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Clark Griswold

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Posts posted by Clark Griswold

    Russian Ukraine shenanigans

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Clark Griswold
    Just caught the past tense in original comment

    12 hours ago, filthy_liar said:

    Will respectfully disagree times two and you have a lot more perspective on this than I do.  (You're older)  You're not going to get the Japan/South Korea/Taiwan scenerio here.  That's a flaw.  We needed Japan to fall and we need Tawain to remain "independent" of China.  We dont need anything from Ukraine except for them not piss off the Russians enough to disrupt our internet.  Ukraine?  GTFO.  That's the world we're living in.

    Fair enough

    Ukraine is a significant food (wheat) and mineral exporter, largest country in Europe and strategically placed for access to Mid-East / Central Asia so I'll just disagree on their importance but BO should not be an echo chamber so there we go.

    • Upvote 2

    Russian Ukraine shenanigans

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Clark Griswold

    1 hour ago, filthy_liar said:

    Wow.  Didn't expect that from you.  You've been had.  Talk to some Black Sea desk officers and FAOs about Ukraine from about 2000 up until Russia invaded.  Ukraine is one of the most crooked and corrupt nations on earth.  I understand an active duty person flapping the party line, but dude, do you really believe we should put 25K Americans into that cesspool country that exploited America and NATO for everything it could? And do you really think we are putting a dent into the Russian threat?  They have nukes.  Ukraine doesn't matter just like Afghanistan didn't matter in '89.  The Russians still have nukes.  Let them take that corrupt shithole, then they will really be bleeding ruples and blood trying to control it.  You've been had.

    Will respectfully disagree and my position is based not on nativity on the actual nature of the Ukranian government / society but on the successful historical examples of South Korea and Taiwan, both of which were fairly nasty dictatorships we supported and remained engaged with for decades in a slow, positive and ultimately successful transition to modernity and a western influenced, stable, democratic societies.

    I have no illusions about a post bellum Western Ukraine project and the difficulty of it being next door to Russia that would be doing everything just short of kinetic actions to undermine this new nation and I have no doubt that eradicating the scrouge of corruption when so many in the Western political classes are eager to personally profit from it would be exceptionally difficult but IMHO it is part of the long difficult road to eventually incorporating the Orthodox World into the West.

    Russian Ukraine shenanigans

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Clark are you saying that there is a chance that we should've not been in this fiasco with Ukraine in the first place?
     

    No not at all
    I think there is just a point where in the long term it is better for us and the Ukrainians that accepting some of their territory was lost is better than further war and the cost of further fighting.
    Not a fan at all of Russia or Putin.
    Free Ukraine will need large long term aid, I’m cool with that, it’s just that at some point if it can be had, ceasefire and focus on rebuilding.
    I’m also okay with a surprise deployment of 25k US boots on Free Ukraine with no end date to prevent Putin from trying round 2


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    Russian Ukraine shenanigans

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    10 hours ago, pawnman said:

    Just waiting for someone to chime in that Russia is going to overpower Ukraine with a Spring offensive...because the last one went so well for them, before they lost 10,000 pieces of equipment and 100,000 soldiers.

    I hear what you are saying and don't think we should cut off or cut down on the amount of aid now but.... there might be a point where the Ukrainians are willing to fight further using our money, weapons, support, etc... and it may be that we have done enough, they have done enough and just declaring a ceasefire and entering decades of a tense standoff may be the best for us, the whole team and I would include free and on the path to reform Western Ukraine.

    Would this reward Russia?  No, the fact they would still hold some of Ukraine they wrongly seized is just a fact of life which is a four letter word and we have to accept it.  

    This time is not now but I could see it in about 6-12 months, keep the aid and support flowing but behind the scenes begin to think about what and where a Western Ukraine would be acceptable.  If this happens, China and other aggressors will see a greatly diminished Russia, a Western coalition that held firm and likely a price paid for some territory that was not worth it.

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    F-15EX Strike Eagle II

    in Combat Systems Officer (CSO)

    Posted · Edited by Clark Griswold

    19 hours ago, RASH said:

    How in the hell are we already retiring F-22s?

    Sent from my iPad using Baseops Network mobile app

    Very easily unfortunately but there is a logic too it

    Small fleet, expensive support, new hotnesss is the F-35 and money is needed for NGAD, B-21, TPS reports, etc...

    F-15EX with a great radar, AIM-260s and cued by F-35s forward and cloaked relaying targets via datalink and you have a good 5.0/4.5 team

    • Upvote 1

    Finally done in Afghanistan?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

    All This Talk of Chaos, I Just Didn't See It': White House Spokesman Says Administration 'Proud' of Afghanistan Withdrawal. John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, said Thursday that the Biden administration is “proud” of its botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021

    Kirby was seduced by the Dark Side of the Force...

    img.jpg?width=1200&height=800&quality=85

    Thirty Years Ago Today...The Falklands War Started

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If China manages to sail a full CBG and make it east of Indonesia, color me shocked and awed.

    Yup, this Tom Clancy / Dale Brown scenario would have to have some serious gains in operational capability by the PLAN but it would not have to be a CBG necessarily
    I could see them having enough capability to deploy surface combatants, subs, AWACS, land based fighters, tankers, seaplanes (that would interesting for light resupply if the RN subs precluded initial naval resupply), etc…
    Draws a lot of their capabilities to a far flung potential ally but crawl before you walk, if they are serious about power projection a little practice would not hurt
    All that said I’m not for another fight over the Falklands, they are British by history and won in battle but it’s worth speculating on


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    Thirty Years Ago Today...The Falklands War Started

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    So, if Argentina is the attacker... does that trigger NATO Article 5? Because no matter what the parity is between Argentina and the UK, the US would absolutely dominate Argentina. 

    M2 covered the flybys but that makes me wonder about a variation on Falklands 2.0, what if the Chinese decided to intervene?
    Test their equipment, people and tactics by using their own CBG to deter intervention by the US and defeat/intimidate the RN?
    That could detract even from a USN response to a Taiwan incursion as they don’t need CVN based air power there but in supporting Argentina in a Falklands 2.0 they likely draw away 1 USN CBG while their primary objective is being prosecuted
    #redstormrising2


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    Thirty Years Ago Today...The Falklands War Started

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I clicked on the thread because I just completed a reserve points course on the Falklands. 
    I then proceeded to watch about 90" of each of those videos and while I've never been hard up on ALSA comm brevity, these dudes were killing me. 

    Yeah, that’s a debrief item for them ;-) but I found it interesting the idea of a modernized and well equipped Argentinian force with PRC weapons and how well it would do in an invasion scenario
    Single mainly AI driven DCS scenarios I think can give a bit o’ insight into tactical/operational outcomes but it’s the strategic aspects that I doubt any readily available combat simulation software could simulate and hence give a better combat simulation… still I thought a bit more about it from the aggressors perspective after watching those two videos and I think had the Argies had TBM or stand off cruise missile capability to hit the Typhoons in shelters, destroy their runways, EW radars, ships in port, etc… they might fare better. That is if launched from a total strategic surprise with a rapidly mustered invasion force immediately following it. They (Argentina) had and may still have Condor II missiles, an updated version of this would be a real threat methinks for the UK defending the Falklands
    If they chose aggression again, they would have to favor force preservation in the opening fight while trying to eliminate the garrisoned forces there now with stand off fires, then overwhelm the more capable survivors with what they have


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    Thirty Years Ago Today...The Falklands War Started

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

    Haha!  
    Yeah, Argentine fighter tactics are worrying the Drivers at Langley. 
    That said, does this Administration remember that thing called "the Monroe Doctrine"? 

    Doubt they do (the admin) but as to fighters my WAG is the PLAAF is / might be interested in seeing how the Brits react and gathering technical data on NATO systems, tactics, etc...

    No doubt the Chinese produced JF-17s (if the Argies choose to acquire will insist on ones with little Pakistani involvement as Myanmar is less than happy with their JF-17s with serious problems) will be there to gather trons on Typhoon radar, ECM, Meteor missile capes, etc...  

    How applicable to a potential Taiwan scenario is that?  Don't know but the partial analogy to their desire to take an island 90 nm from their coast is there

    • Thanks 1

    Russian Ukraine shenanigans

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Copy all @Lawman @DirkDigglerand I think those are likely causes not the platform per se

    It's a mixed bag of reviews on it, some articles said it did well in Syria (lower threat environment) and then there's the disappointing performance in Ukraine, seems from scanning a few it's a matter of training, tactics and modern sub-systems versus overall concept.

    Not rooting for Russian AF also just to state that clearly as they are the only ones flying it there.  

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