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19 hours ago, Chuck17 said:

It's one of the benefits of the split line competitive category.... Flyers wont be competing with graduated Sq/CC's for O-5 promotions. 

It wont fix everything but it will fix that. 

Chuck

Do we know what what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?  I fear next year's promotion board is going to be a bloodbath in terms of pilot promotions to O-5 given we are unveiling two brand new, mostly untested, systems; split categories and two line PRFs.    

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I dunno but I heard from a friend that only 1 DP was given to a rated guy at Holloman and the other 3-4 to outgoing supoort squadron commanders so the logic makes sense.

Also, did anyone catch the one BTZ without a DP also didn't have IDE! Does that mean there is hope?

Edited by FLEA
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57 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Also, did anyone catch the one BTZ without a DP also didn't have IDE! Does that mean there is hope?

@Shaz... nah

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1 hour ago, FLEA said:

Also, did anyone catch the one BTZ without a DP also didn't have IDE! Does that mean there is hope?

It just means that He or She is currently at an in-residence IDE program right now and the "P" was most likely a "if I had one more DP to give" Super P

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10 minutes ago, Notarobot said:

It just means that He or She is currently at an in-residence IDE program right now and the "P" was most likely a "if I had one more DP to give" Super P

Close -- try a narrative only PRF for an In-Res IDE student with a 1/XXX strat - say from a NAF/CC - that will get you there. (I saw 2x like that with Ps from the student MLR when I was at IDE -- both were great folks)

 

4 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

Do we know what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?   

I bet historical averages is a good place to start - especially given this years results.

 

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

I heard from a friend that only 1 DP was given to a rated guy at Holloman and the other 3-4 to outgoing supoort squadron commanders so the logic makes sense.

This BS is why the Line split has to happen ASAP.

Chuck

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10 hours ago, Right Seat Driver said:

Devil's advocate, not every non-flyer deserves to be promoted. With that being said, when the promotion rates for rated dudes are 6.9% less than the non-flyer's it sends a message to the rated force.

The Air Force is in the business of projecting power and blowing shit up through airpower. I can't speak for promotion rates in the Army, but I am certain my few Army Infantry buddies would have the same complaints if the combat arms branches in the Army promoted at lower rates than the non-combat arms branches.

The difference is that Army officers expect to move up through the battalion, brigade, and division levels. Many pilots want to stay at the “company” level or below and make O-5 and O-6. I don’t think it will ever work out that way. The split line category will get more aircrew promoted, but then they are going to do O-5 “stuff” that they don’t want to do in the first place.

They need to make the aviator bonus scalable depending on rank so that if you get passed over for O-5, your bonus is increased to compensate for the additional pay. Who cares if you don’t make O-5 if you get to stay in the squadron, fly, and make O-5 pay plus the regular bonus? You get paid like a Lt Col to do major’s work.

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17 minutes ago, frog said:

Who cares if you don’t make O-5 if you get to stay in the squadron, fly, and make O-5 pay plus the regular bonus? You get paid like a Lt Col to do major’s work.

Where do I sign up for this scenario??? For sure not in Army Aviation. Its a warrant officer's world.  

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Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

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15 minutes ago, IDALPHA said:

Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

Data point one: took the bonus, not a pilot, got passed over.

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Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 
I'm a nav who took the bonus last year and got picked up this year finally 2APZ. As pointed out above, the PhD program I'm in was probably the deciding factor, but they obviously didn't hold the bonus against me (this was the first board I met since I got the bonus, since it was never available to old guys like me).

Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, frog said:

The difference is that Army officers expect to move up through the battalion, brigade, and division levels. Many pilots want to stay at the “company” level or below and make O-5 and O-6. I don’t think it will ever work out that way. The split line category will get more aircrew promoted, but then they are going to do O-5 “stuff” that they don’t want to do in the first place.

They need to make the aviator bonus scalable depending on rank so that if you get passed over for O-5, your bonus is increased to compensate for the additional pay. Who cares if you don’t make O-5 if you get to stay in the squadron, fly, and make O-5 pay plus the regular bonus? You get paid like a Lt Col to do major’s work.

I've tried to move up to other levels.  I was told I was too critical to PCS to a non-flying job.

I am currently in a wing staff job, but clearly that didn't help.

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8 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

Do we know what what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?  I fear next year's promotion board is going to be a bloodbath in terms of pilot promotions to O-5   

Goldfein: Pilot Shortage, Retention Issues ... - Air Force Magazine Jun 11, 2019 · The Air Force’s pilot shortage has “leveled off.”

I was on board with Goldfein until this.  This hit me like Welsh’s “pretty darn good.”

There may not be a bloodbath, but they’ll keep moving the shells around to keep the hopeful hopeful.  The skeptical will remain skeptical.  Anyone who tried to do what the AF told them to do 2, 4, 6, 8, or 10 years ago will get shafted as the game changes yet again.

It’s like being on a life raft in open water.  You rig up the shirt off your back to make a sail and hope for good winds before you get burned.

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9 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

Do we know what what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?  I fear next year's promotion board is going to be a bloodbath in terms of pilot promotions to O-5 given we are unveiling two brand new, mostly untested, systems; split categories and two line PRFs.    

It depends greatly upon ole' radiator wings being administratively used as leader-in-general/of anything "badge"  and recognized, valued outisde a cockpit, in functional area promotion boards. In short, more Ops functional board quotas than support or other functional areas. In this doesn't happen, how many ops O5s by manning document posirions are needed in squadrons/groups/wings....not many, thus Ops promotion rates will drop.

Support functional areas will have this fairness debate, it's in their interests. This new system could be the rise of 'support'

I wholeheartedly presume A1 hasn't had this conversation in great enough detail.

Case example/food for thought: Pilot put in charge of MX or LRS or other support area, not their functional promotion category...in which promotion pool will they compete? What functional area gets the quota? It'll probably be granted now based upon manning documents for which A1 is responsible. 

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27 minutes ago, Swizzle said:

It depends greatly upon ole' radiator wings being administratively used as leader-in-general/of anything "badge"  and recognized, valued outisde a cockpit, in functional area promotion boards. In short, more Ops functional board quotas than support or other functional areas. In this doesn't happen, how many ops O5s by manning document posirions are needed in squadrons/groups/wings....not many, thus Ops promotion rates will drop.

Support functional areas will have this fairness debate, it's in their interests. This new system could be the rise of 'support'

I wholeheartedly presume A1 hasn't had this conversation in great enough detail.

Case example/food for thought: Pilot put in charge of MX or LRS or other support area, not their functional promotion category...in which promotion pool will they compete? What functional area gets the quota? It'll probably be granted now based upon manning documents for which A1 is responsible. 

 

All call by our 3-star yesterday mentioned that new promotion buckets would not change DP allocation. In other words SR's still get DPs based on total IPZ candidates and not based on "buckets." Furthermore, nothing to stop a SR from giving all the DP's to one bucket. 

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14 hours ago, chili said:

What stats? And how do they show otherwise?

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category).  Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ).  If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%.  Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone.  With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.

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44 minutes ago, soupafly06 said:

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category).  Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ).  If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%.  Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone.  With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.

I do wonder what the rate is for APZ, with a P, but with a filled out PRF vs guys who have given up writing them at 3+ APZ.

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1 hour ago, soupafly06 said:

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category).  Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ).  If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%.  Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone.  With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.

The reason so many guys get passed over ABZ is that their records aren't magically going to be stronger than the IPZ year in which they were originally passed over.  It typically only gets worse 2ABZ and so on.

By and large the dudes who get passed over for O-5 were going to get passed over no matter what year they competed IPZ.  There are definitely a small handful of guys who might have made it one year vs the next, etc but that's not the majority of the guys getting passed over IPZ.  Does it suck for those guys who were on the cusp--most definitely.  But had those guys had gotten picked up then some other guy on the cusp wouldn't have made it and we would be having the same discussion.

If you're coming up on your O-5 IPZ and you've never been in a posistion above a wing then you're automatically at a disadvantage--hopefully you're the master at your trade at that point...but let's face it, there are only a few of those, at least on paper (and he gets the DP at the wing as a pilot).  If you're not an IDE in res type guy, you're more likely to promote if your record looks like you're a pretty decent jack of all trades...and unless you've had a couple killer deployments, squadron job after squadron job with a sprinkle a one or two Group or Wing jobs probably won't cut it.  Duty titles matter on a PRF.

I'm not saying I like the current system (there are pros and cons) but at least for this board, this is how things are generally viewed IMO.

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4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I've tried to move up to other levels.  I was told I was too critical to PCS to a non-flying job.

I am currently in a wing staff job, but clearly that didn't help.

The hard truth why you weren't PCSd to a job outside of the wing is that others were being pushed above you.  I know that sucks to hear, but that's the truth and someone in a leadership posistion didn't have the guts to tell you.  Ten years ago it might have been different and you would have maybe been able to squeak a job into a NAF or DRU (i.e. Safety Center, AFOTEC, etc), but with the rated manning the way it is, only so many non school guys are going to be sent to staff.

As for the Wing job, unfortunately I'm not suprised.  I was a Wing DS and sat on several wing strat meetings with the CV and all the Group CCs (I was the one fighting for the folks in the WSA).  What I learned is that there were two kind of rated guys sent to the wing: One with an above average record who was being sent by the OG to expand their resume (usually a late 2nd assignment senior Capt or brand new Major)...the other kind of person was an average 3rd assignment Major that got brought up to just do a different job.  And when it came to the wing strats, if I fought for a wing rated guy that the OG didn't already have as one of his top 1/3 guys, he would question and fight me why that guy should be strat'd at the wing.  And here I am, an O-5, trying to fight for who I believe deserves it...but ultimately, we're all owned by the OG (yes, even the guys in coded wing safety billets).  Now getting one of the WSA rated guys a decent strat who the OG knew/thought a lot of was easy...then it was just a shell game of why he should be #7 vs #8 out of all the base FGOs.  

After my first round of doing this, I told the Sq CCs to not believethat pushing an average O-4 in the Ops Group for a Wing job is somehow going to magically help them out...rarely it did.

In closing, it sucks you didn't make it.  You come across as intelligent, hard working, and passionate and I imagine you were on the cusp of making it.  As others have said, the board results do not define you as an officer or WSO, and most importantly as a human being.  I wish you the best and if there's any other info I can provide you offline then shoot me a PM.

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I've never sat in on a stratification discussion with O-6s, but it seems to me that there are two kinds of strats.  One kind is for the fast burner who is going to be a Wg/CC or GO someday.  Those come in early and are out of sync with the peer group.  Getting a wing strat as a young Captain for example.  The rest of the strats go to the guys approaching IPZ.  When I was IPZ to O-5 the strats went #1-4 to those of us IPZ who all just happened to be working at the Wing at the time.  My guess is that #5-9 went to a couple younger FGOs who were on track to be DPs IPZ the next year.  All my strats on my record started to appear as I was reaching IPZ for a promotion.  Then they magically disappeared once I made the next rank.  Got to make room for the next round of #1-4s.

Not sure if this is how it works at other Wings.  I was fortunate to meet the IPZ board while working for a stellar Wg/CC who seemed to like me and thought I was doing a good job.  I also recognize that I was lucky to get promoted without school in-res having never worked above the Wing.

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27 minutes ago, Homestar said:

I've never sat in on a stratification discussion with O-6s, but it seems to me that there are two kinds of strats.  One kind is for the fast burner who is going to be a Wg/CC or GO someday.  Those come in early and are out of sync with the peer group.  Getting a wing strat as a young Captain for example.  The rest of the strats go to the guys approaching IPZ.  When I was IPZ to O-5 the strats went #1-4 to those of us IPZ who all just happened to be working at the Wing at the time.  My guess is that #5-9 went to a couple younger FGOs who were on track to be DPs IPZ the next year.  All my strats on my record started to appear as I was reaching IPZ for a promotion.  Then they magically disappeared once I made the next rank.  Got to make room for the next round of #1-4s.

Not sure if this is how it works at other Wings.  I was fortunate to meet the IPZ board while working for a stellar Wg/CC who seemed to like me and thought I was doing a good job.  I also recognize that I was lucky to get promoted without school in-res having never worked above the Wing.

Not how it worked when I had a seat at the table and nor should it work the way you describe.  The #1 Major in the wing when I was the DS was a 2nd year Major (pilot), and he was pretty damn sharp, but was not an IDE select on his board.  The #2 Major was the lead JAG and he was definitely a sharp officer...but also wasn't meeting his IPZ board for a couple years.  I also saw 2nd year Captains getting a wing strat, and it's not because they were being discussed as a future GO.

Only a very small percentage of CGOs will ever be a Wg CC and a much even smaller percentage will be a General.  I'm not saying that senior leaders can't (and don't) highlight these individuals early on, but they only take a few of the top strats.  Most top strats are earned by just above average officers...and a lot of it is luck/timing.  Case in point, the MSG at a UPT base has a much smaller pool of officers compared to the OG, yet the MSG gets a higher/disproportionate amount of wing strats compared to the OG--I've seen this happen with my own eyes.  The problem is that the OG doesn't completely want to piss off the MSG and tell him that more than half of his rated guys are better than the SFS Captain, so they "spread the wealth around" and the slighty above average SFS Captain gets a wing strat and the slighty above average pilot doesn't even get mentioned.  Now all things being equal, which one eventually has a better chance at making O-5?  Bingo...

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5 hours ago, Swizzle said:

Case example/food for thought: Pilot put in charge of MX or LRS or other support area, not their functional promotion category...in which promotion pool will they compete? What functional area gets the quota? It'll probably be granted now based upon manning documents for which A1 is responsible. 

They've already said that you will always compete in your core AFSC.  Doesn't matter if you've spent the last 1-10 years in a non-standard, non-traditional, or out-of-core area.

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4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I do wonder what the rate is for APZ, with a P, but with a filled out PRF vs guys who have given up writing them at 3+ APZ.

I know a B-1 WSO who made O-5 like 4 or 5 APZ.  I know 2-3 B-1 pilots who made it 1 APZ too.  I also know a B-1 WSO who made O-4 7 APZ.

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2 hours ago, Homestar said:

I've never sat in on a stratification discussion with O-6s, but it seems to me that there are two kinds of strats.  One kind is for the fast burner who is going to be a Wg/CC or GO someday.  Those come in early and are out of sync with the peer group.  Getting a wing strat as a young Captain for example.  The rest of the strats go to the guys approaching IPZ.  When I was IPZ to O-5 the strats went #1-4 to those of us IPZ who all just happened to be working at the Wing at the time.  My guess is that #5-9 went to a couple younger FGOs who were on track to be DPs IPZ the next year.  All my strats on my record started to appear as I was reaching IPZ for a promotion.  Then they magically disappeared once I made the next rank.  Got to make room for the next round of #1-4s.

Not sure if this is how it works at other Wings.  I was fortunate to meet the IPZ board while working for a stellar Wg/CC who seemed to like me and thought I was doing a good job.  I also recognize that I was lucky to get promoted without school in-res having never worked above the Wing.

Yes, that’s how it works at most places

there are also some BPZs sprinkles in.  

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9 hours ago, IDALPHA said:

Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

I want to believe there’s some kind of conspiracy that leads to this but I just don’t think it’s true.  Once you’ve been passed over twice you either get the boot or you get offered continuation.  Continuation is purely voluntary and is the ultimate “get out of jail free card.”  All ADSCs are waived though you would have to pay back portions of the bonus.  I would think board members would realize this when making their judgements.

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