nsplayr
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Posts posted by nsplayr
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2 hours ago, Zero said:
Re-sharing these gems:
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10 hours ago, FourFans said:
Do ICBMs count as drones?
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/13/iran-israel-drone-missile-attack/
If we need to launch a "massive drone attack" against IRGC-affilated bad dudes in response, I volunteer to take flight lead. I know a ton of good dudes & dudettes who can fill out the strike package 🇺🇸
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22 minutes ago, FourFans said:
There are a few absolutely excellent players in the Biden Cabinet.
Agree on Sullivan and I like Blinken as well. Yellen is excellent at Treasury, she never should have been replaced at the Fed, although Powell is also good...their policies & philosophy seem very similar. Haaland and Vilsack are quiet A- players in their jobs. Linda Thomas-Greenfield is great at the UN.
Overall some hits and some misses, as usual. Hoping that a second term brings some fresh faces in some key positions!
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11 minutes ago, FourFans said:
Off the top of my head: Mattis, Pence, Pompeo, Carson, Ross and I'll even throw Nikki Haley in there.
Not a bad list (disagree about Carson but YMMV), but low-key Mnuchin was the best senior Trump Admin official. And I was highly skeptical of him when he was nominated! Dan Coats as DNI was also good IMHO.
Mnuchin also took one of the best cartoon-villain pictures of all time haha.
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14 hours ago, ViperMan said:
The truth is the exact opposite of this. I actually can't tell if you're serious, or seriously trolling. But inflation crushes those who save, and richly rewards those who spend every cent.
Think about it this way - inflation makes your money worthless. Does it make sense to hold on to something whose value is decreasing?
We're both right; I'm not trolling you.
Textbook answer, yes, inflation hurts savers. However IRL who is doing better in today's economic environment?
- A worker who spends every last dollar and prays his raises keep up with inflation, or
- Someone who saves (and invests, I should have added that before) in a broadly diversified portfolio heavily weighted toward equities, and also puts their savings in a high-yield savings account that more or less preserves the purchasing power of their saved dollars by offering rates at or slightly above inflation?
The second guy is way better, and everyone on this board has the capability to be the second guy. Furthermore inflation helps borrowers who have locked in loans for big-ticket items at lower rates, which also likely applies to lots of people on BO.net, myself included.
South American-style hyperinflation, yea you're hosed if you have saved, but that's not what we're seeing here today.
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37 minutes ago, HeloDude said:
If the economy was so great then we wouldn’t be running a $1.8 TRILLION annual deficit…
Did you consider the economy good Jan 2017 - Jan 2021?
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45 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:
I think that is a very good explanation and it sounds like you are set up for financial success!
You're not wrong that many people are struggling, but then again that's always the case. Inflation in particular punishes people who stupidly overspend and richly rewards those who save. Unfortunately too few people take advantage of that. The stupid-cheap money era particularly since 2008 has also melted a lot of brains and folks have failed to learn how to exist in other fiscal environments that are historically very typical.
1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:The average American has definitely lost real time purchasing power due to inflationary policies
This was true from early 2021 until early 2023, but is no longer true. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/
I'll make a broader counter-argument though, economic sentiments are often about vibes and expectations.
Did you know that inflation today is lower than at any point during the Reagan Administration? Morning in America also had higher unemployment than today. The vibes then were great and the admin was beating expectations compared to what folks got used to during the stagflation of the 70s. Today, despite objectively better numbers on inflation and unemployment rate, the vibes are somewhat bad and this economy has underperformed the expectations of many folks for various reasons. 🤷♂️
I will die on the hill that the economy now is good and that it's a fantastic time to save, invest, and live your best life. This is especially true for the types of people that populate this board, people who are are largely well-educated, well-compensated, and likely equipped with the ability to conceive of & execute a long-term plan.
I for one don't sweat the price of, and I truly have to lol here, jeans & "nice shirts" at the NEX 😂 #DadFashion to the max there @ViperMan. What's the price of braided belts like these days?
My investing advice remains the same no matter what short of a zombie apocalypse: spend less time doing complex stuff, worrying, trading, etc. Just invest broadly in the most successful companies in the world's most successful economy and chill.
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29 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:
Are you purchasing anything with your investments? I don’t Think you’re using the term purchasing power correctly but open to hear your thoughts.
Not yet, but I plan on it one day! That’s the idea of “real return.” Real = adjusted for inflation.
If stocks are up 7% for the year and inflation was 3% that year, your real return is 4%. My purchasing power for the same basket of goods is 4% higher.
With round numbers historical S&P 500 yearly return (last 50 years) is about 11%, and historical yearly inflation (last 50 years) is about 4%, so your average real return investing in the S&P 500 on that time frame is about 7%. This is why investing in large US corporations has been very good in the long-run, you make sizable real returns.
This kind of modeling is where you get rules of thumb like the 4% rule, meaning you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio yearly in retirement and never run out of money. Under that rule of thumb you’re counting on at least 4% real returns each year, which is conservative given the above numbers that arrived at 7%, but then again you likely don’t have a 100% equities allocation while retired, so less volatile assets usually = lower real returns = a lower safe withdrawal rate.
Bottom like: save 25x your desired annual spend, DCA into (mostly) equities indexes while working, slowly adjust to more fixed assets as you age & retire, profit. Save all the extra brain bites way too many folks burn on day trading and complex real estate deals and crypto for learning how to paint or build a canoe or fix old cars or play with your kids & grandkids.
Example: I want to spend $100K annually in retirement, I should save & invest to have a $2.5m portfolio at retirement. Take your current age, your desired retirement age, and an annual compounding of approx. 7% per above to figure out how much you need to save & invest annually to reach the target on time. Play with the assumptions as you see fit and model something you are comfortable pursuing. Build in multiple layers of conservative estimates…I’m always a fan of under-promise / over-deliver and you can do that for your future self as well.
This is all separate from any social security, VA disability payments or pensions, all of which can significantly lower the size of the retirement investment portfolio you would need to support the lifestyle you want.
As always YMMV, but if more people did the above and resisted the siren song to do anything more complex, they’d be better off.
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2 minutes ago, ViperMan said:
I did notice. I didn't understand the "but Republicans" refrain. Anyway.
Democratic Admin argues one thing, companies argue another, decided in DOJ’s favor by a Republican judge. Doesn’t seem particular partisan when the Dem admin and GOP judge both agree with the same argument. That was my point on the politics.
That being said, I’m neutral on the actual case…do you have an opinion on this or other mergers that’s worth sharing?
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36 minutes ago, ViperMan said:
Ok a Reagan judge decided the case. You do understand that it was Biden's administration that brought the case right?
You understand one of the most basic features of our government and the separation of powers is that the judicial branch can't charge people? That they can't bring cases? That they can't actually direct the very power they wield?
Yep, that why I mentioned that the Biden DOJ argued the case! Good noticing though. I guess their argument was more persuasive to a very experienced and likely a decently conservative judge than the argument made by the companies.
What were the best arguments for and against allowing the merger? At what point is the industry too consolidated? Would you be ok with, say, Delta and United merging today? How did the Delta & NW merger work out? How about American and U.S. Air? And for whom? Shareholders, managers, workers, and customers are all different constituencies.
How about McDonnell-Douglas and Boeing merging, how well did that work out?
I’m asking genuine questions, other than that last one. Like I said, I’m not an expert and have no dog in the fight of the actual JetBlue/Spirit merger, other than bad experiences flying with both of them. Interested in the thoughts of others here on the pros/cons of both historical airline mergers and possible future defense & aviation consolidation in general.
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Just now, ViperMan said:
So I'm glad you have 26% more dollars in your account, but will it buy 26% more?
I mean if inflation is around 3.5% YOY and my investments are up 26% over that same time, my purchasing power increased about 22.5%, which is incredibly good! I will take years like the last 12 months economically every day and twice on Sunday.
The “one weird trick” of investing is DCA into a broad index of equities, and literally do nothing else.
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Hey y’all is BO.net a better place now that literally almost every single thread is a political circle jerk?
I for one vote no.
My investing advice is VTSAX and chill plus don’t buy too much shit you don’t need. There is little need to go beyond that unless more complicated & time-consuming investing is a hobby you personally enjoy.
Most of my portfolio is up ~26% in the last 12 months so life is good there. No trading, no crypto, no art/wine/startups/etc. just DCA into index and move on living life. Literally the easiest path to comfortable wealth available given enough time and some modest inputs, especially if made early on in your life.
Also if your parents can be rich I’ve seen (but not personally experienced) that it helps tremendously 😄 Next time around I’d like to try that route out.
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On 4/9/2024 at 1:10 AM, ViperMan said:
Spirit and JB should be allowed to sue the shit out of the Biden regime.
Yea that dastardly Ronald Reagan really played the long game on this one! The judge in that case was appointed by Reagan in 1985. I get that the Biden DOJ was arguing against the merger, but it was not them that decided the case.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_G._Young
FWIW I’m not a M&A expert nor an airline business expert, so I don’t really have a dog in the fight on if the merger was a good idea or not.
My hot take is that as a customer you shouldn’t fly either JetBlue nor Spirit anyways! Pay for a big boy airline ticket and you & your bags have a much better chance of arriving at your destination fairly close to your intended arrival time.
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1 hour ago, Moley said:
Reviving an old discussion, came across this locally for $25 and couldn't resist a Pops jacket for that much.
Damn that is a fantastic find! I have it on good authority a new one from Pop’s costs just a *bit* more than $25 😅 Still well worth it, fantastic jacket.
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1 hour ago, kaputt said:
Some real geniuses in the junior enlisted ranks these days.
We really need to get our junior enlisted back into shady Dodge Charger loans and questionable Fayetteville-quality pussy. Seems like a better way to spend your leave.
🙄🤷♂️
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3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:
Wonderful job by Biden trying to take Easter away from all the Christians and rebrand it Transgender Awareness Day of Visibility.
This awareness day has been on the same day, March 31st, for 15 years apparently.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Transgender_Day_of_Visibility
I for one find it awfully suspicious that Christians can’t even pick a day when Easter is celebrated…it keeps moving around every year! Very shady. 👀
Frankly it’s a slap in the face to all the upstanding secular people in this country who are forced to keep track of this weird, shifty day when maybe the grocery store will be closed.
Jesus Christ, pick a day and stick with it Christians!
/sarcasm
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1 hour ago, Polar Bear said:
There is a lawyer in Texas that will get you a 100% VA rating guaranteed.
I’m gonna go out on a limb again and say this is not right. There is absolutely no way anyone should “guarantee” getting every client to 100% VA disability - it is not the case that every veteran has conditions that warrant that rating.
I’m all for claiming what you have and getting paid every dollar you deserve, hell, go ahead and hire professionals to help you out even. But don’t commit fraud and don’t give money to people who are promising things that amount to fraud.
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17 hours ago, herkbum said:
And you likely never will in the GCS. All of my damage was done in the Herk.
I mean sure…I did fly 2K hours manned previously, I guess I’m just lucky to not suffer from that particular ailment. One fan of freedom on Draco is much quieter than the four on the Herc 😄
BLUF: claim all the stuff you have that’s legit, don’t claim things that aren’t even if they just so happen to be common and very hard to disprove. I felt like there was an implied *wink wink nod nod* there that perhaps wasn’t intended.
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On 3/29/2024 at 8:54 AM, B52gator said:
For example everyone should claim and get service connected tinnitus.
Eh…you’re flying too close to the sun here man.
I have thus far not claimed this condition because I do not, in fact, have ringing in my ears.
Without appropriate symptoms, a service member should not claim to suffer from a condition that would warrant a disability rating, full stop.
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1 hour ago, uhhello said:
Word is out that FSB took out the Key bridge.
Being serious or sarcasm? Haven't seen any indication of that.
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6 hours ago, 1:1:1 said:
Loading your car up with cinder blocks before you move
Look those bricks are precious to me! Definitely can’t trust TMO with them…
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Today in hypocrisy...
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by nsplayr
I am in charge of both, thanks 😃
Do you seriously think that Democrats are not in the military or in other positions of authority? New flash, people of all political stripes serve and do so well. My politics has little to do with my service in uniform.
A fellow pilot on my team is a HUGE Trump fan and we joke about it all the time, but we work great together. He gives me shit, I give him shit, we fly the mission, etc. We'll be checking different boxes on election day 2024, but pretty much every other day we're fully aligned on killing our nation's enemies and protecting it's friends & interests with airpower.
If that seems weird or foreign to you, I in turn hope that you are retired. TYFYS.