Tonka Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 20 hours ago, di1630 said: Sure didn't. Too busy in FTU....We did celebrate actual accomplishments though. Our FTU solo party had nice strippers but that was more about an excuse to get strippers than celebrating the 3rd jet we solo'd in. You completely contradicted yourself twice I think, and totally missed the sarcasm in all the previous posts you aimed to contradict. So which is it? Did you celebrate "actual accomplishments" or did you just find an excuse to party like everyone else was alluding to? Where you too busy in FTU to celebrate or were you not. I'm so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
di1630 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Sure didn't. Too busy in FTU....We did celebrate actual accomplishments though. Our FTU solo party had nice strippers but that was more about an excuse to get strippers than celebrating the 3rd jet we solo'd in. You completely contradicted yourself twice I think, and totally missed the sarcasm in all the previous posts you aimed to contradict. So which is it? Did you celebrate "actual accomplishments" or did you just find an excuse to party like everyone else was alluding to? Where you too busy in FTU to celebrate or were you not. I'm so confused. Apologies for the confusion. We actually just celebrated the fact we were able to afford strippers on LT pay. That was a big accomplishment however this was years before Facebook. These days I'd just make post congratulating myself and if I got over 100 likes, I'd throw myself a small party and wallow in my accomplishment. C'mon people....congratulating yourself on Facebook for getting something, 99+% of eligible people received....all in hopes any non-military educated family/friends think it's a big deal.....Gay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADFNZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 7 hours ago, di1630 said: Apologies for the confusion. We actually just celebrated the fact we were able to afford strippers on LT pay. That was a big accomplishment however this was years before Facebook. These days I'd just make post congratulating myself and if I got over 100 likes, I'd throw myself a small party and wallow in my accomplishment. C'mon people....congratulating yourself on Facebook for getting something, 99+% of eligible people received....all in hopes any non-military educated family/friends think it's a big deal.....Gay. Well I know who won't be getting an invite to my "3 weeks without a sexual assault" party. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
driver Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Good luck to any worried about the O-4 results. Have any wings "released" results? In regards to O-3 promotes being too proud for some on this forum...I think it's perfectly fine for anyone to be proud regardless of the statistical chances. Who cares if they tell their family that they became a Captain. It would be more "odd" if they didn't. Those same newly promoted captains will still know they will continue to make popcorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 LOL We need a board pizza party for no security violations yet this year weve been doing so well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think it's perfectly fine for anyone to be proud regardless of the statistical chances. Who cares if they tell their family that they became a Captain. It would be more "odd" if they didn't. Agreed, in fact trying to tell mom and aunt peru that we promoted at 100% usually falls on deaf ears and they want to pinch your checks and share your picture everywhere regardless... There's a difference between being proud at what you do using periodic milestones, regardless of difficulty of attainment, to show it versus scheduling the base theater for a captain pin-on and asking everyone to contribute to your pig roast to celebrate... unless, of course, you are providing strippers. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Interested in the board stats results are published in afpc at noon wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
celtic020 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hope everyone who was sweating it on here fared well. I got promoted with a P...no school. But I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bode Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 My OG was 20 of 30 eligibles. Puts it right at 67%. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, Lstcause257 said: My OG was 20 of 30 eligibles. Puts it right at 67%. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Your operations group only had a 67 % promotion rate?? isnt the overall promotion rate 95% and weren't there 75% DPs, meaning that around 23 of your 30 should have had DPs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 58 minutes ago, celtic020 said: Hope everyone who was sweating it on here fared well. I got promoted with a P...no school. But I'll take it! Congrats Celtic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 29 minutes ago, Lstcause257 said: My OG was 20 of 30 eligibles. Puts it right at 67%. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That is really low. How many were APZ and how many were IPZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlphaMikeFoxtrot Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 (edited) Overall promotion rate was right at 93%, within 1% of last year. Only allocated DPs at 70% this year vs typical 75%. Edited to remove bad data. Edited January 27, 2016 by AlphaMikeFoxtrot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Someone care to explain the math? if 70% are DP and near 100% promotion rate, then the remaining 30% are Ps and in order to get to 93% promotion rate, 75% of Ps would have to be promoted .... Or a total of (23/30)% Not sure where the above 28% up from 20% is coming from (unless you mean that 28% of ABZ Ps were promoted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bode Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 My OG was 20 of 30 eligibles. Puts it right at 67%. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Your operations group only had a 67 % promotion rate?? isnt the overall promotion rate 95% and weren't there 75% DPs, meaning that around 23 of your 30 should have had DPs?? I will do some asking around but that is the word from my CC. I will try to get more specifics tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Those numbers aren't jiving. We had 100% out of around 12-15 eligible a IPZ and one pass over who requested it to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlphaMikeFoxtrot Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 28 minutes ago, bennynova said: Someone care to explain the math? if 70% are DP and near 100% promotion rate, then the remaining 30% are Ps and in order to get to 93% promotion rate, 75% of Ps would have to be promoted .... Or a total of (23/30)% Not sure where the above 28% up from 20% is coming from (unless you mean that 28% of ABZ Ps were promoted) I'm no mathematician nor do I claim to be. These are the numbers as reported by AFPC. I phoned a friend today and got them since MyPers does not have them posted online yet; even though they so graciously direct non-selects to check out how competitive their board was. Unfortunately I do not have the spreadsheet in front of me but I will attempt to explain. A DP does not necessarily equal a promotion for an individual. There are rare occurrences that do not lead to a promotion. Those numbers did not sink into my grey matter so I will not speculate on them. Additionally the remainder of the pool does not equal a P. There are some DNPs. Basically, the 5% you're looking for could be made up in the DPs not promoting, the DNPs, as well as whatever other outliers are considered in their formula. I dug pretty deep today to capture the data, compared the Day 66 mesage from 2014 (75% DP allocation) to the 2015 message (70%) as well as looked at where the swing occurred. The reduction in DPs allocated were made up in a greater percentage of Ps promoting this year i.e. they left more up to the board. I will take better (actual) notes tomorrow and provide better data though I'm fairly confident what I reported is what AFPC is reporting. I'm getting old and my mind is starting to fail me. PM me your .mil and I'd be glad to send you the document. Duck…glad you guys did well. We had 22/32 selected, pretty sure Lstcause and I are at the same place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 48 minutes ago, bennynova said: Someone care to explain the math? if 70% are DP and near 100% promotion rate, then the remaining 30% are Ps and in order to get to 93% promotion rate, 75% of Ps would have to be promoted .... Or a total of (23/30)% Not sure where the above 28% up from 20% is coming from (unless you mean that 28% of ABZ Ps were promoted) Assume 2,500 eligibles, therefore 2,325 total promotable at 93% rate. Assume no DNPs. At 70% DP rate, 1,750 get a DP. Assume 100% promotion for DPs for simplicity. The remaining pool is 2,325-1,750=575 eligible with a P. 575/2500=23% of the total promoted had a P. 575/750=76% of those with a P were promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlphaMikeFoxtrot Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said: Assume 2,500 eligibles, therefore 2,325 total promotable at 93% rate. Assume no DNPs. At 70% DP rate, 1,750 get a DP. Assume 100% promotion for DPs for simplicity. The remaining pool is 2,325-1,750=575 eligible with a P. 575/2500=23% of the total promoted had a P. 575/750=76% of those with a P were promoted. Pretty sure that's the math benny used, his question was why the 23% vs the reported 28% of Ps promoted. That's the 5% I attempted to address with DNPs and DPs not selected. 5% seems a bit high for those rare pools but may be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennynova Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said: Pretty sure that's the math benny used, his question was why the 23% vs the reported 28% of Ps promoted. That's the 5% I attempted to address with DNPs and DPs not selected. 5% seems a bit high for those rare pools but may be accurate. I think we are all on the same page, I just read your post to have different meaning than you meant. i would have worded it that 28% of those packages promoted were Ps. i wasn't worried about 23% vs 28%... I thought you were saying that only 28% of the P packages were promoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Okay that's what I read too. Meaning if you had a P you only had a 28% chance at promotion. We may have done well with O-4s but we sucked at the O-5 board and I don't see it getting any better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Good info for those non-school selects on the fence at their 10 year point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Okay that's what I read too. Meaning if you had a P you only had a 28% chance at promotion. We may have done well with O-4s but we sucked at the O-5 board and I don't see it getting any better.. Last year's O-5 board or are you seeing the future for this year's board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ha ha both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlphaMikeFoxtrot Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Turns out I am old and forgetful. Accurate numbers as promised: 2015 IPZ 92.7% APZ 20.3% 2014 IPZ 91.8% APZ 28.7% I confused the pilot IPZ P w/SOS rate of 78% in 2015 and 71% in 2014 with the APZ rates in my earlier posts. Similar increases were shown in other career fields as well for this category. I apologize for the confusion. Hopefully this helps clear it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now