Everything posted by Smokin
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Russian Ukraine shenanigans
But you know what is an act of war? Bombing NATO countries: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-plot-us-planes-incendiary-devices-de3b8c0a?mod=hp_lead_pos1 Basically, Russia put two bombs in cargo shipments headed to the US. Luckily they went off while in storage in Germany. Imagine if those shipments got contracted out and put on US passenger planes. Potential to kill hundreds of American civilians and the US government would have no choice but to take some pretty significant actions. Could have easily started WWIII.
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The Next President is...
Was just going off of real clear politics website, maybe my math was off. You are correct that it is the new House, however you missed the part about each state gets a single vote. "But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;" (12th Amendment). I don't care how close the House is, when California (normally 54 electoral votes) gets entirely canceled out by Wyoming (normally 3 electoral votes), zero chance the Dems win. Edit to add: They can't delay past March or the VP becomes the President and clearly the Republicans wouldn't delay to effectively choose her.
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The Next President is...
Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement. If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y. Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on. Current polls are interesting. RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251. That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC. If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV. If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269. Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide. If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that. He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020. Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.
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Russian Ukraine shenanigans
Russia has lost twice as many casualties as the US did in WWI. It looks like Ukraine has casualty rates at about 60% of Russia's if US estimates are accurate. If Russia keeps at it, a year from now they will have more losses than the US did during WWII. There are some interesting parallels to WWI: -Initial estimates were a war that would last weeks, not years -Russia (and everyone else) overestimated Russia's offensive power -Everyone else underestimated Ukraine's defense -Battlefield has become relatively stable without considerable advances by either side and thousands are dying for yards of ground
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October surprise
arg, I'm disappointed in your lack of judgement. It was inconsiderate of you not to precede your post with a trigger warning.
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The Next President is...
I don't think I've heard anyone on here, or anywhere else for that matter, saying that Trump is a 'good person'. I would never invite him into my home, but that's true of almost all politicians. He's had multiple wives and apparently cheated on all of them. He's clearly an egomaniac. But an idiot? I realize he inherited a bunch of money, but you still don't get to where he is by being an idiot. Any claim that he's an idiot is not grounded in reality. I can't think of a President in US history that is/was an idiot. Harris on the other hand is clearly a 'shitty person' AND an idiot. Any time she's asked a tough question she does that stupid hackle and then proceeds to string together a sentence that is less coherent than the crackhead on the corner in LA. If you think she got to where she is today by any qualities than her genitalia and melanin, I'd like to try whatever you're smoking. She was offered a job with the DA before she passed the bar, which is absurdly unusual and clearly was paved by a patron, which has continued throughout her life. After she failed the bar, the job offer was not pulled. The majority of lawyers (including every single of dozens of lawyers I know) pass the bar on the first try, which means she dumber than the average lawyer. Average is shockingly dumb, so since she is below average than it is reasonable to think that she is in fact an idiot. The problem is we have very limited choices. 99% of politicians give the other 1% a bad name. We are stuck with voting for the person that advocates the polices that are closest to what we want. Trump's policies are not what I would like to see, but they are better than Harris'.
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The Next President is...
A named source that is making a personal financial profit from making claims like this. A guy that served on Trump's staff but didn't resign in protest despite apparently thinking that Trump is a fascist. Real trustworthy source. I'd trust something that guy says slightly less than a rumor my first grader brings home from the playground.
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World War III Updates
Didn't Israel say they wouldn't hit Iranian oil? My bet is they hit something in the logistics train that decreases their ability to sell oil, but not hit refineries and such themselves. Maybe shipyards, docks, etc.
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Gun Talk
Ruger American is a great rifle series. I own a few of them. Recently dropped the trigger pull on my primary hunting rifle to around 3 lbs and it was a 5 minute process (including spending a couple minutes finding the proper allen wrench). That rifle is plenty accurate for anything other than crazy long range hunting (600+ yards). The other great thing about them is since they are so similar across various calibers, I don't think you have to constantly practice with your hunting rifle shooting $3/round ammo. My .223 and even .17HMR Ruger American are so similar that I do all my off season practice shooting cheap rounds and feel right at home picking up my hunting rifle and hitting the woods.
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Military Move Claims
Totally agree that you need to tell them to take their offer and shove it. They will almost always throw out a low ball offer and tell you it's the final offer and take it or leave it. It's just their way of buying you off for pennies on the dollar. Legal will get you way more and there's a chance the dirtbag company gets banned, especially if you have some pictures and can prove they lied. Obviously a bit late for you now, but some advice for others: Take pictures and/or videos of everything even remotely valuable in the couple days before the movers show up. Also, go through their pick-up inventory with a fine tooth comb before you sign. They're going to try to rush you as they want to leave and you're going to be ready for them to leave as well, but it's your stuff that they probably are going to break. Before a move overseas, we bought some new furniture a week before the move. The movers marked up the brand new furniture on the inventory to make it look like we had picked it up off the curb. I told the movers they could open up the crate, unload it, and show me the damage (it was one of the first things they loaded) or I wouldn't sign it. Obviously they refused to do that, so I crossed out almost all of their condition annotations and wrote "brand new". We got everything we claimed on that move. Finally, I know not everyone is inclined to do a DITY, but I had such bad experiences on my last two TMO moves that I didn't even consider using them again. In 5 full DITYs, I've broken less things total than TMO movers broke in a single move. The rules also recently changed so you get more money. I made over two months pay on my final DITY. It was some serious work and some stress, but everything that I care about arrived in the same condition as we left.
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Russian Ukraine shenanigans
With both JHMCS and 9X, I'd imagine they do. As a bonus, the pilots that survive the war will have life-long neck pain to look forward to...
- Harassment of Civil Traffic
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Harassment of Civil Traffic
You would do it the same way the F-16 EGI works with an in-flight align. For an airliner, once you're out of the jamming, you do an in-flight align and the INUs takes the input data from the user and GPS. You input the heading and maintain straight an level flight for a few minutes while the GPS talks to the INUs. It is very possible as there are platforms that have this capability, but the airlines/FAA haven't seen it as a big enough problem to force the capability (i.e. spend the money for it).
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B-1s dodging SAMs?
B-1 doing SEAD/DEAD "so the rest of the missions could go safely," a bomber dodging a SAM, and the pilot hearing the missile? Sounds like that story might be pushing the 10% rule.
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AFSOC SMA killed by police in home
While I understand what you're getting at, any murder charge would almost certainly result in a not guilty verdict. If this were the AFT airport manager case then I would agree, but manslaughter seems appropriate here.
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The Next President is...
Maybe, but it might also be intentional for him to talk more about abortion. Many actual conservatives in the Republican party are lukewarm on Trump since he isn't conservative. So if Vance keeps talking about the things those conservatives want to hear then they're more likely to show up and vote on election day.
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The Next President is...
We'll see. Dems are only excited about Harris because she's not Biden. It'll be interesting to see if that lasts or if they'll remember that she was one of the first primary candidates to drop out 4 years ago because she was polling in the low single digits. DEI politics could come back to bite the Dems. Had Biden chosen just about any of the other primary candidates for a VP back then, I'd bet that person would be up 10 points in the polls and would cruise through the election. On the flip side, had the Republicans nominated just about any other candidate, that person would be up 10 points over Harris.
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Money and Finance
Why would those with mortgages be starting to sweat? If someone has bought a house since the rates went up then the market dropping should cut consumer spending and help with inflation, so rates should drop. The only reason I see starting to sweat during a market drop is if I need money in the near future that I have invested or if I'm concerned about my job.
- The Iran thread
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The Next President is...
I think we too often underestimate how much to consider what people say about themselves and what they believe. For example, when Hamas says they want to 'kill every Jew in the world' we would do well to take that seriously. However, there are also people that need to basically be watched on mute because they are either playing to a target audience, just like constantly being the center of attention, or riling up the other side to get a desired reaction. Trump is in this second group. Ignore what he says and pay attention to what he does.
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WTF? (**NSFW**)
A slightly scary but potentially good use of that would be an Amber Alert. Suddenly every recent model year car on the road is looking for that license plate, kidnappers wouldn't get very far. If you are in public, you have to assume you're on camera these days. Even on your own property, there is limited privacy as police can legally sit somewhere else with a telephoto lens or fly a drone over your property. Will be really interesting to see when a drone case gets to the Supreme Court.
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WTF? (**NSFW**)
Edit to add: the real military equivalent is a WG/CC writing an illegal sup to a reg that violates Constitutional rights of airman. Someone has paper to hide behind and enforce it, but that doesn't make it legal/right. Takes some balls to stand up to him, but it should be done. I agree that politicians are ultimately to blame. They pass laws that are blatantly unconstitutional and face zero repercussions. Like in the case of the California gun laws I mentioned, courts should start holding politicians in contempt for violating the law. Or I'd love to see someone arrested under an unconstitutional law sue the sponsor lawmaker personally. Not the state or city, but the person that was responsible. Might get politicians to think twice about passing bad laws.
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WTF? (**NSFW**)
They may have just been doing what they were told to do. But that's no excuse. If your commander gives you a direct order that you know is illegal, you have both a moral and legal obligation to not follow that order. You also took an oath of office (as the police did or should) to support and defend the Constitution. A single one hour continuing ed class on the Constitution should have told them that what they were doing was illegal. If they didn't know better than it is due to willful ignorance. We are rapidly turning into a police state and the better part of a dozen cops busting a weed store (don't legalize them in the first place) is just another example. If they really wanted to clean up the city, then go do it. Start with the violent crime. There are cities in third world countries safer than NYC.
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The new airline thread
I have and if I just did a fairly standard schedule, I'd be home about 30hrs more on the WB. Obviously that is just a standard line and ignores the scheduling games I could play to get out of flying that standard line in the NB that I wouldn't have the seniority to play in the WB.
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The Next President is...
I'm not sure what is scarier, the fact that her primary (only?) qualification is the person she sleeps with or the fact that you might be right.