You can almost set your watch by the personnel PIO, it used to be every 5 years (ish) the AF would be at the top or bottom of the cycle, everyone get out or please everyone stay in, the only thing I have noticed different than when I came in back in the late 90's is that the frequency is now about every 3 years... the PIO that AFPC and A1 induce just gets worse as they keep moving the stick from full aft to full forward while simultaneously going idle to military, the stick being RIF boards and the throttles being the bonuses or lack thereof... they use personnel tools with opposite effects one right after each other making the frequency shorter and the amplitude higher
If you could have an hour to explain the concept of control and performance to A1, that might help but as most of them (that I have met) have no operational experience, have been in personnel all of their carriers and think it is just a spreadsheet to be manipulated at will, you will continue to get arbitrary / clueless / no real strategy just reaction to the problem du jour force structure decisions or God forbid, A3 asserts itself and we structure the AF around ops
Get that long term orders check book out and call the Guard / Reserves, if you offered 3+ years of orders or back on AD to get that last 5 years or whatever they need to get in the check of the month club, you would get takers... if this CSAF wants to fix one problem (of many) before the new guy (or gal) takes the controls then focus on this ant and burn it up
Did some bar napkin math and I bet you could get 3500 bodies (even split of O's and E's) for 3 years with all costs included (including PCS, TDY and training) for 3 years for about $1.5 billion, less if you expand at RPA Guard / Reserve bases, that kicks the can down the road but shit take a step in the right direction, spend the money, get rid of a problem hemorrhaging our credibility to manage this mission
The easy part is figuring whose ricebowl to steal from... not