Track Selects and Assignment Drops

[Guest Miclhstrase]

I've done a lot of reading on the what goes on after you make it into UPT and what happens from there on. I liked how Baseops had some personal journals for people, it really gives you an idea of how the whole process works. However, I noticed that most of the journals I saw were for people doing heavies . Is there any reason for this trend? Is it just that personal character required to come onto a website and post your personal story is restricted to people who choose heavies? I believe only one of the journals was a T-38 track and it was a B-1 drop.

What are the statistics on track selects and drops? If all goes well with Phase I and Phase II, are you likely to get your track select, or does it all depend on the AF needs? How about drops? If things go well in Phase III, are you likely to get one of your top 5 drop selects? A lot of people post what drop they got, and sometimes they'll say "it was my third choice," but they never list their order of preference. For all I know that guy who got the B-1 drop maybe had F-16 first. To be perfectly honest, I would be happy with almost anything on the T-38 track. Although I would prefer fighters.

Any help is appreciated.

Thanks,

- Bryan

Edited April 10, 2008 by Miclhstrase

[brabus]

I think there's a limited number of people who actually want to take the time to keep up a UPT journal like you've seen, and it's just so happened that they all went T-1s. That's probably just coincidence more than anything...though I'm pretty sure we'd get ridiculed beyond belief if one of us had made a journal and the IPs knew about it (at least in 38 land).

Do some searching on the rest of your questions...they all can be pretty much answered elsewhere. But the short of it is, timing and luck is everything: you may be in a class of slackasses and look like a god, or you might have a class with a couple really great hands and now you just look average. There could be 6 38s at track select or there could be 2, there could be 5/6 fighters in a drop or there could be 1/4...who knows. Point is, do your best and concentrate on the things you can control - attitude and effort. Everything else is totally out of your hands.

[Guest Miclhstrase]

I think there's a limited number of people who actually want to take the time to keep up a UPT journal like you've seen, and it's just so happened that they all went T-1s. That's probably just coincidence more than anything...though I'm pretty sure we'd get ridiculed beyond belief if one of us had made a journal and the IPs knew about it (at least in 38 land).

Do some searching on the rest of your questions...they all can be pretty much answered elsewhere. But the short of it is, timing and luck is everything: you may be in a class of slackasses and look like a god, or you might have a class with a couple really great hands and now you just look average. There could be 6 38s at track select or there could be 2, there could be 5/6 fighters in a drop or there could be 1/4...who knows. Point is, do your best and concentrate on the things you can control - attitude and effort. Everything else is totally out of your hands.

That is most likely the case when it comes to the Journals. There just aren't that many of them, so it's probably just a coincidence.

I don't know if I could spend my service time flying heavies. I'm sure it would grow on me, but it definitely wouldn't be my first choice. I know there's a thread here that shows tracks selects and results for various classes, but I really wish it could also some how show choices. A lot of times I see things like 5 T-1's and 1 T38, and I don't know the reasoning behind those numbers. I mean, the fighter pilot is a dying icon, but they still need people to fly all those F-35's they're building, right? My dream has always been to fly the F-16, but I'm sure my dream is a crowded place and those slots are extremely competitive.

Also, once in UPT, does anything that you did before matter anymore? Do those PCSM and AFOQT scores mean anything anymore? Does that college GPA matter? Or is it all about your performance in UPT and not dropping your map under your seat in flight?

Perhaps I should just take my AFOQT before I get too worked up about everything.

[Guest ASUcadet]

A lot of people who want fighters change their minds at UPT and one of the biggest criticisms of ENJJPT is that people get locked into flying fighters before they know if its for them. When I went for my F-16 ride, one of the pilots told me that they get quite a few cadets who tell them that all they've ever wanted to do is fly fighters, then after their ride they don't even know if they still want to go to UPT.

Also, if you think you would be unhappy flying heavies then you might be setting yourself up for disappointment. You haven't gone up for pilot yet, so you may not even get that. Just take the cards you're dealt, realize that a lot of the stuff that will influence which way you go will be completely out of your control, and do your best at whatever is in your control.

[Guest Miclhstrase]

A lot of people who want fighters change their minds at UPT and one of the biggest criticisms of ENJJPT is that people get locked into flying fighters before they know if its for them. When I went for my F-16 ride, one of the pilots told me that they get quite a few cadets who tell them that all they've ever wanted to do is fly fighters, then after their ride they don't even know if they still want to go to UPT.

Also, if you think you would be unhappy flying heavies then you might be setting yourself up for disappointment. You haven't gone up for pilot yet, so you may not even get that. Just take the cards you're dealt, realize that a lot of the stuff that will influence which way you go will be completely out of your control, and do your best at whatever is in your control.

That's good advice. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong. I should really first make sure my vision is on par, otherwise I should just give up now. Last I checked I was 20/50 and 20/40, but maybe my vision got worse, I don't know. Well if I do well on my AFOQT, I'll get some flight hours to see if I even like flying to begin with. If all that goes well I'll apply to OTS and an pilot slot, and if I get both, then I'll make my decision. I don't see how it can hurt me just going through the steps though.

I noticed you're an ASU student, what major and what year? I'm a junior chemical engineering major. Do you know who I can talk to around here about all of this stuff? I'm having trouble getting in contact with the Tempe recruiter, and I've exchanged e-mails with whoever leads the AFROTC at ASU in the past, but not recently.

How was that F16 ride?

[brabus]

I don't know if I could spend my service time flying heavies

At this point, you should be happy to fly any REAL plane (reference the various UAV bashing threads). Admittedly I am very happy to have gone 38s and heading towards a fighter (*crosses fingers*), but at the same time to say you'd rather just not fly for the AF if it meant flying a C-17, C-130, etc. is stupid IMO. Personally I would be disappointed for a bit if all of the sudden I had to go fly a "heavy", but I guarantee I'd get over it quickly and have fun. It sure beats the hell out of any desk job or getting paid 0.69$/hr to fly for some small regional.

A lot of people who want fighters change their minds at UPT

Happens all the time. It's just about the norm for every cadet/dude in HS/college to want to fly fighters, but I bet about 75% change their mind once they start UPT. You don't really know what you want until you get a small taste of it. Keep your mind open...F-16s may be the coolest thing to you, but it would be no surprise if you took your first few T-6 rides and said fuck that to the Gs, airsickness, etc. Just speaking from what I've seen.

[Guest Miclhstrase]

At this point, you should be happy to fly any REAL plane (reference the various UAV bashing threads). Admittedly I am very happy to have gone 38s and heading towards a fighter (*crosses fingers*), but at the same time to say you'd rather just not fly for the AF if it meant flying a C-17, C-130, etc. is stupid IMO. Personally I would be disappointed for a bit if all of the sudden I had to go fly a "heavy", but I guarantee I'd get over it quickly and have fun. It sure beats the hell out of any desk job or getting paid 0.69$/hr to fly for some small regional.

Happens all the time. It's just about the norm for every cadet/dude in HS/college to want to fly fighters, but I bet about 75% change their mind once they start UPT. You don't really know what you want until you get a small taste of it. Keep your mind open...F-16s may be the coolest thing to you, but it would be no surprise if you took your first few T-6 rides and said ###### that to the Gs, airsickness, etc. Just speaking from what I've seen.

You're right. I honestly wouldn't mind flying UAV's despite how much people bash them. I'd enjoy supporting our troops from above, and hey, the UAV's are armed. Same with the C-130, I've seen the air support they can provide and would be happy flying one. I am sure the C130 is one of the more competitive heavy slots.

Still though, I'm shooting for that F16 slot.

[Ill Destructor]

Long way to go, dude. Don't even worry about it. It will have been three years from the time I started my application to OTS to when I actually start UPT. Three fvcking years. Hopefully you'll fare better.

[Guest ASUcadet]

That's good advice. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong. I should really first make sure my vision is on par, otherwise I should just give up now. Last I checked I was 20/50 and 20/40, but maybe my vision got worse, I don't know. Well if I do well on my AFOQT, I'll get some flight hours to see if I even like flying to begin with. If all that goes well I'll apply to OTS and an pilot slot, and if I get both, then I'll make my decision. I don't see how it can hurt me just going through the steps though.

I noticed you're an ASU student, what major and what year? I'm a junior chemical engineering major. Do you know who I can talk to around here about all of this stuff? I'm having trouble getting in contact with the Tempe recruiter, and I've exchanged e-mails with whoever leads the AFROTC at ASU in the past, but not recently.

How was that F16 ride?

Hey man, I'm in civil engineering and I'll be graduating in May '09. Check out this web site: http://afrotc.asu.edu/. It'd probably be best if you just walk in and talk to the cadre. They'll give you straight-shooting, no-BS advice about being an officer. I would steer away from enlisted recruiters because they have been known to lie and say whatever they can to get you to enlist (which is much different than being an officer... enlisted can't be pilots or navs in the AF). The Air Force officers who run the detachment (AKA cadre) typically show up around 0600 and leave at 4 pm, but you might want to call ahead to see if there's someone you can talk to because they have meetings/events throughout the day. Also, if you PM me your info I can show you around the det.

As far as vision, the last I heard was that the Air Force automatically waivers you if your vision is better than 20/70. Any worse and you will probably get a waiver, but if it's much worse then you'll need to get LASIK or PRK.

The F-16 ride was awesome. It's more like being in the back seat of a car when someone is doing donuts as opposed to being on an intense roller coaster. Also, anything above 6 Gs starts to hurt. I really enjoyed it, but it was completely different from what I imagined. I got airsick from orbiting in the clouds as opposed to pulling Gs, but apparently that's the norm. One of the things I've realized with my limited flying experience (about 90 hours) is that every type of flying has its own challenges and it's all uniquely fun. Comparing fighters to C-130s is like comparing race cars to ATVs.

[spaw2001]

I just wanted to reiterate what these guys have said above. UPT is an experience that you need to go through yourself to really understand what you want or what you are best suited to fly. I spent 1.5 yrs at Nellis around all the fighters and was absolutely convinced that I wanted to fly fighters. When you get to UPT though a series of factors to include: effort, IPs, skill, luck, weather, checkrides, class competition etc... factor in what you get at track select. You have less control than you think. That seems like a scary thought, but not really. I ended up going to heavies and got a C-17 and I am telling you, you will love whatever you end up getting and almost everyone gets what they deserve.

[Guest Miclhstrase]

I just wanted to reiterate what these guys have said above. UPT is an experience that you need to go through yourself to really understand what you want or what you are best suited to fly. I spent 1.5 yrs at Nellis around all the fighters and was absolutely convinced that I wanted to fly fighters. When you get to UPT though a series of factors to include: effort, IPs, skill, luck, weather, checkrides, class competition etc... factor in what you get at track select. You have less control than you think. That seems like a scary thought, but not really. I ended up going to heavies and got a C-17 and I am telling you, you will love whatever you end up getting and almost everyone gets what they deserve.

That sums things up pretty good. I hope your right in that I will love what I fly wherever I end up. This is a very important decision for me. Everyone has been expecting me to go to MIT or something and get my Ph.D. For the last 4 years I have been planning on going to grad school and that's where my focus has been in my on and off campus activities. All the research I've been doing will really be useless for my application to OTS.

At least I can fall back on something and be happy if things don't work out with the Air Force, right? I'm getting ahead of myself anyways, and off-topic.

Say I don't change my mind and I decide I still want to fly jets. It's still mostly out of my hands? It's not like I can set a goal here and achieve it through hard work and dedication?

[brabus]

You can always have a goal and work your ass off to achieve it...that's just about how every one of us gets to wings. No one's saying you're totally screwed out of flying fighters, but as Spaw said, there is stuff such as class composition, check pilots, IPs, weather, and simply what's in your track select/assignment drop when you get it. Those things you cannot control. Like I said before, attitude and effort is what you CAN control...give it your all in both of those and I will say there's a 98% chance you're going to end up where you should be, whether that be fighters, heavies, helos or 130's/U-28/NSA.

[RangerMateo]

Heard from someone that the VN 0806 class was officially put on notice that there could be some Preds coming down the pipe to them and that those would be a one tour assignment. Anyone verify this here or at other bases?

If that's the case, is that something that will stick through the FY09 classes, or is that just to account for the "excess" 38 drops that the mid-late FY08 classes got...?

Edited April 16, 2008 by RangerMateo

[Guest LittleMan]

It would have been nice if the AF made this change 3-4 years ago when I had/lost an ANG viper slot when I found out that Lasik was not approved back then, it was only in trials.

I guess I was acting on old information... thanks for calling me on it before anyone was mislead.

Cheers!

[Guest Miclhstrase]

I guess I was acting on old information... thanks for calling me on it before anyone was mislead.

Cheers!

Because this thread is going in a lot of different directions when it's main purpose was to discuss track selects and drops, how pilots can improve there chances at getting what they want, and statistics, I thought I'd double post the statistics I compiled on the tracks and drops thread from the general discussion. I hope this is ok.

I did not differentiate between AD and guard because not everyone who posted numbers did so; I did excluded all international numbers. I also excluded numbers if the post said "and the rest were T-1's."

Here is the summary:

TOTALS

T-38

152 23.28%

T-1

374 57.27%

T-44

88 13.48%

UH-1

39 5.97%

total: 653

[Jenkspaz]

Revival: I know this thread's been dead for a few months now, but I figured it would be a perfect place for my question. While looking at all of the track selections and drops from another thread in General Discussion, I've noticed some guys include guard drops and some don't. My question is: when it comes down to specific class track numbers, are guard studs included in the number of total tracks or not?

Example: My class is XL 10-14. Say the AF is only going to hand out five T-38 tracks for my class. There is one guard stud from an F-16 unit. All he has to do is graduate in the top 50% of the class and he's got a -38, which is standard. Does this mean that there are now only four -38 slots for the rest of us AD guys, or are there now 6 total -38 tracks for the class, because the guard guy doesn't affect the AD numbers?

I've talked to a couple of people about this and have searched for a long time, but I can't seem to get anywhere. Thanks for the help.

[flyski32]

I think guard numbers are separate, similar issue wrt foreign STUDs and Navy/Marines.

only going to hand out five T-38 tracks for my class

5 38s? Try 2, 3 max.

[Jenkspaz]

5 38s? Try 2, 3 max.

I know, I know. Pipe dream. But who knows, maybe some wood knocking (STS) and they'll start throwin' 'em at us. Anyone else know for sure?

[brabus]

Guard is separate and in no way affect AD drops. The Guard pays the AF for the 38 slot in a basic sense, so it really is just an "extra" 38 slot owned by the Guard. Now if the Guard guy doesn't make the 50% cut, I'm not entirely sure, but I swear I've read of an AD guy possibly being able to take that slot. Don't quote me on that though.

[Jenkspaz]

Perfect. That's all I needed to know. I thought that's how it worked, but wasn't 100%. Thanks guys.

[Guest AFlyer55]

For those who are convinced that they want to fly fighters or otherwise die a violent, painful death, I did the math the other day while talking to one of my buddies. Once you start UPT these days, you have on average a 13% chance of ending up in a T-38 (3 -38s per average class size of 24). You have a 4% chance of getting a fighter (average 1 fighter of any type per class). And that is just calculated from when you actually start UPT. The point is that if you want the pilot slot, you need to open your minds to flying something other than a fighter or be severely disappointed by the cards life hands you. Have your goals, but keep your mind open.

[Jenkspaz]

For those who are convinced that they want to fly fighters or otherwise die a violent, painful death, I did the math the other day while talking to one of my buddies. Once you start UPT these days, you have on average a 13% chance of ending up in a T-38 (3 -38s per average class size of 24). You have a 4% chance of getting a fighter (average 1 fighter of any type per class). And that is just calculated from when you actually start UPT. The point is that if you want the pilot slot, you need to open your minds to flying something other than a fighter or be severely disappointed by the cards life hands you. Have your goals, but keep your mind open.

I would wager that the majority of us would be happy to fly whatever we got. Of course we might be disappointed at first if we didn't get a fighter, but ultimately we would be stoked just to fly something for the AF. You should have said "For those who are convinced that they ARE GOING to fly fighters..." I for one think that the idea that one cannot get a fighter anymore is complete bullshit. I've talked to people that really want fighters but are now convinced that they have to put their #2 as their #1 on their dream sheet, because they have it in their heads that their goal is unattainable. If you REALLY want fighters, go for it! IMO, it would be much better to try for it and not get it than to ###### out and only shoot for your second choice. What's to say you wouldn't have gotten a fighter if you really tried?

[Guest L Unit]

I love statistics. Can you calculate for me the following:

What is the chance that I will wash out? (Did you take that into effect in class size - starting vs. graduating population?)

What is the chance that I will wash out of IFF/RTU. Can you then recalculate the chance that I will 'end up' in fighters?

What is the chance that I will be flying 'a cargo plane full of rubber dog shit out of Hong Kong?'

I'm totally kidding. Except maybe about the rubber poop.

[Guest ski&fly fast]

For those who are convinced that they want to fly fighters or otherwise die a violent, painful death, I did the math the other day while talking to one of my buddies. Once you start UPT these days, you have on average a 13% chance of ending up in a T-38 (3 -38s per average class size of 24). You have a 4% chance of getting a fighter (average 1 fighter of any type per class). And that is just calculated from when you actually start UPT. The point is that if you want the pilot slot, you need to open your minds to flying something other than a fighter or be severely disappointed by the cards life hands you. Have your goals, but keep your mind open.

I say screw it, if you want a fighter- then only think fighter and nothing else. the chips are going to fall where they will, but saying you have to open your mind to something else is slightly admitting failure before you even start-- If you have one specific goal and only think about attaining that one goal, I would be willing to bet your chances are more likely of getting what you want by staying focused and keeping your eye on the prize.

[Jenkspaz]

I say screw it, if you want a fighter- then only think fighter and nothing else. the chips are going to fall where they will, but saying you have to open your mind to something else is slightly admitting failure before you even start-- If you have one specific goal and only think about attaining that one goal, I would be willing to bet your chances are more likely of getting what you want by staying focused and keeping your eye on the prize.

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