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SocialD

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Posts posted by SocialD

  1. 37 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

    FYI getting to a fully autonomous car is a much more difficult problem than a self-flying airplane - basic reason, the driving environment is drastically more complex than the aircraft environment.

    You and I may understand that but how do you think the general public views it?  Do you really think they'll trust pilotless planes when they see so many accidents with driverless cars?  The flying public don't think logically like you and I.

    Case and point...everything is flowing smoothly, beautiful day, no delays.  We push early, get right on the runway and take off way early.   I see we're going to be 30 minutes early...and we're going into LA.  I know gate space is a premium and i've been burned by this before.  So I decide to slow up and get closer to an on time arrival.  We land, roll right into the recently opened gate, and people are happy with our on time arrival. 

    New jet, new day...I see we're going to be 30 minutes early, however I decide to keep the speed up because I forget about the mess that is LAX.  We land early and the gate is still occupied.  So we sit on the ramp for 30 minutes, shut down an engine (maybe both) to save gas.  Meanwhile in the back, the passengers are absolutely losing their freaking minds!  They inform the FAs that "there are open gates right there!!!"  Finally our gate opens, and we roll into the gate ON TIME.  You wouldn't believe the mean mugs and the anger in their faces!    Smile and wave boys...time to get to the hotel before we miss happy hour!

    • Upvote 6
  2. 1 hour ago, TnkrToad said:

    Honest questions:

    1. How many hours did your civ bros have when they got hired? If they got hired before the 1500 hr rule went into effect and they had less than the R-ATP mins, that would be very different from the current circumstance than we're discussing here

    2. How much student debt did your bros typically graduate with?

    3. Especially if they got hired before or after the 1500 rule went into effect, how did they build their hours to get to R-ATP mins, and how much were they paid while building hours toward those mins?

    4. Once hired by a regional, what's their pay been, and how easy has it been for your bros to live while paying off their student loans?

    Folks getting hired at age 37 today clearly did not have to contend with the 1500 hr rule when they interviewed with the regionals. Just trying to figure out if your peers' experience matches with what folks contemplating going the civ route today would have to deal with.

    TT

    1.  They were all hired prior to the 1500 hr rule.  In the early phases (2002-2004), guys were barely getting regional jobs with 2,000 hours.  Then in the mid 2000s it went down to ~1,000-1,500 hours.  In 2007ish, I knew guys getting on at the regionals with 250-300 hours...basically a wet multi-engine certificate.  

    2.  If I had to guess...50-60k in debt.  The Guard paid my bill, so I'm not sure of the exact amount.  I'm guessing that debt is closers to 80-90k these days.  Stay away from the ERAUs and NDSUs of the world.

    3.  Most guys were CFIs to build their hours.  In 2004 I was paid $12-14/hour as a CFII...probably make 15-20k/yr.   Other guys went on to stuff like towing banners ~$15-30/hour.  Once they hit 1,200 hours guys would go fly night freight making 20-30k/year starting out starting out.  *LOTS of those night freight jobs, that used to get guys great experience have all but dried up.

    4.  Back then 15-21k/year to start (no shit Great Lakes base pay was 13,500/yr), moving up in the 30-40k range a few years later.  It was a struggle for those dudes, but most managed.  However, most of my buds have working wives (non-working wives was such a foreign concept to me when I went to pilot training).  When they upgraded to Captain they were in the 50k+ range.  Regional pay is slowly creeping up...guys are starting at 30k/yr with bonuses on top of that now.   

     

    With a program like that PSA thing, dudes finish college with 300ish hours if they haven't done any flight instructing.  I graduated college with 700 hours thanks to getting my CFII my junior year.  They'll roll into a regional a year or so later making 30k+, probably upgrade to Captain in 2-3 years and be making 60k+ in their mid 20s.  This is head and shoulders above what I would have experienced had I got the regional route out of college.  

    Since the 1500 hour rule, regional wages have increases a fair amount.  Also, most of my bros were regional Captains and Line Check airman and the stories they had about the low time dudes were absolutely scary.  They all agree that the quality of First Officers they were getting dramatically increased with the 1500 hour rule.  

  3. 26 minutes ago, Warrior said:

    Short term I think you're right. Longer term I think the airlines will find a way to decrease their demand for pilots.

    As the American public gets comfortable with self driving cars, how long before the idea of autonomous passenger airplanes moves into the realm of possible?

    I think that's the long term future of the airline industry. 5 years ago I would have said never gonna happen.

    I don't think it will happen soon enough for it to have an impact on most of our careers.  The big hiring is over the next 15ish years.  I think it will be tough to get the technology to a level needed and the public onboard with this idea over that timeframe.  Hell they can't even get self driving cars to do it right.  There are videos all over of these cars blowing stop signs, almost hitting people and a few fatality crashes.  

    Also, the airlines will only do it if it's financially advantageous to do so.  So the technology needs to be refined, then be cheap enough for the companies to go along with it.  This isn't even consider the $$$ needed to update the national airspace system.  After that, it will only happen if the customer is ready for such a change.  In the end it's all about the customer, and many won't get on a plane with no pilots.  There is a Rand study published that talks about the implementation of single pilot cockpits, then unmanned cockpits.  If I remember correctly, it recommends starting with the cargo carriers, doing ocean crossing from coastal cities to coastal cities.  Then after that's been proven, cargo ops over the conus before they get to the airlines.  

    I believe the technology is moving along at a record pace, but it still has along way to go.  Right now our flight plans/flight data is uploaded electronically, all we have to do is accept and ok.  However, there is still a fair amount of user input required.  Then it's changed multiple times over a flight.  Reroutes have been uploaded and been totally wrong.  Ever seen the 737 AP in action?  It will water your eyes with how terrible it is at it's job.

    • Upvote 1
  4. 1 hour ago, TnkrToad said:

    Per the website: "New hires at PSA are projected to flow to American Airlines after only 6 years." (emphasis added) 

    Brilliant plan.

    Actually not a bad deal for the civilian bros.  Many of the guys I graduated with, spent more time that that at their respective regionals (some are still there), with no guarantee (use that term loosely) of a job.  I think you'll see the majors pair up with colleges and universities to have direct hire programs that will place them at a regional of choice.  They'll fly there until they're needed at the mainline down the road.  It's just one way for them to secure a steady flow of "known quantity" of pilots, to supplement mil folks.  Get hired at 22, spend 5ish years at a regional and start at mainline at 28...that's way better than most will accomplish.  The average age of a Delta new hire is sitting ~37ish. 

  5. 19 minutes ago, HerkFE said:

    Why TF would the FAA give two shits about this?  

    FAA:  Why should we do this?

    Goldfein:  All of my people are leaving for a better QOL.

    FAA:  Your concern is noted.   Why don't you get your shit in order before you come begging us to unfuck your house...

    FIFY.

    If they think it's bad now, I'm sure they're really scared about what it will look like in a few years.  In 2020 Delta starts retiring 500+/year, and doesn't drop below that number until after 2030.  Five of those years are 700+.  Thats 51% of the current seniority list in 10 years...not accounting for early outs.  I'm sure UAL/AALs numbers will follow closely.  

    • Upvote 3
  6. Shithole of an island.  Everything worth seeing in Guam can be hit in 3 weeks.  After that, it's groundhog day.  Be sure to hit up McKrauts for some good German beer!   For morning coffee, grab a redeye from Island Girl Coffee n' Quenchers...good scenery there.

    • Upvote 1
  7. On January 28, 2017 at 0:34 AM, MilitaryToFinance said:

    No matter what Dave Ramsey is selling you in his books, a little leverage isn't a bad thing.

    2!  Before, I was paying $1,200/month to live in a single family home.  I bought a duplex with a little leverage, now I generate enough income to pay both of my mortgages and all of my monthly bills.  

    18 hours ago, nunya said:

    In fairness to Dave, his target audience doesn't know what leverage is, and certainly doesn't know how to properly use it without getting burned.

    This!  I listened to his book while driving across the U.S., and his plan is extremely basic for most of the members of this forum.   However, I think his book should be read by more Americans.  It provides a good base for people so springboard off of, to other financial endeavors.  As a country, I think we do a TERRIBLE job of teaching our young financial intelligence and responsibility.  Unless your parents teach you, where do they get educated on this?  This is one of my soapbox items.  

    • Upvote 1
  8. https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/2913

    Any chance of this bill seeing the light of day?

    12304b vs 12301d 

    These are our choices when our squadron gets involuntarily mobilized to "deploy" to some non-contingency TSP (to do absolutely nothing).  It's akin to picking between the fat chick and the ugly chick.  

    Here is an article on the matter.  What it doesn't say is that while 12301d gives you all the benefits listed in the article, it is NOT USERRA exempt (but could be with SECAF approval)...even though we are INVOLUNTARILY mobilized.  

    http://www.arpc.afrc.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/267/Article/698148/changes-to-dod-mobilization-authority-could-impact-reservists.aspx

     

    Thanks for dropping by Baseops.

  9. 7 hours ago, hindsight2020 said:

    P.S. One gratuitous pot shot observation of the airline gig. You know, for the greatest job in the world, people sure spend a lot of time hiding from it in the military. 

    Some do, many do not.  I would venture to guess that most of those who do "hide out," are commuters.  No way I would go back on orders, life is "pretty darn good," as a part timer. 

    36 minutes ago, ViperStud said:

    Never. Think AD is going to let recall dudes climb the corporate ladder as DOs and CCs?  Try flight commander, chief of training, UDM or (if lucky) line IP.  

    On the contrary, the only way I would consider such an assignment is with the following;

    -Spang or Aviano, line IP only, no additional duties (maybe asst. scheduler), no non-vol single man "TDY/Deployments" (I'll deploy with the squadron), Mon-Thurs work week, 0700-1730 work day (debrief stops to be out the door at 17:30:01), I can take my leave whenever I want (ALL of it...in 15 or 30 day chunks), ...and I'm gonna need ~125k/yr bonus for the 3 years (I don't care that I'm still under my UPT ADSC).  

    FWIW, my SQ/CC recently received an e-mail asking if he had guys willing to come back on active duty for an assignment (flying or staff).  Oddly enough, no bites...

    18 minutes ago, Gazmo said:

    Let's see.... I'll take a stab at this.

    The Guard and Reserves used to be a real good deal, but things have changed a lot since 9/11. We're being abused. The difference now is that we have options and leverage. Is it still a better deal than AD? In a lot of ways, yes, but our government's expectations from the ARC is over the top.

    They've gotten used to the ARC's willingness to bend over backwards to get'r done for a paycheck. Furloughed airline pilots, ARC bums, ART's looking to close the gap between a shitty net pay and an AGR salary, you name it, the ARC has risen to the occasion with just about everything they've thrown at us. Yeah, we all raised our hands and are as patriotic as the next guy, but at the end of the day you have to make it worth our while to do rotation after rotation to PACOM and CENTCOM.

    We don't have the reprieve the AD guys do of a staff tour (gasp), being detailed to the Wing or getting a white jet tour to break up the monotony of living in the desert. Traditional guardsmen/reservists are pretty much line pilots for life. You have the option to stay in as a Lt Col for 28 years and fly the line every day of those 28 years. We've relied on a lot of volunteerism, but when you've got guys who've been doing this for 15-20 years, they're getting tired and it's come to the point where it's just not worth it to them anymore.

    I don't care what some of the AD guys think, it's not easy to be a mission-ready pilot at less than 1/3 the cost of our AD counterparts while holding a full-time civilian job. We don't have to do any less training than anyone else out there. Add that to the mountains of ancillary training, DIY administrative queep, and the neverending shift toward support agencies being allowed to run the AF the way they want it run, not the way it should be run.

    Our traditionals don't get a bonus to stay past 10 years. In the past, our retention program was good deal trips to cush destinations and unparalleled comradery while we were there, but those deals are few and far in between. Add that to anal retentive policies that have shit-canned just about any fun you could possibly have in fear of an article 15 or worse, jail time.

    On the full-time side, the ART program is going to destroy the ARC's ability to maintain mission-ready flying squadrons and they're about 10 years too late trying to fix it.

    So yes, I see there being many challenges for the ARC and I'm not looking forward to it. I need 5 more years to get my guard retirement. It's gonna be the longest 5 years of my life. Speaking of retirements, this new military retirement system coming online soon will NOT work in the ARC's favor for retention.

     

    This...all of this right here!

    It was one thing when we were deploying every 2-2.5 years, for 45-60 days, to go drop bombs.  But now we're "deploying" every 20-22 months, for 90-110 days, to do NOTHING...  Dudes are asking themselves, why they're taking HUGE pay cuts to go twiddle their thumbs on some non-relevant TSP.       

    • Upvote 1
  10. I can assure you he isn't the only one exploring all options.  Life changes, commanders change (big issue with some squadrons) and the Guard has drastically changed!  It seems that lately, there have been quite a few dudes leave squadrons for other gigs (flying and non-flying).    Take one look at where the Guard Vipers have been sent lately.  Involuntarily mobilized...to go sit and do nothing.  What a waste of manpower and tax dollars...I'll never understand how it's not fraud, waste and abuse.

    I'm not sure of the reference, but have you checked the ADSC paperwork we signed at the end of UPT?  A quick google search turned up AFI 36-2001 (1.10-1.11).  It may not have the answer you're looking for, but it may provide a trail to search.  Have you talked to a JAG?  Let us know what you find.  

    Best of luck!

  11.  You can see them all here at the National Guard Bureau Legislative Liaison...just search section 616.

    Looks like the House was down with 60k and the Senate was not.  Note:  Didn't look through the whole bill, just CTRL-F "incentive."  

    Quote

    H.R. 4909

    SEC. 616. INCREASE IN MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF AVIATION SPECIAL PAYS FOR FLYING DUTY.

    Section 334(c)(1) of title 37, United States Code, is amended by striking subparagraphs (A) and (B) and in- serting the following new subparagraphs:

    ‘‘(A) aviation incentive pay under sub- section (a) shall be paid at a monthly rate not to exceed $1,000 per month; and

    ‘‘(B) an aviation bonus under subsection (b) may not exceed $60,000 for each 12-month period of obligated service agreed to under sub- section (d).’’. 

     

     

    Quote

    S.2943 Bill

    SEC. 616. AVIATION INCENTIVE PAY AND BONUS MATTERS.

    (a) MAXIMUM INCENTIVE PAY AND BONUS AMOUNTS.—Paragraph (1) of section 334(c) of title 37, United States Code, is amended by striking subpara- graphs (A) and (B) and inserting the following new sub- paragraphs:

    ‘‘(A) aviation incentive pay under sub- section (a) shall be paid at a monthly rate not to exceed $1,000 per month; and

    ‘‘(B) an aviation bonus under subsection (b) may not exceed $35,000 for each 12-month period of obligated service agreed to under sub-

    section (d).’’.

     

     

    Quote

    Joint Explanatory Statement

    Aviation incentive pay and bonus matters (sec. 616)

    The House amendment contained a provision (sec. 616) that would amend section 334(c)(1) of title 37, United States Code, to increase the statutory limits for the aviation incentive pay and retention bonus to $1,000 per month and $60,000 per year, respectively, and would allow the Secretary concerned the flexibility to increase the aviation incentive pay limit set forth in regulations issued by the Secretary of Defense under section 374 of title 37, United States Code.

    The Senate bill contained no similar provision.

    The Senate recedes with an amendment that would authorize a maximum aviation bonus of $35,000 for each 12-month period of obligated service, and requires the appropriate Service Secretary to submit a justification with each fiscal year's budget request for the aviation bonus amounts by aircraft type category, the business case supporting the amount requested, and a description by the Secretary concerned on how they will address manning shortfalls by non-monetary means.

    The conferees note the current Chief of Staff of the Air Force stated in response to advance policy questions in preparation for his confirmation hearing, “We will tailor any potential bonus based upon specific platform and overall Air Force requirements. The requested increase is not a set amount. If approved, this will give us the flexibility to tailor bonus amounts and contract terms by platform.” The conferees strongly agree with targeting aviation bonuses toward the most critical manning shortfalls by aircraft type category as a way to incentivize retention behavior, and strongly support this method for use across the Department of Defense.

    The conferees also expect the Services to continue developing and implementing policies to tackle non-monetary reasons for low aviator retention rates, and to use these

    incentive and bonus authorities to incentivize needed retention levels using a business case rather than as a reward or entitlement, to correct both the undermanning of certain aircraft type categories and the overmanning of others.

  12. 1 hour ago, Jaded said:

    http://middlegeorgiaceo.com/news/2016/11/record-reliability-delta-marks-200th-day-without-mainline-cancellation/

    Delta logged 910,000 mainline flights in a row without a cancellation this year with "contract" MX. The Air Force just sucks at writing contracts, like it sucks at managing acquisitions, manning, logistics, education, career development...

    Ya....kinda.  I had a trip that was NOOP (not operated...worked out great, went home and got paid for it anyway)...we have some pretty loose definitions of not canceling a flight.  I think as long as we operate it within 24 hours, it's not considered cancelled.  Just like our "on-time" performance.  Oh you aren't gonna make your push...no problem, we'll push that back 15 minutes.  No matter to me...I get paid the same either way!   

  13. 13 hours ago, ViperStud said:

    Some rumors are spreading in the ANG and that the AGR bonus is staying at 25k/yr even if/when the AD bonus goes up. That'd be an interesting play.  AGRs deal with far less bullshit than AD counterparts yet they still are resigning their positions to get a line number. Anyone in the know have any SA?

    Very interesting play indeed.  We have guys about to end a year or 2 of MLOA that are on the fence about extending...this bonus will be a big player.  There are new patches resigning and going to the airlines.  The Guard BS is much less than our AD counterparts, but it's still very much UP, relatively speaking.  

  14. 1 hour ago, tk1313 said:

    Miramar is a special case for whatever reason. More retired military in the area possibly?

    Day 1 of a two week trip to Davis-Monthan, I'm first out the gate, and roll onto the runway as the sun is cresting the horizon (TDY squadrons lose the BMGR scheduling war).  The controller says, "time to wake up the complainers, cleared for takeoff..."  Turns out a PW229, makes A LOT of noise on a cold, calm, quiet Tucson morning.  Within 20 minutes of our first takeoffs (8-ship), we have numerous noise complaints.   After talking with  the DM folks, they say the biggest complainers are former milItary.  "...I was in 20 years and I know how they're supposed to fly..."   I think they said in the 2 weeks we were there, they had more noise complaints than the previous 6-9 months.  

    One of the great things about being at a stand alone Guard squadron is the locals love us!  I stopped at a coffee ship on my way to work and had someone walk up a say they had a complaint!  He says, you don't fly low enough, fast enough or loud enough over my house...then he buys my coffee.  Small town, hard working, blue collar Americans...gotta love them!  

    • Upvote 6
  15. 16 hours ago, YoungnDumb said:

    How are things going to be in the CAF when all these Viper dudes show up at the same time?  Will there be a shortage of cockpits/flight hours?  How does the CAF plan to deal with such a massive in flux of young wingman all at the same time?

    They'll start farming more out to Guard squadrons and put the burden on us to get them experienced.  We already have one AD guy and I expect we'll see more in the near future.  Problem is, all our IPs, and flight leads are going to the airlines too.  Oh and I'm sure we'll get the mx guys, to help with sortie generation, any day now.  Check is in the mail...

    • Upvote 1
  16. 3 weeks is WAY too long.  Brabus, has a great idea and would be perfect.   Ok, you won't shorten it back to two weeks?  Then don't get all pissed off and push back when we say we're going to need a swap out.  Many of us still have an alert mission to man, this eats up a lot of manpower.  No swaps = same full timers flying RF year after year.  Good luck getting part timers to drop a whole month of mil leave for a RF, especially when many are losing big $$$$ to do so.

    • Upvote 4
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