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pilot

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pilot last won the day on January 21

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About pilot

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  1. AA just offered early outs for 50/hrs a month pay. Voluntary Permanent LoA, age 62+ paid 50 hours until age 65, retain all benefits and 401k, etc as above, remaining sick deposited into HSA.
  2. Link to news release: https://hub.united.com/2020-03-15-a-message-from-oscar-munoz-and-scott-kirby-2645495847.html
  3. Unbelievable. From UAL:
  4. I hope there are no furloughs or bankruptcies and they use attrition to right size for demand over the next 3-6-9-12 months after this virus/hysteria goes away (hopefully by April/May?). I agree re furloughs being expensive. I also hope they offer early retirements to help shave some off the top. Could be a win win. But with the massive amount of fleet parking the majors are about to be doing, I predict there won’t be any hiring at the majors for a while, which is what my original post is referring to. The AF likely won’t be bleeding pilots for a while and can do a little catching up via production with a lot less attrition. Also, I predict this is a wake up call for guys thinking of bailing altogether and not doing guard/reserve, which may help fill future guard/reserve billets. And I’m sure getting guard/res volunteers for stuff when no fly lines or lower average line values are doled out will be a lot easier.
  5. Did you see Ed Bastian's email today? I’ve seen several airline CEOs now say the decline in bookings and revenue (and therefore planned capacity cuts) is greater than after 9/11, which is generally what I’m referring to. I think we will see more planes parked and larger revenue losses over the next 6-9 months than the 6-9 months following 9/11. Thank God we at least have a bunch of retirements this time, and the proliferation of RJs and age 65 won’t add to the issues that plagued the lost decade. And hopefully the economy snaps back after this passes...but even if it does, there will be lasting damage to the industry that will take a few years to recover (namely sustained lower demand). Anyway, here is most of Ed’s email if you haven’t seen it: “Demand for travel is declining at an accelerated pace daily, driving an unprecedented revenue impact. Cancellations are rising dramatically with net bookings now negative for travel over the next four weeks. To put that in perspective, we’re currently seeing more cancellations than new bookings over the next month. The speed of the demand fall-off is unlike anything we’ve seen – and we’ve seen a lot in our business. We are moving quickly to preserve cash and protect our company. And with revenues dropping, we must be focused on taking costs out of our business. In order to do this, we are taking difficult but determined actions to protect the financial position of the company. These include: An overall capacity reduction in the next few months of 40 percent – the largest capacity reduction in Delta’s history, including 2001. Elimination of flying to continental Europe for the next 30 days, which could be extended. We will maintain service to London. Parking up to 300 aircraft as our reduced capacity requires a substantially smaller fleet. Deferring new aircraft deliveries to manage our reduced capacity and preserve cash. Reducing capital expenditures by at least $2 billion for the year, including delaying aircraft mods, IT initiatives and other opportunities to preserve cash. Immediately offering voluntary short-term, unpaid leaves as well as an immediate hiring freeze. Substantially reducing the use of consultants and contractors. We’ll be making more critical decisions on our response in days to come. The situation is fluid and likely to be getting worse.”
  6. Well, I think the Air Force pilot shortage and attrition problem just got fixed almost overnight. I think it’s going to take a long time for the airlines to recover. I thought the good economy + retirements made this an almost guaranteed good career...more than any other time in history. This virus just caused more damage to the industry than 9/11.
  7. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-afghanistan-plane-crash-passenger-21368981 damn. Initially reported as an Ariana airlines 737-400 turns out to be this. RIP
  8. "The best" fluctuates as contracts change. Also part of what is considered "the best" is where your seniority will be for the duration of your expected career, and in what base/equipment/seat. There is no perfect contract at any airline. A contract governs everything from pay, work rules, profit sharing, sick, vacation, trip construction, medical, insurance, scope, hotels, and just about everything else that can affect your pay/QOL/time off. Regarding seniority, movement is dependent on 2 things: growth and retirements. Only one of those is certain: retirements. Growth can be halted overnight (or be negative if planes are parked overnight if say a 9/11, recession, or fuel price spike happens). Airlines are a for profit company...when planes get parked overnight, pilots are on the street (furloughed). So financial health of a company also matters in that equation, to some degree. Delta has hired around 5k pilots since 2014. A lot of those are younger guys, and you'll never be senior to them if you are getting in now. UA has hired less than that, and AA has hired even less. Also, AA has hired a lot of Envoy flows who waited 15-18 years to flow, and they will age out sooner than many off the street hires. In other words, a lot of their hires have been older than the guys Delta has hired. The result of that is AA has the most retirements over the next 10-15 years, so movement there will be the most rapid. United is close behind them with retirements. Then comes Delta, then the rest (I think FDX, then UPS). SWA/JB/the others all have a lot fewer retirements. This means slower movement...although likely more growth at JB/Spirit/Frontier which kind of makes up for the lack of retirements, assuming the growth isn't interrupted. Also of note, Delta JVs out a lot of their wide body flying, so AA/UA have a lot more own metal wide body flying, thus more widebodies, thus more lucrative WB jobs in both seats, which will affect relative seniority, even on the NB side. A lot of guys will choose WB FO over NB CA. Overall, I'd say Delta's contract is the best, followed by United, then AA. But each has strengths and weaknesses. Delta's profit sharing is insane (16.6% for 2019...extra 2 months of pay). Their sick accrual is also leaps and bounds above everyone else. United has airport reserve (fk that). AA has lots of weak points. But all 3 are in negotiations, and those things are all on the table and could shift. Right now Doug Parker at AA told the pilots they have $150mil to make whatever improvements they want...that's chump change for 15,500 pilots given how far behind their contract is. United has Scott Kirby at the helm hellbent on more/larger RJs. Delta mgmt just filed for mediation, seemingly far apart with DALPA's asks. Right now, the financials of Delta support the most gains (or at least keeping the best contract), followed by UAL, followed by YUGELY debt-ridden AA. Doug says he will pay all that debt down. I'll believe it when I see it...but I doubt he gives AA pilots a contract anywhere near Delta's. But their seniority movement and bases may work better for people who live in say Dallas Charlotte or Miami. All 3 have fairly quick upgrades (albeit in less desirable bases), unheard of seniority movement/hiring/retirements, and are all likely going to trade off who "the best" is over the next 10/20/30 years. None has ever stayed "the best" forever. Southwest and JB have never furloughed, never gone through a bankruptcy, and have always remained profitable, even when the legacies hemorrhaged money, furloughed, went through BK, and all came out of BK with garbage concessionary contracts. The pecking order is this: go to who calls first. If 2 or 3 call, go to whichever one has a domicile you want to live at. If you live in a domicile of another airline you want to work at, keep applying there. Commuting to the airline with the best contract is worse than driving to work under the worst contract. For anyone considering entering the airline industry, or anyone who is in the airline industry and hasn't read it, I urge you to read "Hard Landing." It gives a nice history of the industry, all the players, and how all the airlines came to be. It gives a good history of who the biggest and best airline has been throughout history. In closing, there is a pecking order, but it changes. You won't know where you will end up in that pecking order until you retire. In 20-30 years from now when you retire from the airlines, the landscape will have changed tremendously, as will the pecking order. Best advice: make the best decision for you and your family now, sock money away and live like an FO even when you upgrade, hold on, and enjoy the ride. The only constant in the airlines is change. A lot of the bros getting into the industry in the last 5ish years only know the good times. It will not be good forever. When it isn't good, the pecking order of which airlines are the best tends to change. Delta is printing money right now with unprecedented profitability. But if you got hired there in the early 90s you got furloughed, went through a bankruptcy, lost a pension, took a few pay cuts, and likely never saw the left seat. But if you were hired there 5 years ago, you would be a NB Captain or WB FO today. TL;DR: Best contracts: Delta, United, American Best movement ahead: American, United, Delta Best financial health: Delta, United, American
  9. Don't get me started. They are worse than Jet Blue's pay rates. Of course 1st year pay is the same for all, but year two stays the same as first year pay. Not sure WTF they were thinking. Needless to say, almost everyone 6 months out of INDOC is withheld from something else with a better pay scale. Ironically, some of the highest paid CA's in the company are in the E190. Other than that, I really don't have anything bad to say about the airplane and I have flown with a great bunch of CA's. Living in-base on Reserve on it has been pretty awesome. Hey at least you’re higher than Moxy’s E195 and A220-300 rates. Holy hell. They make AA’s E190 rates look like WB rates in comparison. 112-155 and 128-180, respectively. That’s for the left seat.
  10. video of the missile supposedly
  11. In this particular case, if a need for it is identified, it would be complimentary to existing capes. It fits between existing capes (A-10 and AH-64/MH-60 DAP/AH-6) but doesn't replace them. Where does the money come from? I don't know...but I do know there is some fat that can be trimmed from the defense budget somewhere. It's not like we are an efficient organization. We waste a ton of money...I bet we could pay for 1,000 of those things with one year's worth of DoD fraud, waste, and abuse. And I bet we could have bought a nice fleet of these with the pallets of cash we sent to Iran. But just for shits and giggles I'd say take something away from the Navy because Navy sucks. Maybe don't buy them a new boat or something else expensive coming down the pike. Or if it has to be flying related, take away VTOL 5th gen jets because that is a stupid combination of capes (but give marines some of they navy's jets to make navy feel the burn and not the marines, because they are cool). Most of that is tongue in cheek...the real answer of what would be cut is for people far above the pay grade of anyone posting on here.
  12. I agree with some of this. I flew plenty of stupid missions that just counted toward providing block hours of support, regardless of how effective it was. But at least we were in the AO and could easily be retasked when SHTF. Basically served as flying QRF and looking out for our own targets of opportunity. I wasted many months flying around looking at dirt logging hours. Regarding FW coordination, I don't think it would be quite the disaster you make it out to be. It can be coordinated just like other army/AF/USN FW. The need for RW to be as integrated to the rest of the airspace above 1500' is just not really there. When there are 100+ RW flights a day in an AO, all of which are 1500' and below typically, there isn't a whole lot of coordinating that needs to be done. If there were light attack assets loitering 10k'-20k', they'd have to coordinate block altitudes and be more involved, obviously. That isn't an impossibility just because army RW attack doesn't operate that way now. It's a different animal and would be trained and executed accordingly. And regarding the SOF vs conventional use, again that comes down to the mission/need (if any) that is determined. Do conventional forces need that support? If so, it wouldn't be SOF centric. It got pushed that way because big AF didn't seem to want a big (or any) fleet of those things. Big AF's focus is on 5th gen stuff and a different threat (the next war, near peer, etc) and not iraq/afgh type conflicts. But light attack has been discussed as a potential to be used in a larger more conventional CAS role, not just with SOF. I'm not convinced it is needed (for any missions, SOF missions, or conventional CAS). But I'm also not convinced it's not needed, depending on the current/future conflicts. I'm also not convinced one service would manage it better than the other. There are pros and cons. I'm just making the argument for the army getting it since the AF doesn't seem to want to and has been sitting on the decision for years.
  13. Army space? Granted I don't know what they do, but I have a friend who switched from being an armor officer to army space. Seems more fitting for the Air Force. Perhaps there's something I don't know about it relating to the army though. But frankly, budgets being flat shouldn't be a consideration. It's all about prioritizing needs across the services. Do we need 3 models of the F35? F15X? Bone-R? KC46? other F/B/KC/C/HH/MH etc airframes? SLEPs? Pilot bonuses? Lots of stuff in the Air Force needs or will need replacing. Does the navy need a new carrier(s) or other boats? Army has its own needs...both ground and air related stuff. I think light attack needs to be identified as a need (or not) and prioritized against other acquisition programs before a "what are you willing to give up" debate ensues, and from what budget it comes, and at what cost for other items. That, I don't have answers for, as it isn't as simple as "what are you willing to give up."
  14. I'm sure there's a few details in there you're leaving out, so I can't really respond. Maybe include where you were (on the ground in a firefight?), what kind of unit, what kind of battlespace, what kind of on call medevac that existed in the AO, what kind of air assets existed there/nearr there, what the medevac status in the AO was, etc. would be useful in that kind of discussion. I am highly suspect of a report with no detail accusing an army O-6 of denying use of a casevac/medevac asset with injured/dying troops just because he didn't want to share.
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