All good info above. I think the most important thing you can glean from this forum is the general consensus that controlling your destiny with a guard/reserve spot is preferred over the dynamic nature of AD assignments.
That being said, there’s a gotcha to every good deal in the Air Force, even guard/reserve. For instance, you could get picked up by a Viper unit, discover that military flying is a different kind of challenge and that it’s not clicking as fast as you expected, and you find yourself struggling. Fast forward to the end of phase 3 and your unit no longer has confidence in your ability to pass IFF/B course and they drop you (seen it happen). Or, you get picked up by a fighter unit and they switch to an RPA unit while you’re in UPT. Guess what you’re flying after you graduate... I’m not saying this to deter you, and truthfully nothing anyone on this forum says should discourage you from pursuing what you want.
On the active duty side, my personal opinion is that there’s nothing wrong with wanting to be a fighter pilot to be a fighter pilot. And in fact, once you see how much work they put it that doesn’t involve raging, pulling Gs, and shooting guns, you may realize that the desire to be a fighter pilot for the sake of the achievements alone is almost required to stay motivated enough to put up with endless hours studying threats and counter tactics, getting crushed in debriefs, and having to accept that your best is never good enough. The benefit of the active duty side is that you’ll have the ability to pursue a different lifestyle should you realize that it interests you more. There are a lot of really cool missions in the Air Force that aren’t highlighted well, even in UPT.
But if you want fighters, I wouldn’t worry about “chances” of getting a 38 slot. UPT IPs might back me up on this, but nowadays, if you’re good enough, you’ll get one. If not, it’s not a reflection of you as a person, and your instructors have seen a enough studs come through to know what they’re looking for. You’ll end up generally where you belong. You don’t wanna be the last guy that barely squeaked into 38s.
Best of luck in whatever you pursue. Sounds like your head is in the right place.