thing.

Are the statistics of the board publicly available now?  Promotion rates for various categories should be pretty interesting...

21 hours ago, Duck said:

Maybe ignorant question, is it common for most Commanders to let you know as soon as they know or to leave you hanging till public release?


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From my time as an exec the data would show up from the FSS to our office.  They would provide a letter of congratulations/regret that would typically be given to the Sq/CC's for dissemination.  The letters would be signed by the senior rater and he would invite a time to discuss the results if anyone was interested.  Also we would notify the non-selects first before the selects.  I don't remember there ever being a NET release date.  We would get the info out ASAP, usually a couple of days from receipt until all were notified.  It was understood that folks wouldn't make it facebook official until the time of the official release.  

I have seen other senior raters hand the letters out themselves.  This typically delayed the notification becuase finding a block in their schedule large enough for the LTC or Maj board results is difficult.

Senior Raters and the FSS have always gotten the info early

both have letters to draft, documentation to update on surfs, etc

group and squadron commanders or equivalent find out a few days later.   Individuals have always found out by COB prior to release date.   

 

Statistics don't generally come out until public release date.  Sometimes a senior rather Or base might try to figure out statistics based on their persons and the list, but it's only accurate to a certain degree. 

 

 

21 hours ago, Ram said:

Are the statistics of the board publicly available now?  Promotion rates for various categories should be pretty interesting...

Not as of 13 MAY. And for those looking, said statistics are located in AFPC Secure's Retrieval Application Web area under "Static Demographics." I used the site to determine if USAF rounded up or down to my 1% odds of selection. All the best to those competing! 

85% promotion rate this year

  65% in the zone.   

The remainder comes from below and above the zone and equates numerically to roughly 20% of the in the zone eligibles.   

85% promotion rate this year
  65% in the zone.   
The remainder comes from below and above the zone and equates numerically to roughly 20% of the in the zone eligibles.   

Are those stats coming off of AFPC or any place else that's accessible? Any further breakdown of the stats?


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42 minutes ago, bennynova said:

 

  65% in the zone.   

Is that down for ITZ?

Those stats are from estimated from majcom results this year. 

21 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Is that down for ITZ?

If they hold to be true, then yes they are down.    Numbers Ive seen tell me that APZ promotions are up.   I think there may be over 100 ABZ promotions this year.  

8 hours ago, bennynova said:

Those stats are from estimated from majcom results this year. 

Which majcom?

How does lowering the IPZ opportunity this year to accommodate APZ help? It will just kick the can to subsequent years.

11 hours ago, bennynova said:

85% promotion rate this year

  65% in the zone.   

The remainder comes from below and above the zone and equates numerically to roughly 20% of the in the zone eligibles.   

These stats don't make sense to me. From 2016 there were 1411 IPZ eligibles, with a 74% IPZ select rate meaning roughly 365 IPZ non-selects from 2016. Last year there were almost 3500 BPZ eligibles (includes both 1- and 2-yr BPZ). Assuming we limit BPZ to 5% and IPZ to 65% and promote 100% of last years non selects that results in a 28% overall promotion rate across the entire BPZ+IPZ+APZ pool.

edit:

(0.65*IPZ+0.05*BPZ+0.3*APZ) / (IPZ eligibles) ~ 85% overall selection rate

I think this is what was meant by 85% promotion rate.

Edited May 16, 20178 yr by Dogs-N-Guns
I think I figured out the fuzzy math...

So with an overall promotion opportunity of 85%, that equates to a 75% I/APZ selection rate if the 10% BPZ opportunity is used completely.

If I was a betting man, I'd put this year's IPZ rate at 73% and APZ at 5%.

So:

There were around 1439 IPZ elibles.  the 85% opportunity equates to ~1223 promotions available.  ~122 are available for BPZs.  That leaves ~1101 for I/APZs to share.  The IPZ DP rate was 50%, so there were 719 DPs, so 382 Ps that got promoted in the I/APZ category (assuming 100% of DPs got picked up).  So the P selection rate for I/APZ (with ~1063 APZ) was 382/(719+1036) or 21%.  Realistically, that'll skew towards IPZ vice APZ.

Historically, IPZ rates are (from AFPC):

2016:  74.13%

2015:  72.03%

2014:  67.00% (opportunity was only 75% that year I believe)

2013:  74.40%

2012:  75.43%

2002-2011 average:  73.69%

So, USUALLY (2014 and 2012 being probable exceptions), 10% gets taken off the 85% opportunity to give to BPZ.  Some small percentage of the remaining 75% goes to APZ guys, and the rest goes to IPZ.