busdriver

Almost every politician has been a panicky shit sandwich. Organizations have twisted the truth (with good intentions in their hearts) in an attempt at modifying people's behavior, but it's still bullshit. The media is behaving like a cat chasing a laser pointer, knowing they want to craft a narrative but can't figure out what it should be other than A: Trump is evil and Fox News sucks or B: Trump is awesome and CNN is evil. The people need to be told the truth, then allowed to make decisions. If the people can't be trusted to act responsibly of their own free will, what's the point of having a free society? Yes, I realize that statement is lacking in a lot of the nuance that is actually necessary in making a functional government. Then again, telling people who lost their jobs because the government shut down their employer to just fucking stay at home and stop bitching is pretty fucking obtuse. The reality is this will continue in waves until a vaccine is developed or the pandemic has run it's course, either way ending in herd immunity or a virus mutated for lower mortality that we just learn to live with.

Old engineering cliche: All models are inaccurate, some are useful. The data is seriously crappy. Given the apparent wide range of symptoms (asymptomatic all the way to knocking on death's door) and the limited amount of testing that is triaged to more serious cases, the case fatality rate is inflated if you just divide deaths by total verified cases. The lower CFR being reported is (I assume) an estimate based on epidemiological modeling. As an example, if you just take total verified cases in Italy, the CFR is something like 12%. But that same number also results in only a quarter of a percent penetration into the population, New York state is around 2% penetration. Which seems like an insanely low percentage given the Ro estimate of 2.5ish. Even more so when you consider the seasonal flu is around 1.3 and the 1918 pandemic is something like 1.8. For reference, I scrounged around google and found a paper (published years ago) on selective social distancing to control a flu epidemic. Based on a "small town model" of 10k residents and an epidemic meant to be representative of the 1918 flu (natural progression 50% of the population would get it before herd immunity did its thing), they applied a handful of different techniques and managed a maximum reduction down to 15% getting it. They assumed kids and teens were the primary vector so restricted their movements (closed schools and kept kids/teens at home). Would a total societal application get that percentage down to the 1-2% range? Maybe? The information from people who know things is being filtered through communications majors who don't have the aptitude to understand any of it. They are incentivized to freak people out, it sells ads. So take it seriously, but freaking out and destroying everything because we're scared isn't a good idea either.

Checkout "1" on amazon prime or netflix. Almost a remake of "The Formula 1 Drivers: aka The Quick and The Dead" Both good

Unless you're close to the highway and your destination is as well, everywhere takes 30min in Tucson.

This will either pop then go away like a zit, or it will be how the Iraqi civil war begins. The advantage of Iran's strategy of using surrogate forces is plausible deniability, mainly that they can back down without losing face internally by denying their involvement. The direction this goes will be about Iranian leadership maintaining power, and the internal messaging required to do that.

I was out riding around Tucson today and happened to see a four ship that looked like they were setting up for a missing man formation (or maybe it was my imagination) and I thought of this thread and Pyro, even though I never met the man. That moment had me thinking about this military aviation family, and all the things society fights about that don't mean anything. It was a sort of Zen moment, I'm grateful for it, and I'm damn lucky to be in this family. Life is too short to not live it. Him, Him.

The AFSOC fleet isn't nearly big enough to do what these guys are talking about, and helos don't have nearly the range. Logistically supporting an AOR wide aircraft dispersal plan would not be any easy task.

I'm not pretending anything. In that theater, AF CSAR is 100% responsible to the CFACC, and weren't their to cover western Iraq. Moving assets to support a CFLCC mission lengthens response time elsewhere, the decision to do so, or not rests with the owning component. You're barking up the wrong tree. I realize that things look stupid and byzantine when the closest guys aren't the primary responders. We all don't work for the same Bobs, and "the joint fight" isn't as joint as the shiny brochure would have everyone believe.

Your concern is the land component didn't plan/resource for it's needs and then complain that the air component didn't plan/resource to cover the entire joint force? My point was that there are a ton of RFFs for PR forces, and everyone (including the joint staff) is happy to have the AF fill them, but we aren't resourced to be the joint community's CSAR assets. When we're filling everyone's requirements, we're not maintaining proficiency at contested CSAR, and we're stuck doing other things when the balloon goes up. Which is what happened in Iraq. Joint doctrine makes it every service/component's responsibility to provide for their own PR needs.

People are confusing fancy new aircraft with airmanship.

When you only pay for partial coverage, but commit to covering everything, then there isn't enough peanut butter to spread around.

The robot recovery vehicle is misguided, putting up throw away air vehicles in the hope that one makes it to the survivor ignores half of the exposure time (egress). This is engi-nerds building toys. There are folks working to build the support for what is really needed for near-peer CSAR, but as tac airlifter said money is always a finite resource.

This is starting to sound like A-10 2.0

I vote for public shaming and rehabilitation. People who are obviously fat should be mocked and made to attend daily organized PT. After un-fucking themselves they then owe two years of PT mocking patrol and helping other fatties get skinny.

Decent used SVs are basically always in the 3000ish range. Do it.

2018 SV650 and a 2002 DRZ400E. You can make anything street legal in Arizona, so I'm building the DRZ into a sort of adventure dirtbike. The roads here are shit, so you do what you have to.

Thread revival! I got back into bikes this winter after a 15 year hiatus. Street bike? Check. Dirt bike? Check. Should have done it years ago, didn't realize how much I've missed it.

He's not particularly conservative. Like much of the internet, too many dumb people just listen to what other dumb people say about topics/people and draw the same conclusion they had from the beginning.

Designated/dedicated is a false dilemma. The DOD has a limited number of certain assets to do certain things, those assets should be placed where they are most needed at any given point in time. Sometimes that would be dedicated to a specific mission, sometimes not. But that would require the GCC to actually sack up and make the call, and the components would have to actually fall in line. And PR doctrine would have to change.... All of those things should happen. Rescue being in AFSOC vs ACC is a red herring.

It's doctrine. Each component is responsible for their own PR requirements.

Sort of. Moseley wanted Rescue back in ACC from the get go. I'm not sure what straw was, but he was looking for a reason the moment he became the Chief. I also haven't heard any actual first hand info about Brown influencing the selection, just heard the rumors.

I would have thought that would be obvious.

Be honest, neither schmucky side is squeeky clean on this. The GOP wants to get the confirmation complete before the next election, so any delay is unacceptable. The Democrats want to drag this out till after the election, so there is no stone too small to turn over.

Given the wild, fear mongering nature of the speculation?

I have an xde in 9mm. It's basically a Glock 19 sized single stack with a hammer. It shoots fine. Holsters were hard to find. I haven't carried it due to the last point, but that's not an issue anymore. If you aren't proficient with a double action gun, either skip it or dedicate the time to be ok with the double action. It actually isn't that hard. The low effort slide thing is just a function of having a heavy hammer spring.