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Showing results for tags 'China'.
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Decade forecast from Stratfor, sounds plausible, world somewhat FUBAR somewhat functional. https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025 Here's the Jack Ryan part: It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia's failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. It has no defense against these market forces. Given the organization of the federation, with revenue flowing to Moscow before being distributed directly or via regional governments, the flow of resources will also vary dramatically. This will lead to a repeat of the Soviet Union's experience in the 1980s and Russia's in the 1990s, in which Moscow's ability to support the national infrastructure declined. In this case, it will cause regions to fend for themselves by forming informal and formal autonomous entities. The economic ties binding the Russian periphery to Moscow will fray Historically, the Russians solved such problems via the secret police — the KGB and its successor, the Federal Security Services (FSB). But just as in the 1980s, the secret police will not be able to contain the centrifugal forces pulling regions away from Moscow this decade. In this case, the FSB's power is weakened by its leadership's involvement in the national economy. As the economy falters, so does the FSB's strength. Without the FSB inspiring genuine terror, the fragmentation of the Russian Federation will not be preventable. ... This will create the greatest crisis of the next decade. Russia is the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the hinterlands. The decline of Moscow's power will open the question of who controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed. This will be a major test for the United States. Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process. How the hell do you secure 4000+ nukes in Russia as its coming apart? -
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Wondering if we will see more of this with the rise of "Grey Zone" warfare: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/world/americas/colombia-airline-flights-venezuela.html?_r=0 There was no specific mention of a loss of separation but it was enough to get a "sharp diversion". China seems to be practicing this also: https://www.lawfareblog.com/chinas-harassment-civilian-ships-and-aircraft-south-china-sea-reminds-us-why-we-need-more-us-freedom This article and referenced speech imply they make no distinction or even attempt at distinguishing between civil and military traffic for interception or harassment. Could ICAO as a governing body respond? Suspension or some or all certifications or reciprocity of certifications?
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Read a good article in the Atlantic and wanted to see what the opinion of others was on the idea that we are actually close to another major conflict between the new Great Powers via alliances and waxing / waning influence. Yes, It Could Happen Again Instability in Ukraine, chaos in Syria, conflict in the East China Sea—the trigger points for World War III are in place.
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Haven't seen this posted here yet - here's the article in the WSJ. And the Chinese media posting photos of the great leader. Reminds me of the Iranian state media posting the Onion article on Ahmadinejads vs Obamas popularity. Good stuff... although this is my all time favorite Onion article.
