56.7% and 56.1% in 2022 and 2021, respectively, in the zone. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/08/03/over-500-airmen-promoted-to-colonel-as-open-slots-stagnate/
Someone might drastically increase their chances by doing SDE in-correspondence, but even with that, those numbers are more than fogging a mirror.
I don’t plan on doing SDE in-correspondence. The jobs I’m being asked to do and the people I’m being asked to lead at this stage, and my family, deserve better. I’m not going to divide my time further.
But I’m also not going to take a dump on the people doing it and getting promoted. I’ve not once been able to say this life is easy, and if they want more of it and can, or are willing to do what the system is asking of them, good on them.