Lord Ratner
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Everything posted by Lord Ratner
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Isolating the causal link isn't enough if you completely destroy the correlation by using a more granular scale. The theory of human-caused global warming is based on a whopping 50-100 years of industrialized activity and the associated rise in CO2 as a result. Any historical use of temperature and CO2 activity (even when ignoring the near impossibility of estimating a "global" temperature from times before precision and satellite instrumentation) needs to compare short-term shifts measured in years and decades, not centuries and millennia. Climate change is much closer to economics than it is to science. It's almost entirely retrospective with no ability to effectively isolate the multivariate problem down to individual, testable components. And like economics, the theories and models are often unable to predict the future, making them invalid. The rabbit hole to go down is the actual temperature datasets. The Manhattan Contrarian has a great series in this where the arbitrary yet consistently one-sided adjustments to the data sets are shown to be loose at best. Those datasets are the foundation for nearly all climate research. Bad foundation, bad house.
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Exactly. The only people who are certain of this movement are the people with no direct connection to the science. It's just another team position to be certain about because the other team disagrees.
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Charts can be funny like that. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-history-a-look-at-multiple-timescales-in-the-context-of-the-shakun-et-al-paper/ Even if I knew nothing about the theory, models, or underlying data, the overwhelming and religious-like commitment to the cause by a whole bunch of politicians, actors, other non-scientists is enough to make me skeptical. But I do know more, and dang near every time a supporter of the theory posts a chart, there's something the chart is misrepresenting.
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For decades the government pushed the notion that, to be healthy and slim, we needed to avoid fat and intake carbs. Decades and an entire epidemic of obesity before we are finally starting, only now, to realize how wrong they were. Clean air ≠ Carbon dioxide reduction. The science of climate change, and all the incredibly complex measurements, studies, and theories about the effects, boils down to a single theory. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas of small impact, but it increases the major greenhouse gas (water vapor) such that we are seeing and will continue to see a temperature runaway directly caused by humans increasing the CO2. There is all sorts of research showing that the Earth is warming. Granted a lot of that research is not nearly as concrete as the narrative would have you believe. Take a look at the satellite data and compare it to the theory. Digging into the various generations of temperature records and seeing how lopsided the adjustments are is another eye-opening chore. But even if you take the historical temperature data, as presented by the proponents of the theory at face value, the most critical component, that mankind has caused it, is dependent entirely on a theory of carbon dioxide that is not supported by the long-range historical data (ice ages during periods of much higher CO2), and is almost impossible to test on any sort of scale that would prove it one way or the other. And on this shaky ground, the United States is supposed to reduce its carbon footprint in a manner that would utterly devastate our economy, and only have a single digit percent impact on the overall change in temperature. So even if you accept the temperature data at face value, and you accept the theory of carbon dioxide as an impactful greenhouse gas at face value, you also have to accept that the rest of the world, including the largest polluter (China), is going to follow our lead in a manner that will have an actual meaningful impact on the rate of warming. That's a terrible bet, and the billions and trillions of dollars that we put towards this endeavor are much better spent on protecting forests, cleaning the plastic island out of the ocean, reducing known pollutants from being put into the atmosphere (like the smog plague of the 70s), defending endangered species, or any other number of measurable and worthwhile environmental endeavors. That's the short version.
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Biden did what he needed to, not seem sick or weak. His answers were ok, but he didn't say anything that I thought had a good punch. But it's hard to notably punch the guy that everyone else spends all day punching. Trump needed to back off, save the "classic Trump" stuff for later. Came out of the gate way too fast. But he has no crowd, and that's his happy place. It seems like his best line of attack was the Hunter Biden stuff, but he flubbed when Joe brought up his dead kid. Should have praised then pivot, instead he just pivoted. Not sure what his plan was for the taxes fight. Either just lie it all away, or what he meant to say was "I pay millions in taxes through my business, not personal income, that's just how it works." But he didn't get that across. His climate answers were good-not-great, but firmly good. Medical was all over, but Republicans have been dropping the ball on Obamacare replacement for years. Better answer: I'm not going to bankrupt the American economy on unproven technology and theories when we can spend the money meaningfully protecting our rivers, forests, and oceans from pollution. He did get Joe to fumble a bit with the green new deal. The pandemic stuff was weak. He could have slaughtered Joe by pointing out the sheer stupidity of blaming him for the number of deaths, and keep going back to January, but instead he just kept saying how couldn't handle it. Weak. The hunter biden stuff seems to shake Joe the most, so I bet there will be more of it. You can tell Trump doesn't do well in a dynamic debate. There were some softballs he missed completely because he's so stuck on what he expected to be asked. Two examples were condemning white supremacists and committing to an orderly transition. Those are "Yes, but..." questions, and he turned them into just "but..." questions. He could have scored home runs on both of those. I don't think the first debate moved the needle.
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If that's accurate, it explains why Obama never stepped into the controversy. I hope it's not accurate
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There's a factual story I don't hear many on the left talking about. It's the story of how the top of the FBI literally conspired against an incoming president because they didn't like him. The stuff coming out of the Durham investigation is pretty appalling. I can't stand Donald Trump, but I'll support him 10 times out of ten if the opposition feels like using the might of the federal police to destroy someone against law, procedure, and the evidence is now an acceptable practice.
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I thought the China comment was pretty obviously a joke, and a hilarious one at that. And whether you like it or not, calling the younger pilots/people "kids" in aggregate is common. I do it. Calling someone "kid" in an interaction is demeaning. Even contextually, your comment clearly meant it as a pejorative.
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No. There's no chance he's remotely as rich as he portrays, nor is he the businessman he claims to be. He is, I'll confess, a brilliant marketer. But I knew that going into it. The best and most concise explanation I've ever read came from the Atlantic: It’s a familiar split. When he makes claims like this, the press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. Liberals spend so much time agonizing over how Trump has the conservatives fooled. He's not fooling anyone. Like brabus said, it's team sports now, and Trump is wearing the right jersey. You think conservatives are downplaying his insanity? You're right. They are. Liberals are currently downplaying the rising Marxist movement in their party. But his insanity is just a collection of character flaws, whereas marxism is a societal death sentence. I wish we could simultaneously denounce sociopathic character flaws and socialistic tendencies at the same time in the same political party. But you play the cards you're dealt.
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Exactly. I don't like Donald Trump, I think he's the worst type of person. I think he lacks any sort of moral foundation, he certainly doesn't care about the issues, and he's addicted to the drug of power. But the only, and I mean only difference between him and the rest of the politicians who have lived in Washington for decades is that he lacks the veneer. His shell is completely transparent, and that's why the most established characters on both sides of the aisle hate him. None of his policies are new, so it can't be that. He simply exposes to the rest of the country how completely depraved the whole enterprise is. He's the first president who outwardly looks the way Washington inwardly acts. He campaigned on draining the swamp, and so the voters sent a swamp monster to clear it out. But many of the voters never truly understood what the swamp looked like until now. He's the portrait of Dorian Gray, except instead of one aristocrat, it's the entire political class.
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You're referring to the text that you got caught plagiarizing? You literally accused the conservatives here of not thinking for themselves in a post you stole from someone else... It's not that your post can't be responded to effectively, it's that no one is interested in responding to you personally. It seems like that's a bit upsetting to you, but it's well earned.
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I did, and like all studies, there are weaknesses. So much of this boils down to "systemic." POC *are* more of a threat. This is an inescapable statistic fact in 2020. Racist answer: black people are genetically prone to violence Systemic racism: The punishment for carrying a weapon is 5 to 10 years if you're white, 10 to 20 if you're black. Racist judge: sentences white people to fewer years in prison for the same crime as black people Racist cop: gives black people tickets for all speeding infractions, gives white people a warning Three of the four exist. The second does not in 2020 America. There's a very real and critical conversation to have about why people of color are a bigger threat. And it has nothing to do with the amount of pigment in someone's skin. Putting 18-year-olds in prison for decades because they committed a crime that anyone of us would have committed had we grown up in a broken home, in a shitty neighborhood, with no schooling, and no opportunities is insane. The modern disincentives towards a two-parent household, which is affecting all races, but black families at an alarmingly higher rate, is another problem we need to address. Conservatives have no interest in acknowledging the disparities that exist today, and that fixing them will require a tremendous allocation of resources. Liberals have no interest in a solution that doesn't involve racism as the primary driver and focus. So neither side is going to get anything done. Racism started this whole mess. Actually, slavery started this whole mess, it just happened to be black people that were the slaves in America. The racism part has been solved systemically. Making up for the after-effects of that racist system (and the good-intentioned policies that have made things worse) is the problem we face today. But the people who are around today, who are not racists and who are not responsible for the racist systems that caused these problems, are not going to be a part of the solution if that solution mandates labeling them as racist by association. And calling the system racist *is* akin to calling the people involved with the system racists. Because what decent person would be involved in a system that is so blatantly racist?
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https://www.pnas.org/content/116/32/15877 Maybe spend more than two minutes next time. Nice chart though. Read up on the hazards of trend lines. Also interesting that you skimmed over the whole part about rates of violent crime by race. Statistics matter.
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If you reach into your pocket when you were told not to, you can be shot. No weapon. It has happened and the officers walked. I get it. Dangerous job. But I don't think it's unreasonable to expect police officers to adhere to some of the same standards that military members must follow, and in some cases you have to get shot at first before you get to shoot back. many of these situations don't take into account the proportion of officers to assailants. In a one-to-one situation like Michael Brown, and officer absolutely should use deadly force to protect themselves. But what if there were 3 officers? Six officers? Ten officers? at a certain point bodily harm is part of the job, that's what makes it noble. Responding with deadly force is not always the right answer to someone posing a physical risk. And to be clear, I don't blame the officers and many of these cases. Like I said the problem is with policing philosophy in general, not those who are taught it.
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Comparing the rates of use of force and police violence to the raw population composition is a statistical mistake. Compare it to the rates of violent crime perpetuated by each of the various races, and you get a much more realistic look at why this is happening. The racist narrative falls apart especially when you look at the race of the police conducting these interactions. Minority police have a higher representation in use of violence against minorities than white police. All of this to say, we absolutely do not have a systemic problem with racism in policing interactions. What we do have is a problem with policing philosophy in the United States, the use of force, and an officer's right to self defense before a threat has materialized. But as long as we insist on including racism as a component, and in fact a dominant component of the conversation, we will get nowhere.
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Space missiles. Nothing nuclear, but enough punch and accuracy to take out a power substation. Build about a million of them. I suppose some sort of long range cruise missile can do it too. Build a million of those. Then take out anything that generates power within 100 miles of their major cities.
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1. The numbers of single, childless, and in many cases white young adults participating in the riots indicates more that just hopelessness. Given a green light to destroy, many will. 2. Which leaders? Many of the thought leaders on the left, cited and lauded by media and political figures, are doing no such pleading. And I'm not sure a single (D) politician has condemned Antifa. How many Republicans have condemned the white supremacists? (All of them, including Trump, who is awful). 3. When you define racism as "far right" it becomes hard to find racist leftists. If you include "the soft bigotry of low expectations," as Sowell describes, the left is overwhelmingly racist. It doesn't help that we are redefining racism to fit a progressive narrative. Couple all this with the fact that the data completely disproves the narrative of systemic police racism targeting and killing black people, and the whole thing becomes impossible to resolve. You can not, under any circumstances, have a productive discourse if the facts are treated like lies, or worse, if presenting the facts makes you racist. Unfortunately, the public figures of "your side" are not engaging honestly in the debate, as you are.
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Kavanaugh really did change things. I wasn't around for Bork or Thomas. The Kavanaugh hearings were the first time I could see an actual difference between the parties in terms of morality. And it was stark. Honestly I don't even like using the term "Democrats" anymore, because it does not draw a distinction between voters who are registered with or consider themselves a part of the Democratic party, and the politicians in the party at the federal level. The voters I have no beef with, just a disagreement on the best way to accomplish largely the same goals. The politicians however, I believe to be in many cases irredeemable.
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So dorky, but Crenshaw might be the savior of the party, so why not?
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No, there's just evidence. And the evidence reflects strongly on our system.
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And where exactly are the philosophical "facts" in your post? What higher truth says that votes for federal office should be based on equal voter weight? We. Do. Not. Live. In. A. Democracy. We live in a republic, which is specifically designed to give you, the voter, some control over the life you live, through choosing the state you live in. You would instead doom us to 50 identical states as the concept of pure democracy eventually takes everything over, which is why those silly 20-something year olds were against it. You like how California is doing things? Move there. Want big guns? Go to Texas. Healthcare? Massachusetts. The logical extension of your argument is for a world government with worldwide pure democratic voting. Why is a nation the level by which one vote equals one vote, as opposed to the state within a nation? Inconsistent. And in all of this, let's not forget that our system has vastly outperformed the competition in virtually every metric. For all the talk of systemic racism and oppression, there is no country on Earth with significant minority populations where it is better to be a minority. This "experiment" is doing pretty well.
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The contradictions re: slavery were well understood and agonized over by some of the founders. Our "system" did not enable slavery, it existed long before and worldwide. You couldn't flip the table overnight, still can't, so the system was set up, and the language chosen carefully, to sow the seeds for the eventual demise of slavery. And it worked. The rest of your post is just hysteria.
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Yup. Human nature isn't so easily changed. https://fortune.com/2020/09/14/jpmorgan-work-from-home-wfh-worker-productivity/
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I've had to explain to a few wives that they weren't choosing between living close to their family and not living close. They were choosing between whether their kids got to see dad or the grandparents more. Obviously a simplification, but most do not realize that it's *a lot* more than just the hubby having to leave earlier in the morning to catch their commuter flight.
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I wish it wasn't so simple. But it is.
