Skitzo
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Posts posted by Skitzo
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This.
I don't think they've ever read a history book. I'd recommend our leaders read a few books about WW1 and WW2. They are setting us up, in textbook fashion, for WW3. Morons.
What is the alternative? Do we leave the Pacific except for remaining in Guam? What position does that put our allies in the Pacific in vis a vis an ever growing China? If we leave the Pacific we will resign our status as a Global Super Power that has sustained the current International Order and acknowledge a bipolar or multipolar world.
Is it in our nations best interest to do so?
In Ukraine, do we give up and allow Russia to take it? If we did nothing at the start isn’t that akin to Neville Chamberlain and Hitler?
I’d argue each nation with interests has its own agency in the matter and is acting in accordance with what it believes to be its own best interests. John Mearsheimer 101.
It’s a zero sum game — it’s all about power and security. Both domestically and internationally.
You could make an argument that we are already at a low level of or run up to Word War currently with Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Hamas, Iran and Israel and the Houthis. The only powder keg that hasn’t kicked off yet is in the Pacific. But, it could easily. Imagine a scenario like the P-3 colliding with a PLA aircraft in today’s geopolitical landscape.
I think the best case scenario is a rapid realization that we have deliberately set up our military to be sized for a war in one theater and deterring in another. We did that because we were still the leading superpower.
We are facing a challenge that calls into question our ability to win with our current force structure given the problems around the world.
Whether our politicians are marching us steadily towards wider conflict isn’t as important as whether or not our politicians are equipping us to win that conflict and if we will have the political will to see that conflict through.
If we are successful we delay or defeat the pattern of Great Powers not remaining Great Powers.
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Leonard Cohen was more of a poet than a singer but when he did grace the stage the results were outstanding.
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To the friction with the base commanders point, apparently some old heads said that once upon a time, the base commanders were 0-5s, meaning the 0-6 Wing Commander could get his way; if the base commander is an 0-6 (think current Air Base Wings), then there will definitely be issues. I can see divorcing the current Ops Wing Kings from installation commander duties having its pros and cons.
To the span of control point, the Army often has multiple Battalion commanders (0-5s), under one 0-6 Brigade Commander, anecdotally with more discipline issues than an Air Force Wing. Seems that Army Battalion commanders are trusted much more than Air Force Squadron commanders. Don’t get me wrong, I have a lot of issues with the Army but they get some things right.
I cannot see base commanders being O-5s in the USAF. That would eliminate FSS/MSG O-6 billets. But I guess it could work somehow.
I had a US Army Infantry Company as my Security Forces at CADJ. I definitely agree with your sentiment—they were squared away (at least the team I got) and any/all issues were handled swiftly.
What we will need is to develop our officers to take that on. Flight Command will need to be a no kidding command with a big change to how discipline is run.
It’s going to be an interesting couple of years!
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To any of the old heads out there… we’ve done the “no groups” thing before and have arrived at the present structure for reasons.
While this missive addresses organizational change histories it uses relatively bland terms.
Off hand I can reason that it will be difficult for a single wing commander to deal with discipline issues as well as there being difficulty being an operational war fighting wing dealing with a base commander who may or may not be in your chain.
Anybody out there care to comment?
https://usafunithistory.com/usaf-structure-and-lineage-history.html
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Try emailing the CARF they should at least be able to point you in the direction of a POC. Possibly could help out the formation in an ALTRV for the event.
https://www.fly.faa.gov/carf/
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I know its kinda hit or miss, but any country lovers?
He nails what I would call country meets the blues. Very talented. Tennessee Whiskey is my fav from him and his voice is very reminiscent to SRV.
Speaking of SRV if you haven’t seen this you should. SRV and Albert King from the vault 1983
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Didn’t the 1st SOW get credit for their ORI when they went and did earthquake relief support in Haiti back in 2010/2011?
Yes, Wurster signed that off I believe. It’s the only time I’ve seen that. He actually told the Wing in person IIRC.
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There are two John Mayers. The one that makes a ton of money making teenage girls all mushy inside. And then there is the one that makes blues, and no one pays attention to that one. The second one is actually very good. The first one is kindy creepy and past his expiration date.
Only Taylor Swift is capable of staying an angsty teenager well into the thirties.
Agreed. He’s pretty talented Clapton approves.
Buddy Guy is still around touring at 87…
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It must be being in my 40s or something, or I was just sick of playing the same old music (average guitarist here) but I’ve been doing a deep dive of the blues.
Started when Jeff Beck passed on, led to discovering Beth Hart and Joe Bonamassa (among many others)
Lots of good blues artists out there besides the standard names and besides these two but here’s some of their best together.
I’d Rather Go Blind
I’ll Take Care of You
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They only had a week to get out of town....
It’s a careful dance…how to respond properly without escalating vertically or horoztonally.
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They also produce 80% of solar panels, 40% of all wind turbines and 90% of all rare earth elements used in EV production.
North American EV production is est at 1.4M in 2028, China produced 3.3M in 2020.
Source: Kevin Rudd, The Avoidable War
Chinese Teslas are being sold in Canada.
BL: China is profiting from global desires to reduce Climate Change while occupying the distinct advantage of a country whose own economic rise has been on the back of the environment Green Energy consumers are looking to help.
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It's been more than 100 years since China had anything like control or even a cooperative relationship with Taiwan. I lived there from 1970 through 1980 (HS graduation) while it was still under marshal law with the US protection and support. Before we were there, Japan ruled them for 50 years from 1894/5 through 1945 when we liberated Taiwan. Before that the Dutch, Portuguese, and several other countries had brief periods of "control". Before that the Qing dynasty had some control but really even back then it was its own ruled island (rough terrain, numerous people groups, largely untamed). China has no right to claim Taiwan at all.
Right, actually Xi’s axe to grind is “The Century of Humiliation,” starting with the first of the opium wars.
Whether or not they have a right to China is not really the question—it represents where Chang Kai-Shek led the Nationalists after their defeat in their Civil War on the mainland. I’m sure you know all of that based on your experience but it seems to be a driving factor for Xi to remain in power especially if the economy goes down the crapper.
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He’s also been disturbingly accurate in his prediction on some of this.
Zaihan may be a little more “end is near” than some for my taste, but his tie in with demographics in China and their hard stop coming economically has to dire a set of consequences to be avoided.
Unfortunately when you look at EV tech adoption our top level policy makers look to be hurtling cash into the sinking ship and ignoring our own industries that we will need in the immediate future. To them geopolitics comes in a distant 2nd when matched against climate interventionist vanity projects.
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Agreed, and if this is what China is saying publicly then imagine how bad it ACTUALLY is.
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China's Economy Is Shrinking. That Should Worry the US and the World. (businessinsider.com)
I'm not smart on global economics at all but I found this article interesting, don't know anything about the author.
If you’re looking to delve into the topic or international relations Peter Zaihan is pretty good. He takes a topic and distills it down in about 10 minutes or so in a way that doesn’t confuse me or make me feel stupid.
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This is a great take on changing world orders…. There’s also a 5 min version.
While I would hope that being open globally to trade would prevent us from conflict Mearsheimer has pointed out that this did not factor into WWI.
The only problem I see is that China’s continued rise is not certain, what they do release is troubling and it is on this basis that I presume things are worse than they seem especially with them filling their missiles with water over fuel.
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Can you do something? Yes, don’t do AWC in any variant. Fly the line, pass knowledge down to the younglings and still retire as an O-5.
My career path is not for the faint hearted, but it’s possible!
I know an 02 guy who did this. Still got O6
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https://www.airandspaceforces.com/slow-down-armed-overwatch-until-socom-justifies-fleet-gao-says/
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To find the enemy, you must think like the enemy.
Brings new light to the term “unrestricted submarine warfare.”
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Well done!
https://www.hurlburt.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3593164/hurlburt-field-u-28a-crews-awarded-distinguished-flying-cross-first-ever-for-dr/
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I dislike CNN as much as anyone here, but what does it say when the corporate mainstream media propagandists refuse to reinforce the narrative when they've loyally carried the water for this admin on every other issue?
Blinken and Austin were begging Congress for $100 Billion in support of Israel, on the same day CNN airs this.
Support for Israel is declining, even moreso with reports like this. Be it the economy, border security, public health emergencies, the Afghan withdrawl, the failed UKR counter-offensive, the trend is failure. I don't like to think that. But we've gotta face facts. This administration is positioning a massive fighting force, all that is needed is a defining moment or event that justifies using it while re-galvanizing public support. Then, they're gonna it up. Again.
Christ… anywho big daddy Mearsheimer has some pretty salient points:
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I was wondering what Mearsheimer would say about all of this and then I found out. Great interview.
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Pretty sure he’s referring to the techniques of a deliberate offset for a known amount of time to build in final turn spacing.
And I get the overall vibe about joking about instrument flying and just make it happen but I’ve lost a couple of friends to mistakes in instrument flying (which I’m sure a lot of you have as well) so I am a hammer when it comes to instrument procedures.
That’s precisely what I was referring to. Of course you can substitute lateral cross track references to the runway you are actually circling to but that can also be a negative habit pattern if you need to go actual missed.
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Circling approaches are more dangerous than anyone realizes for reasons not mentioned in the video.
First at least from my corner of the world there was generally very little thought into how to execute the maneuver ie: fly 30 degrees off runway heading for x seconds to obtain proper lateral distance for final turn. I generally assumed this to be because the PC-12 airframe is pretty versatile.
Second the ROC for the MDA puts you pretty close to the obstacle if you have even a modest deviation from the minimums and any sort of altimeter error. I never understood why the U28 V2 stated Q- for any deviation below the MDA even if momentary after AIS I finally understood.
Second the ROC in the FAA remains constant irregardless of Circling Category vice ICAO where the ROC increases the higher your category is. Cat A ICAO = 300. Cat D = ~394
Third in the FAA, TERPS criteria uses a floating scale from 25 at A to 22 degrees bank at Cat E whereas ICAO uses 20 degrees bank.
With 75 feet of altimeter error and a deviation of 100 feet from the MDA you could be within 125 feet of the obstacle you really don’t want to contact.
It’s not a dangerous maneuver when planned correctly and when you are aware of the risks but it’s seldomly trained to or executed in that manner, it’s a bean.
I have heard from bros who have gone to the airlines circling is almost treated like an EP.
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What is a "Senior Evaluator Pilot" Rating?
IIRC the Vol 2 has a blurb about a Senior Examiner Program that doesn’t have a requirement for a valid instructor qualification.
I’ve never seen it in practice though…
Edit: Former AFSOC A3V Chief and didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
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World War III Updates
in General Discussion
Posted
No, they haven’t but that doesn’t stop them from trying when the alternative powers are not friendly.
I think things would have been much different had the UK and USA had not been on good terms post WWII.
During the Civil War, England recognized the Confederacy’s “Belligerent Status,” stopping short of recognizing the sovereignty of the Confederacy. The Confederacy had envoys on British Naval vessels, Ala the Trent Affair.
At risk were lucrative trade deals etc, but you could also argue that fomenting conflict between the two sides by respecting a belligerent status and remaining neutral was sacrosanct endorsement that either the South could win or a stalemate could emerge.
Otherwise they would have supported the North.
Neutrality equates to not caring about a return to the Status Quo - Ante.
Applying a realist view to this, smart on the part of England because a divided America would have reduced the overall power balance by shifting it two nations instead of one. Thus increasing or safeguarding its status as the leading world power at the time ala Pax Brittanaca.
Also we are not an empire.
IMHO.
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