Negatory

I dunno. I looked at data and it didn’t align with my previous beliefs. When I looked into it more, it seemed like some of those beliefs may be incorrect. So now I’m adjusting my beliefs to fit reality. I still believe some past beliefs were justified. I think there was evidence that the vaccine was effective from a transmission standpoint against non-Delta COVID. And initial evidence of mortality/hospitalization pointed to COVID being worse than it has been recently (1-2% mortality estimates). I am aware that some of those sources could have been biased. But even looking through that lens, I think I still support vaccination in the Dec-Apr timeframe. What really did it for me, though, was when I was talking to one of my buddies. He is very pro vax, in the medical field as a nurse. We have often talked about anti-vax misinformation. I was pointing out some studies that said that herd immunity may be impossible with delta. And his response was not to actually engage with my points. It was to call me a conspiracy theorist idiot. It was absurd. It probably is similar to experiences you guys have had. Maybe even reminded you of experiences you’ve had talking to me on this forum lol. I hope not, because that attitude that you have to comply with the mainstream viewpoint or you are labeled an idiot is absolutely maddening. I don’t know. I will say the Conservative branch of politics usually does themselves a disservice. They don’t usually present reputable studies. They don’t usually present data in a coherent manner. They rely too much on anecdotal evidence. I think they would have a much better time convincing moderates if they would try to craft more intellectual and less emotionally charged arguments. But, again, that’s coming from months of bias, so I’m probably missing something. I am looking at many statistics presented from “liberal” perspectives with much more scrutiny.

I have been thinking about it and the difference is the infectivity or R0. COVID is significantly more infectious, maybe an order of magnitude higher. So from an individual risk perspective, it’s not significantly worse than the flu. But the total number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will be an order of magnitude higher. Still don’t think that justifies mandates necessarily.

I have officially come full circle based on data. I not sure if I still support current vaccination efforts. All of this data I found - wasn’t given to me by a biased news source. 1) COVID spread is unimpeded by vaccination within months. Numerous studies show that: You’ll see that for those age 40-80+, vaccinated folks actually were MORE likely to have the virus. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022238/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_39.pdf Source: UK health surveillance. You can look at last week or the next week as well. This is not cherry picked - the data shows the same numbers multiple weeks in a row. Check out the other weeks, you’ll see similar data. 2nd Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y 2) The rate of hospitalization and death is similar to that of the flu. No shit. And I used to make fun of everyone who said that. COVID hospitalizations: COVID Deaths Source: same as above CDC data on flu hospitalizations/mortality per 100k (couldn’t crop it well on mobile): Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm So for an average person age 18-49, your risk of hospitalization for COVID is somewhere in the realm of 15-20 per 100000. For 2017-18 flu, the hospitalization rate for that age group was nearly twice as high at 36 per 100000. For death of those 18-49, its maybe twice as bad for Covid, around 2 per 100k, whereas flu was only 0.8. I am starting to lose any motivation to continue vaccination efforts whatsoever for those that are not at risk. It doesn’t and won’t provide herd immunity. And people without risk factors that are normal ages don’t need it. The counterpoint will be that it’s for the old. Well, first of all, that counterpoint is already invalid because getting the COVID vaccine as a 40 year old male does literally nothing to protect the old as it has been demonstrated to have virtually no effect on transmission after a few months. So a mandate for those under 50 I think still makes 0 sense. But let’s look at it for those 50+. Hospitalization rate for COVID for those 50+ is on the order of 80-100 per 100000. For 17-18 flu for those over 50 it was on the order of 500+ per 100000. Wtf. For deaths, COVID is on the order of 80 per 100000. Flu was slightly lower, maybe 50 per 100000. But they are way closer than initially thought. BL: COVID actually has turned into nothing more than a bad flu. And a bad flu that is actually easier on children than the actual bad flu. It’s not even a hyperbole. And we’re discussing additional mandatory boosters for healthy folks age 0-30. Just wanted to say that the data has changed my mind, significantly. It’s actually almost maddening.

I agree with most of what you’re saying. I think the actual RC is we create blanket policy that shouldn’t be applied across the US. For example, I would support minimum wage in Arkansas to be closer to $8 an hour, but I would want minimum wage in LA to be $20 an hour. Your point that 10% of 10M is more than 10% of $50k doesn’t resonate with me. The $5k the family now making $45k has to pay will orders of magnitude more affect their ability to have a basic quality of like than the $1M dollars the person now making $9M dollars will have to pay. In fact, that rich dude could be taxed at 50%, make $5M dollars, and still make over 100 times what a blue collar salary is. Would you argue the economy isn’t being “fair” enough to the guy who made $5M dollars? Is it impacting them, really? Your point about distortion I don’t exactly understand where you’re going. I agree rent control and utility control are bad for everyone. Both parties are pumping money into equities to hold up the facade. The only real solution is a more tightly controlled economy that favors the worker - a la 1950-1980. My overarching position is that progressive taxes are good for society. As I’ve said, there is scant evidence trickle down economics improves the average American’s life. On a side note, extremely happy about the global tax that will disincentive American companies from basing in islands or Ireland. I do wonder what type of propaganda is being thrown right now to convince the average conservative voter that tax shelters and loopholes are good for them.

Your point is that easily acquired, skilled blue collar labor jobs exist. I disagree with your overarching point that there are an abundance of these opportunities. It’s not as easy as existing to actually just get into one of these pipelines. I used to think this myself until I had personal family try to make it happen. My brother tried for years to get into the electrician mafia in our hometown - turns out it’s more about who you know than anything else. Also, most of these jobs are at will contracting with totally unreliable hours, no insurance, no benefits, and significant stress on your body. Hopefully your friends are running their businesses differently. My additional counterpoint to this is one example that highlights a million others. You almost assuredly partake in restaurants, right? Therefore, you want those jobs to exist. Therefore, you want people working in the restaurant industry. I assume you know there is absolutely no way that the restaurant industry can staff from just high schoolers. Also, that shouldn’t be the expectation. High schoolers should be doing school if you want to compete with China. But the dissonance in your logic is that while you simultaneously believe the restaurant industry exists and therefore should employ people on an ongoing basis, you believe that almost none of these jobs should be permanent. Why? Why should someone who provides you with a service you agree on and enjoy under market conditions not be paid long term a living wage? It’s because these jobs have been relegated to second tier sorts of positions. Even though it’s something you would pay for regularly. Now, we’d all say, “well restaurant workers/retail workers/etc can work on themselves in their time off.” Throw a kid, a needy parent, a health problem, or a multitude of other unfortunate situations into the mix, and it quickly becomes a gigantic uphill battle for people’s economic lives to improve. This is the cycle of suffering. And I’ve seen it in my own siblings. My position is that the level of economic prosperity that existed in 1950s-1990s America is no longer possible for anyone but the rich. No longer can you pay for your child and better yourself. No longer can you purchase a house on a union job. No longer can you support your family on one salary. But the rich are getting richer faster than ever before. This is trickle down economics - take from the poor and give to the rich. Oh, and don’t forget to have the middle class sneer when the poor want their dark blue line to follow their light blue one.

Is this how you cop out when someone points out fallacious arguments or mistruths in almost every one of your points? I mean, this is the mentality you have to have to make O-6 in the Air Force, so let’s not say I’m surprised. And I’ll just remind you that you’re the one who created an itemized list of reasons why I shouldn’t be glad we have Biden over Trump, and then you got offended when I provided any support of that list. Projection is a cruel thing, buddy. Address the points or agree to disagree.

Inflation and "stimulus packages" were bought in the previous year before Biden took over. We went from 4 to 7T dollars of Fed Reserve spending in less than 6 months. But yes, this is the democrats fault. Yes I believe that the unemployment incentives in blue states were a mistake. At the same time, I 100% empathize with the undeniable fact that there is literally no way to live any sort of a life under a 40 hour a week $15 an hour job. But that's where we differ, likely. The republican mantra is that these people should suffer until their life is better. I do not believe that bullshit. You're biased to propaganda over the last 30 years - the specific propaganda basically boils down to "greed is good" - and I honestly know I'm not getting to you. The point is that if you make $10M-$1B a year, in most cases it's not through income - it's through capital gains and profiting off of labor. And if you think that the stock market is a "fair" system, especially with how it has gone up during the pandemic, you're delusional. People who benefit extremely from the designed inefficiencies should be reasonably expected to pay more. This is not a new thought. In fact, Republicans backed bills pre and post WWII to raise marginal income tax rates to 77-92% for the top earners. This is not a 2012 thing, this is actually a history thing. Love of the rich - from people like you - is something that is new in history. The ironic thing is that Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are paying total effective tax rates closer to 0% because all of their net worth is tied up in the stock market as unrealized gains. And your facts about income inequality are pretty out of touch. Yeah, you've proven my point. The top 1% pays more tax and makes way more than everyone else. Cool. They should. Let me put it to you another way. Your big-brain example about how everyone should be paying the same taxes as it would be better and more fair (school teachers and high net worth individuals): Do you currently support raising taxes on school teachers by about double? Simple question. The flaw in the system is that you don't have to contribute to the system at all once you have a certain nest egg. You just sit and reap the benefits off the work of everyone else by throwing it in the stock market. You will say there is risk, but let's be real. The Fed will just pump $7-11T in to protect your rich ass or bail you out. As I have stated numerous times on this forum, I support vaccine mandates that stop transmission and sickness. For the alpha variant, this was likely the case, so I supported the mandate. With Delta, science is showing it is significantly less effective, so I may have a different opinion. I have never supported CRT, and there is not a single credible example of someone going to rationally discuss CRT that was placed on an FBI wish list. I am not going to address the blatant fallacies in your secondary example, but if you want to have a more rational discussion about it, I encourage you to rewrite. #1 - is months of saying you're going to leave no notice? #2 - Trump actually committed to what almost everyone calls an unconditional withdrawal in 2020. Get your facts straight #3 - Afghanistan is not our ally #4 - Yes, the Trump administration did negotiate with the Taliban to create an unconditional withdrawal. https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-middle-east-taliban-doha-e6f48507848aef2ee849154604aa11be #5 - Yeah, I'm mad about this. But did we leave Americans that were trying to get out behind? Or is this political grandstanding to the extreme? And I'm not looking for a onesie-twosie example. We got the overwhelming majority of Americans out. #6 - You can't talk out of both sides of your mouth and say that you like Trumps anti-NATO isolationist policies and then get mad when we do something they don't like. Also, how did we screw NATO? I know you were just trying to make a list, but I don't think this one should have made it. #7 - Oh give me a break from your bias: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/british-parliament-condemns-trump-but-remains-split-over-banning-him/ https://www.thedailybeast.com/fascist-evil-racist-uk-parliament-unloads-on-trumps-twitter-outburst #8 - You're cherrypicking again. Like anyone in the DoD is actually mad about this. We've already argued about this. You think it was worth the Trillions of US dollars to be in Afghanistan. I think it was worth anything to get out. Afghanistan's fall is primarily on Afghani's is my opinion. And, I know deep down, that's most peoples opinion. Or maybe we can blame the effectiveness of military FAOs, Commanders, and trainers over the last 20 years, I guess. We had to leave. This is greenwashing bullshit. You want to know something? We could have gone entirely almost zero carbon emissions 30 years ago. Oh, how? Nuclear fission energy. We have the capability right now. Literally right now. You thinking that Fusion would change this dynamic is whataboutism to the extreme. Also, an overwhelming amount of Chinese emissions exist to produce American consumed goods. Look it up. Barreling towards the collapse of the world to maintain your American lifestyle just because you don't want other countries to have a slightly better standard will be a good way to reflect on the collapse of modern society in the late 2000's. Appreciate the specific responses that were based on facts and pure opinions.

I fail to see you’re point. Democrats, like Republicans, support imperialism, military spending, and capitalism, with significantly less progressive reform than most of even the tame European countries. Hell, most democrats in Washington still virtue signal their religious affiliations for popular support in 2021.

Want to remind you guys that this is not something that has been like this. In fact, there are multiple studies showing that for the alpha variant this was not and is not the case - it more effectively prevented transmission in the original strains. Lets not pretend like this was expected or some conspiracy. Delta changed things, and now we must update our expectations and game plan. This is actually how science works.

That’s ironic because I’ve heard the exact opposite argument stating that both parties are essentially different flavors of classical conservatives.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y Nature preprint of a large study showing that transmission approaches nearly unvaccinated levels just 3 months post vax.

I guess there is still evidence that vaccines reduce the rate of hospitalization and death, so that would be the argument.

Delta made vaccines obsolete. Very disheartening.

Go with sources on false positive rates.

Maybe underreport is not the precise language I’m trying to use. They are one of the slowest to report, so their graph has looked like we are on a downtrend for weeks. Turns out is just because they are extremely delayed compared to almost every other state.

Cases are coming down naturally. But Florida in particular is such a bad example because they criminally underreport in comparison to most other places. For reference, they have only claimed 2 deaths for yesterday, which is guaranteed to be off by an order of magnitude my friend. And your examples of other countries don’t affect the data that show that, in the USA, we are pretty damn close to peak deaths in the delta surge right now.

It’s a lagging indicator that Florida has been particularly bad at. No surprise that conservative media skews this data, intentionally. I encourage you to check this yourself.

I think you’re misreading this one; I used to believe the same. That study doesn’t compare vaccinated infection rates to infection rates of those who recovered from COVID. It looks only at people who recovered from COVID: it compares people who recovered from COVID in 2020 and were unvaxed to people who recovered from COVID in 2020 and were vaxed. It showed that vaccines help even those who had the disease already. But it doesn’t show what you said. There are actual cited studies on here that show that natural immunity is potentially more effective against the virus than pure vaccination. I think somewhere it was like 5-10x as effective as vaccination, actually, for a time period. It has been posted here. Now there are other factors we can discuss, such as almost a third of Covid infections not resulting in effective antibodies, or natural immunity fading significantly faster than vaccination, but let’s be specific. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-1042_article https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947a2.htm

Base rate fallacy.

Let’s dispel the notion that I’m not accountable for my choices. First, I responded to you. And let me double down. When I say I voted against Trump, I mean it. Hell, I maybe even would have voted for Hillary Clinton over Trump. And that comes from someone who voted for McCain what feels like hundreds of years ago. @VMFA187Here’s a few points. Yes, developing coal plants at this point in human history is not just bad, it’s a travesty. It’s short sighted idiocy to get rural voters. Cool. Yeah, I don’t agree with either spending plan. Youre being threatened with a dishonorable discharge because you wouldn’t get a simple vaccine. You’ll see that we don’t agree on this point. I think you should have gotten it. Let’s define net worth as above $50M, like most wealth taxes proposed. If you think that $50M is too low, I guess I just think you’re delusional. Also, your stupid whataboutism with an old poor elderly couple that couldn’t get any of their 7.5M in equity out of their home is ridiculous, and it wouldn’t be a factor in the majority of proposals that entirely discount primary residences. To cap it off, you end with a predictable slippery slope fallacy. You know that’s not the point or an even remotely likely scenario. Something something lick the boot? The 10 year plan started with passing the largest infrastructure and research bill since WWII. It includes provisions on expected changes to combat climate change. As stated, I don’t believe Biden is that great. But I do believe Trump’s worse. We’ll agree to disagree.

I get what you’re saying, and it’s all true. But the scientific reasoning i’m arguing that makes vaccine and mask mandates significantly less palatable to me, now, is that everything changed with delta. The virus won, unless we commit to another few years of this. Even if the vaccine stopped 50-75% of transmission and masking stopped 30-50% more and society was 75-90% vaccinated, the virus would still spread. That’s because it has an estimated R0 of 5-9. You can’t get it below 1. You can see it now, in actual data. We are at phenomenally high levels of infection even with high masking and vaccination rates. I’m starting to believe reports that herd immunity is a myth with Delta - literally impossible: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-with-the-covid-delta-variant-experts-say.html https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2 Even with 99% of society vaccinated, we would see the virus spread and cause cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Will there be less than if only 60% is vaccinated? Sure. But at what cost? To make the remaining 20-30% of society get vaccines against their stubborn wills would require, likely, an overreach of government power. All to still have a virus that exists, mutates, spreads, and continues to cause sickness. Also, I want to understand your data on how many people can’t get vaccinated for medical reasons. I keep hearing it’s “plenty,” but I’ve never seen any numbers to back that up. Those numbers matter, because if it’s 500k people or 50M people changes the calculus. Masking, social distancing, and getting vaccines may seem like a minor inconvenience, but there is a limit to cost benefit societally. Every day that cost increases. At some point, yes, it stops being worthwhile for 300M people to have to change their lives and social interactions to protect a very small subset of society. Unfortunately, I think we’re pretty damn close, honestly. I did my part, societally, and got vaccinated and social distanced. I wear a mask. But I’m about over it. That’s where I’m at.

I buy that masks work. They don’t work 100%, which is the critic’s easiest fallacious black and white argument against them. In fact, evidence suggests an efficacy rate between 20-50%. Sounds bad, but still does something. My issue at this point is how long do we do this? Forever? Forget it. If we had some hope of a vaccine that reduced transmission, I think there would be something to hold out for. But, from what I see, we are setting ourselves into indefinite purgatory. Give the at risk populations the chance to be vaccinated and resume life. Yeah, tons of idiots will die. But it’s their choice. You and I won’t die from the virus, at this point. I really struggle to see the cost benefit in favor of any more control/restrictions.

I know that this is intentional bait, but I’ll respond. Almost everyone on this forum didn’t vote for Biden, per say. They voted against Trump. I bet many would do it again. I think that’s the crux of the issue. In almost no ways do I think we’d be in a better spot as a nation with Trump at the reigns. I agree with your assessment of many of this admin’s errors. It sucks. But do I think it’d be better with Trump? Fuck no. The Trump admin did more to dismantle the credibility of our democracy and give credence to blatant conspiracy theorists and bigots than anyone in recent history. I can think of very few Trump policies domestically, internationally, economically, or militarily that I really wish Biden would implement. Is the economy worse now? No, but it’s not better. We’re fucked and have been ever since Obama era Fed reserves pumped $4T into the stock market. Trumps economic policies pumped $3T in in 12 months. Turns out blue and red are both idiots here who will play fiscal conservative when it’s convenient but still do the same thing. Is the military worse now? It’s good we actually left Afghanistan. How we did it was stupid, but it took some balls to just pull the cord and leave. Withdrawals are messy. But we are going to benefit from that, I think. I have no idea if Trump would have followed through. Are we going to modernize to be relevant on the world stage? No, doubt it. Probably would do better with Trump here, but we could have an argument on whether or not it’s even possible. Tell me if you think a war in the Taiwan straits is actually winnable from not just a military perspective, but a geopolitical one. Are we doing better with COVID? Maybe. Current admin definitely has a more coherent messaging schema and plan. I do believe that vaccines were created and pushed more under Biden than they would have been under Trump, which contributed to higher rates. Delta would have hit regardless, and I’m sure Trump would have been peddling pseudo science, still. Sucks the vaccine doesn’t work nearly as well as we hoped, not really a clear path forward here. From an economic inequality perspective, I have an admin that isn’t literally run by a sociopathic billionaire. The fact that they are talking about finding ways to close loopholes that allow the mega rich to have a lower effective tax rate than a teacher is the right answer. If that involves taxing unrealized gains above a certain threshold, then do it. I wholly believe that Reagan era economic principles of just giving rich people all the money, which is what Trump selfishly pushed, are part of the moral decline of our country that basically started right after the Reagan admin. Are we socially better off? This is the big win. But it’s all only temporary. Putting hateful folks in their place by showing them more than half the country disagree has been nice. I know you guys largely don’t fall into that group, but the idiots that were empowered during the Trump admin to say racist, authoritarian bullshit really helped the unraveling of America. Our our allegiances across the world in a better spot? Yeah, I think so. Public perception of America has shifted an order of magnitude in our favor. And I believe we will not be a superpower by our own choosing, as we were between 1990-2020, anymore. We live and die based on our alliances and diplomacy as China expands. Is the future brighter? I mean, maybe more so than the Trump admin, but the future is pretty god damn dim. Global warming, climate refugees, and water wars are actually going to be catastrophic events in the next century. The Trump admin chose to actively dismantle any efforts to think about that, so that we could compete with China. Not an effective strategy. I appreciate having a 10-20 year plan on how to tackle a problem, as opposed to the Trump admins easy button of “well deal with that later, we have to use coal to beat China,” when we’ll never actually “beat” China. Moral of the story is from a I-voted-against-Trump standpoint I’m happy he’s not there in basically all areas other than military modernization. I would not say I’m happy I got Biden. But it’s the lesser of two evils in this dumbass iteration of a democratic republic that is really just a nicely wrapped 2 party system. Implement ranked choice voting and expand past the biggest issue with our country: 2 party politics. I don’t want Biden. I don’t want Trump. I don’t think anyone is “happy.”

I think it’s largely a conspiracy theory with little proof. The citations, especially towards the end, are not legit. With that being said, it seems ever more plausible to me that this could absolutely be a lab leak. Let’s look into it, I’m down. I don’t buy the claims that Americans specifically collaborated to do this. Never attribute to malice what you can attribute to stupidity. On an unrelated note, my opinions on vaccine mandates for the current releases, at least, have shifted relatively strongly recently. What’s the point? Even if we literally vaccinate 90% of Americans, we’ll still have tons of breakthrough infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. And it won’t stop mutations. The rest of the world will pop out the omicron variant from the Nile river or something. The vaccine only limits spread by maybe 50-75%, which isn’t enough at all. R0 will still be higher than many seasonal flus with full vaccines. Herd immunity is a dead dream. What is the end state of a mostly vaccinated society? I am not prepared to go full retard and become Australia.

I respect your opinion. I obviously disagree, but that’s fine.