China, Russia Conduct Military Exercises

[Guest flecth033]

China, Russia Conduct Military Exercises

By BURT HERMAN

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (AP) - Russia and China launched their first-ever joint military exercises Thursday on a Chinese peninsula jutting into the Yellow Sea - an eight-day event that symbolizes the two countries' bolstered ties since the end of the Cold War.

Moscow and Beijing will stage a mock intervention to stabilize an imaginary country riven by ethnic strife. But they insisted the ``Peace Mission 2005'' exercises - which started Thursday and include some 10,000 troops from land, sea and air forces - were not aimed at a third country.

``Our exercises don't threaten any country,'' Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, the head of the Russian armed forces general staff, said Thursday at Russia's Pacific Fleet command, standing alongside Gen. Liang Guanglie, chief of the general staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

The generals said the exercises were a result of the warming ties between the countries, with Liang calling them ``a great historic event in our relations.'' However, Baluyevsky denied it meant Beijing and Moscow planned to set up a military union.

The exercises culminate next week with an amphibious and paratroop landing on China's Shandong peninsula in the Yellow Sea.

Analysts agree Russia and China are unlikely to team up against a common foe. They say the maneuvers are more of an exhibition of Russian arms - including its long-range strategic bombers, which can carry nuclear weapons - in the hope of luring Chinese buyers.

The U.S. Defense Department said last month that China's military was increasingly seeking to modernize and could become a threat in the Asia-Pacific region as it looked to spread its influence.

The Russian military is also eager to show it still has muscle despite much-publicized woes. Its weaknesses were highlighted again earlier this month when Russia had to call for outside help to rescue seven men stranded in a mini-submarine off its Pacific coast.

The exercises come amid warming ties between the countries since the end of the Cold War, driven by mutual concerns about the United States' dominance in world affairs and a shared interest in combating extremism in Central Asia.

The two are the dominant countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes four former Soviet republics in Central Asia and added Iran, India and Pakistan this year as observers. Representatives from the organization's countries have been invited to watch the exercises.

At a July summit, the organization called on Washington to set a date for the withdrawal from Central Asia, where its forces have been deployed since after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to help support operations in neighboring Afghanistan.

The United States had said it would withdraw from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan once combat operations in Afghanistan were finished. Last month, however, Uzbekistan ordered U.S. troops to leave the country within 180 days.

Kyrgyzstan's new administration called for a re-evaluation of the U.S. base in that country, but Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld later won assurances that American troops can stay for as long as they are needed to bring stability to Afghanistan.

The United States said it has been advised of the exercises by both China and Russia, but isn't sending observers.

``We expect that whatever activities take place would be ones that would further what we believe is everybody's shared goal of stability and peace in the region,'' State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in Washington.

Despite Russia and China's shared interest in Central Asia, Beijing's main focus for now lies on Taiwan, which China lays claims to and has threatened to invade if the island declares formal independence.

Russian news reports said Beijing had pushed to have the exercises staged closer to Taiwan - making it appear to be a possible rehearsal for an invasion.

Analysts have noted the involvement of Russia's Tu-95 strategic bombers and Tu-22M long-range bombers in the exercises - warplanes that can carry conventional or nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and are not usually part of peacekeeping operations. But the aircraft are expected to top China's shopping list both to deter U.S. assistance to Taiwan in the event of a conflict and project Chinese strength across the region.

During the drills, the Tu-95s will conduct demonstration flights in the area while the Tu-22Ms will test-fire missiles at ground targets, the deputy chief of Russia's Land Forces in charge of the exercise, Col. Gen. Vladimir Moltenskoi, said last week.

Baluyevsky said in a newspaper interview last week the aircraft were taking part because the exercises are being staged far from Russian bases and would help enforce a simulated aerial blockade. But Russia's air force chief said earlier this year that the bombers would be involved in the exercises to tempt Chinese buyers.

``These weapons that China is buying are clearly designed for a possible standoff over Taiwan,'' said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent defense analyst based in Moscow.

The purchase of such strategic items in the past has been prevented by the Russian military, which must approve all sales to outside countries, he said.

``Having such exercises demonstrates the closeness of the two militaries. That's important if China wants to buy these weapons systems,'' he said. ``This is a political military exercise, much more political than military.''

Beyond the sales pitch, it seems highly unlikely Russia would ever join China in a fight over Taiwan, said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor for military journal Jane's Defense Weekly. ``There are no indications of coming together to form a strategic alliance of Moscow and Beijing,'' he said.

However, the exercises demonstrate a shift in the Chinese military's policy from its typical inward focus, Karniol said.

``They've come to increasingly accept multilateral solutions and accepted the understanding that there are things to learn from exercising with other countries,'' he said.

[ 18. August 2005, 13:08: Message edited by: flyguy ]

[VL-16]

never rule out the "highly unlikely".....

[Shakermaker]

Ya.. I read this today in my local paper... kinda makes you wonder huh?

[Guest ericvano]

Sounds like typical balance of power muscle flexing... and marketing.

"...analysts say the exercises are mainly an excuse for Russia to showcase aircraft to its biggest military hardware client..."

"It's an attempt to remind the US that a different truth exists which can also be enforced by military might," said Ivan Safranchuk of the Centre for Defence Information."

I can't really see China and Russia joining forces for anything other than a show against the US just to remind us they are still there. Too much vested interest economically and otherwise.

But hey, always gotta be on your toes.

good article in the Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,7369,1552199,00.html