gearhog

Ok, brother. Here's the deal. I'm not trying to escalate the debate. I'm genuinely trying to wrap my head around this and open to any helpful information. I listened to the first 45 min of podcast #99 with Attia and Hotez. At around the 15 min mark, I came back here to the forum to see if I had the correct podcast. Not trying to be a dick about this, and perhaps I missed some important information. Maybe I have a confirmation bias. I don't know. You were right, there was a lot of solid, intellectual information in that podcast, but there was absolutely ZERO that could be construed as positive points of optimism. Nothing that indicates we have a grasp on this thing or a workable solution. Here's just a few notes I took from the doctor: 15:15: "Health systems are already stressed and I'm worried we could see a collapse in a couple weeks. I'm very concerned" 16:15: "The first breakdown is starting to happen with doctors and nurses exhausted and there seems to be a breakdown of trust" 17:45:"This is no longer a disease of the old and infirm. This buzz is catching on among young physicians, and it is highly destabilizing, and they're feeling abandoned." 21:20: "I don't have an obvious solution to figuring this out (Regarding physician burn-out)" 28:00: "The most disturbing thing I have seen today s that half the hospitalizations are under 54, and about a 3rd between 20-44, and even some under 19." 32:15: "The Federal Government thinks this pandemic will last 18 months. I'm really doubtful we will have a vaccine in 18 months. I think this will be much longer than 18 months." 41:00 "Unless we can find a way to make our hospitals safe and take care of our health care providers, we are going to be in very deep trouble."

I might listen to it. I might not. But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.

I haven't scoffed at the doctor. I am scoffing at your inability to answer legitimate questions without wholly referencing the thoughts and theories of someone else, and I am able to do it without childish name-calling. Did I not specify that the virus would be impeded when it runs out of people to infect? How exactly is that different from your brilliant discovery of the blatantly obvious fact that it doesn't infect people already exposed. By the way, Herd Immunity isn't exactly a groundbreaking or helpful discovery for those that will cease to exist before it becomes an effectual impediment to the spread. And I'm "sowing panic" by asking questions on an obscure message board for salty old military pilots? Don't you think you're being a little "hypoerbolistic" there, Doc?

If I were entrenched, I'd be making statements. Not asking questions you can't answer. I'm open minded as to how this situation gets rectified, just not interested in banal platitudes like "Don't worry, it'll all get better! Just be positive!" People are dying and will continue to die at an increasing rate until something stops the progress. That's not being sensational, that's a fact. But I get your point. I'm wasting my time. Your doctor's thoughts on the matter are your thoughts on the matter.

C'mon, dude. The word you're looking for to falsely characterize what I am saying is "hyperbolic". I am not painting it as the end of the world. It is an open-ended observation/question. I do not know how this ends. You apparently do. Why aren't you explaining how we arrive at the point where this stops being a problem instead of going on to list all the problems with vaccines (further supporting my question)? I could point to a hundred different internet experts and say "they're really smart, listen to them", but wouldn't you rather hear me explain it? What is the fix? "That's now how it works." How does it work? Cliff notes at the very least. Got home from an airline trip a while back and I've been home sick for about 10 days. Around 3 days of gastrointestinal issues, several days of fever, a "hotness" in my neck and face that wouldn't go away, a slight cough, congestion, etc. I drank water, fixed tractors, tended to the cattle, and aside from taking an occasional nap, I'm fine. I'm not worried about this. No paper bag required. I am worried about my parents and in-laws. Tell me exactly why you have a problem with me asking what the basis is for the unfounded optimism that "this will all blow over and we'll go back to normal." Brick, the previous economy was bullshit and wasn't going to last with or without the virus. I posted about it prior to all this happening. Infinite debt spending is a broken system. The value of currency cannot exceed the value of the production it represents indefinitely. You need to worry less about what the Dow is doing and worry more about what our elected leaders are trying to do to us while we're currently distracted. Don't know what I'm talking about? Go to Forbes.com and search for today's article on "Digital Dollar". I'm not going to tell you what to think about it. Look into it and decide for yourself.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll The charts all show exponential increases in death. China's BS numbers notwithstanding, where is it getting better? (BTW, Chinese cell phone companies show 15 million lost subscribers total over the last 6 weeks.) I'm trying to understand the logic behind "This will all blow over" and "Traffic accidents are worse" and other "whatabouts". Wayne Gretsky said something to the effect of "I don't skate to where the puck is, I skate to where it is going to be." Are people just looking at today's numbers and saying "10x more people were killed by snake bites last year, so this is overblown"? We're just getting started. Before this gets better, the rate of increase in death has to stop being exponential, then it has to stop increasing at a constant rate, then it has to plateau, then it has to decrease, then it has to decline to a level that is acceptable by society. So what is it, exactly, that people are referencing as the reason for any of the aforementioned things to occur? A gut feeling that summertime sunshine will kill all the virus particles? A cure is just around the corner? It only kills old people and they'll be gone soon? Washing hands solves it? It magically disappears as in China? I understand the desire to return to "normal", but the train has switched tracks and "normal" is way back thataway. We're not going back. Either we find a cure or run out of people to infect.

How about 2 months ago?

I probably should have made my sarcasm a little more overt. I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard those comments repeated to me by family, friends, and neighbors. This is the biggest world event in our lifetimes, and the effects of which will be felt or many, many years. Thanks for doing what you do Unit#8192. People like you are about to become the heroes of this year.

It’s just the flu. Last years flu killed way more. When we get warmer weather, this will clear up. The markets will bounce right back. Buy the dip! So many great deals to be had.

I'm going back all in at Dow 10,000.

LOL. Sorry, this is my first global financial collapse, so I find it pretty fascinating. As someone who survived the Great Depression, maybe you could give us young guys a few pointers. I kid, I kid!

Well, we're finally off the cliff and in freefall. Watch the market get shut down today. Remember, all of this was going to happen with or without the virus. The virus only moved up the timeline. Check that link above and compare the numbers today with the numbers on 10 Jan. We're collapsing.

Trump is going to shut it all down this week.

“Too big to fail”

I think the relevance of those issues has been instantly relegated to "No one gives a sh!T anymore" status. Global prosperity had allowed societies to wring their hands over such trivial things compared with what we're now faced with. Social and economic disparity are the issues about to take center stage. What's ahead is going to make Occupy Wall Street look like a stroll through Central Park. Trump just became Bernie Sanders for business. He's going to sprinkle a little money over the voters while opening up the fire hydrants for Wall Street.

Right now, Trump wins in a landslide. However, things are going to change rapidly when the tidal wave of unemployment hits and Trump is forced to bail out banks and corporations while the public gets federal payroll tax relief... if they have a job. Between now and the election, everyone will know someone that either got infected, lost their job, or lost half their life savings. We're in for some dark times. Not many will be saying, "Well, at least it's better than Biden."

I'll throw this out there: Neither one makes it until November.

"United Airlines said Wednesday that it will reduce the number of April flights and suspend hiring and salary increases amid the global coronavirus outbreak that has hurt travel demand. United will cut its international flights scheduled for next month by 20% and those in the U.S. and Canada by 10%. Some wide-body planes will be parked, the company said Wednesday. New hiring will be suspended through “at least” June 30, “except for roles that are critical to our operation,” the airline said. CNBC previously reported that the airline postponed start dates for new pilots, offered some pilots a month off at reduced pay, and warned employees about further flight cuts beyond the reductions in Asia flights it announced last week. The changes are likely to be followed by similar moves at other airlines, which are facing the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis, as the coronavirus sickens more than 90,000 people." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united-cutting-flights-in-april-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html I'm a pax hauler, and although my seniority is likely good enough to see me through tough times, I'm not optimistic. If I were a cargo guy, I'd be far less concerned. Take a look at the Baltic Dry Index. Oceangoing freight transport is experiencing a giant traffic jam that isn't going to be back up to speed anytime soon. Tens of billions in supply chain products are either stacked and overflowing at shipping ports or sitting idle on dry bulk carriers anchored at sea. The only way to get your important shit anytime soon is air freight. Today, IATA is predicting a 10% reduction in passenger numbers for the US and Canada markets and a $23 billion decrease in revenue. https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-05-01/

Started going to AFG in 2002. Was last there in 2018. I visited most, if not all, C-130 capable airfields in the country. In addition to the most important/worst part, the human cost, we watched the bases go from old Soviet buildings, to tents, to B-huts, to shipping containers, to hard billets, and then abandoned. Buckets to port-a-pots, to cadillacs, to proper shitters, then abandoned. The continuous pouring of square miles of concrete at every airfield. Giant bases created in the open desert and then bulldozed. The contractors everywhere. We looked down on the continuous train of supply trucks stretching halfway across the country from Pakistan. Watched the 24/7 arrival of equipment, MRAPs, M-ATVs, earthmovers, construction equipment, trucks for years on end. All used up and now rotting in giant graveyards. Trillions of dollars disposed of in that wasteland. No point, just don't know what to think of it all.

Party's over. Calling it now: Negative Growth in 2020. "It's just the flu."

LOL. Remember the last one?

This needs guns.

Anybody with a retirement plan needs to watch this. 49 minutes well spent. I'll never argue for more retirement contributions that I can't touch until 65 during contract negotiations. I want the bird in the hand... money today directly into my checking account.

I don't think there is a right or wrong. But we have people arguing for both "equality" and "diversity" when, in some cases, they are logically incompatible. If diversity is recognizing the differences in groups of people and putting a positive value on those differences, how do you achieve "equality" when you give "diversity" special status and privileges above everyone else? Choose one. Diversity is feelings, Equality is logic.

Speaking of low flyovers, eyeballs, and middle fingers. LOL.