brabus
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Posts posted by brabus
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2 hours ago, Snuggie said:
There is no real safe way to eat in a restaurant indoors:
There hasn’t been your entire life, if we’re defining unsafe as risk of catching respiratory viruses in a public setting exists. The flu, pneumonia, etc. didn’t make people not want to eat out, yet here we are pretending 12% positive rate and 99.86% survival rates (US under 70) are Ebola reincarnated. For comparison, last year the positive test rate for the flu was 52% and death rate was ~ .02% for under 70. So quite literally, the risk to your average, healthy person under 70 is .12% higher than the flu. Clearly risk goes exponentially up or down to age groups above and below the 70 line.
People spent 2018 cool with a 52% chance of catching a virus followed by a 99.98% survival rate, yet are incredibly concerned in 2020 over a 12% chance of catching a different virus followed by a 99.86% survival rate. I get it this doesn’t encompass specific scenarios like elderly family with health issues, the individuals with compromised immune systems, healthcare workers in close proximity to high risk patients, etc. But, it does encapsulate the vast majority of our demographics.
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3 hours ago, SocialD said:
Oh man, you should see all the felating of the General that is going on in that thread. Sir sandwiches and kool-aid chugging of his every word.
You can tell who’s in the guard and who’s on AD by the responses. One side doesn’t give a shit, and the other is worried about getting their next assignment changed to Laughlin if they dare speak against the man. Funny and sad at the same time.
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Impressive, ridiculously dangerous? I don’t know, but those dudes have some balls, I’ll give them that. Now I’ve seen everything...
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8 hours ago, Prozac said:
I wonder if the polio vaccine would’ve been successful if the internet existed back then. 🤦♂️
Polio had a yearly average 11.5% death rate pre-vaccine. From the time Salk created the first version of the vaccine, 5 years elapsed of study, tests, and clinical trials, before there was a nationwide drive for inoculation.
Recap: Polio was significantly more deadly and 5 years of clinical testing/data prior to mass release. Apples and oranges.
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30 minutes ago, pawnman said:
"Rammed through with no testing"...what do you think is in the vaccine? Do you think they've crafted some kind of wild, unique additives never before used in a vaccine just for this one?
I didn’t say no testing, I said no longterm data. I’m not an anti-vaxxer, have had just about every vaccine under the sun (thanks 3rd world shitholes). Putting something man made into your body that may have currently unknown side affects just because of something you have nearly no chance of dying from...well, it’s pretty logical to take the known 99.99% chance over the unknown. You do you, no judgement from me. Just saying the numbers support the decision to not get it as a rational one.
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5 hours ago, pawnman said:
I'm surprised that all the people saying "the virus isn't a big deal" and "99% of people who get it survive" are reluctant to get a vaccine.
Why is that surprising? Get an injection of something that was rammed through testing with no longterm data vs. a 1.8% chance of getting covid, and if losing those odds, have a 99.99% of recovery (numbers derived from my state specifically for anyone under 70). Seems fairly logical for anybody who doesn’t have other health concerns (diabetes, etc.) and don’t have any other circumstances, like immune-compromised family member, healthcare worker, etc. to skip it. At least until there is some long term data.
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Wow. Out of curiosity, if his fake degree wasn’t “in the system,” how did he commission in the first place, let alone make it to Capt (assuming)?
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7 hours ago, Snuggie said:
I've done an informal survey of my coworkers and maybe 50% are willing to get the first round of vaccines
Same here, among co workers and neighbors. I’m honestly surprised that high of a percentage is willing to get it.
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We had BE at at Eglin all the time...it was awesome. Could call the AC on his cell and work out whatever we wanted for the next day, rest of the week, etc. No bullshit, Bobs, etc. to get in the way of the mission.
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10 hours ago, Homestar said:
, but that is not relevant to the failed leadership the USA has demonstrated on the issue in our own country.
I get your point, but it is relevant when people throw out stats like this as supporting points for their argument that our response was subpar. Totally in agreement we’ve had, and continue to see, horrific leadership failures. A large portion of them being at the state level (governors).
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1 hour ago, Homestar said:
,American resistance to pandemic countermeasures is the reason we have 5% of the world’s population but 25% of the world’s COVID cases.
It’s not that simple. Reasons (not exhaustive) -
We are far more globally connected than many countries, leading to far more exposure (e.g. No shit Afghanistan’s rates are lower)
- Were the 3rd largest country in the world (a 1/4 the size of China)...but China only has 86k cases...yeah OK. They alone have likely massively skewed the global data, which is a nice segue for...
- It is an invalid assumption that all countries are transparent and truthful of their cases, deaths, hospitalization rates. You think China, Russia, Iran, etc. are all open kimono on their numbers?
- We test more than any other country, so obviously our numbers will have the appearance of being drastically higher compared to all the countries that test at a much lower rate than us. What would our share be if every country had conducted tests equaling 50% of their population?
This is all not to say we’ve perfectly crushed it, but to say that specific talking point is very misleading when used to generalize America’s response vs. outcome regarding COVID.
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Most responses are way out of line, illogical, and many probably illegal. This is 90% emotional/political and 10% about actual public health. Social distancing, mask when you meet the definition of close contact, and improved hygiene (or really what you should have always been doing) is acceptable at this current point. Everything else, especially with the data on hand, is utter bullshit. That’s my somewhat succinct viewpoint.
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24 minutes ago, Tulsa said:
I used to use the ILS/LOC to confirm initial in low vis but VFR conditions, especially in ROK.
If you haven’t flown TACAN initial at the Kun after flying “VMC” at Pilsung, you haven’t lived.
12 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:When did USAF fighter/attack quit flying night overheads?
I did them in UPT and the only times after that were in combat, how’s that for some irony.
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The discussion on dominion is pretty alarming, but for now it’s just talk. I’ll care when there’s actually evidence presented to back this talk. However, I do believe it should be looked at.
I’m with Tree - how is it we have failed to tighten the system up to the point no side can use it as a reason to sow distrust in the voter ranks? This should be easy, and I do not understand why people are against some of the easy ways to accomplish this.
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The funny thing is it’s 2020 and the navy and AF still can’t even agree on which J-series message to use for some things. Hopefully MESH pans out for the DOD sooner rather than later.
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12 hours ago, Negatory said:
This is an easy elephant in the room problem. Make a Mil-STD that will actually work for 50 years from now and allows for growth. Make it include all of the services from submarines to satellites. Then make a joint SPO to manage the US military’s data links. Force everyone to comply to the underlying structure. Stop developing platform specific solutions.
Will never happen because DT/OT/acq is so platform/service specific that we shoot ourselves in the foot.
The F-35 and its JPO is a textbook example of why this is a horrible idea. It seems good on paper, but it doesn’t work in execution. I can’t wait for the day when the JPO burns to the ground, we tell everyone else to fuck off, and have an AF SPO. The next step is the AF buys the code and we don’t have to rely on Lockheed. I’ll never see it, but I hope the guys in the future do.
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Last I knew the reserves at Nellis do have TR aggressor pilots. Another option to explore is Draken, ATAC, etc. Guys I know who do that seem fairly happy with it; no AF bullshit to really deal with (but doesn’t help if you’re trying to get an AF retirement).
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7 minutes ago, slackline said:
I feel like true independents are the only ones looking around wondering what’s happening on both sides.
I think you can replace “true independents” with “80% of the country” and still be accurate. The last several elections have been 10% hardcore base on either side and everyone in the middle doing their best to pick the lesser of two evils while wondering why there are so many lunatics on the fringes. Guarantee there are tens of millions of voters who are not pumped about the candidate they voted for, but see them as a better option than the other guy for varying reasons.
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Didn’t intend to come off that way; simply answering your question on who I think we can sell raptors to. I’m inferring that you are against it, is that correct?
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7 hours ago, Negatory said:
Kind of begs the question because it seems like you're all on board: what technologies are worth keeping domestic due to the security risk? Would you sell F-22's to Russia if they would pay to open the production line? How bout somewhere like Turkey? Would you sell other technologies just because they would pay for a portion of them?
This isn't as black and white as you guys are making it seem.
Israel yes, Russia/Turkey no. Basically most of the F-35 countries would be fine for an F-22. It’s very dependent on the country and how their goals/foreign policy aligns with ours. I think you know that though, or at least I hope you do.
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So Israel is going to foot some/all of a $10B bill to restart production? Suspect...but I’m all for them/LM doing this and the USAF piggybacking on it. I’m also not holding my breath.
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On the campaign trail -
“In 2010 at Kunsan...”
”I’m going to stop you right there; I’m out, good luck to the other candidates”
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I think the unwillingness to talk, even within “private” settings (phone call, face to face, etc.), is a negative byproduct of the safety empire. We immediately debrief every sortie and freely share lessons learned, but as soon as something bad happens, there is no debrief/lessons learned for anyone outside the immediate circle for months on end. Guys with direct knowledge of a mishap should be able to provide any initial info/lessons learned to bros around the community...maybe not on a public Internet forum, but certainly privately (including phone and email).
Example: The Holloman strafe mishap that killed the contractor. I was a couple days from my guys flying CAS with hot guns, none of whom had flown CAS in the last year or so. I sought privately any debrief/LL info, as I wanted to pass those initial LL onto the guys; I was concerned about our low proficiency on the heels of a fatal mishap that occurred doing exactly what we were about to do. What I got was zero info, in the name of “safety process.” Cool, because of our safety overlords, we were denied any lessons learned, and pressed on. Turns out we got into a very similar situation a week later, except the pilot had enough experience to recognize it and avoid any problems. We literally almost repeated exactly the same mistake a week later, completely ignorant of what happened at Holloman and any initial lessons learned we could have applied to our own flying. That is a massive foul.
Same exact thing happened recently with the two F-35 landing mishaps. Separated by a week, no initial info/thoughts passed to the F-35 CAF. Hill repeats similar conditions as Eglin. Only after that does an SII come out about landing. Could have easily killed a pilot a week later; all we had to do was pass initial thoughts debrief-style and Hill may not have happened. I flew probably 20 times after the mishaps before I knew what was going on...20 times I could have fucked up/ignorance is bliss. That’s bullshit.
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COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)
in General Discussion
Posted
Last year 62% got the flu vaccine with an effectiveness rate of 29%. The 10 year average is 57.3% getting it and 42.4% effectiveness. So, even with a flu vaccine and 62% of the population getting it last year, it was still only .12% less deadly than covid with zero vaccine for the under 70 population. What does that say?
Lots of future speculation, so I can speculate as accurately that if you show me one person with longterm can’t-workout problems, I’ll show you substantially more who got over it in a week or less and are fine (or were so unaffected they didn’t even know they had it). Both groups exist, but let’s not pretend we actually have statistically relevant data to make claims there are meaningful probabilities of long term effects in substantial numbers. I believe it is completely possible that could become an accurate statement in the future, but for now it’s almost purely speculation based on statistically irrelevant numbers, outliers, etc.