Yeah, I feel my odds are pretty solid. I had my rank order: CSO, ABM, RPA and Pilot. Qualified for all, but with the ability for me to retire in less than 10 years I like to keep my options open. I also worked for a CSO and ABM previously and drank all of the kool-aid. I was 1 of 1 out of my Wing, my AFOQT scores are decent and the whole package should def be competitive for CSO or ABM. Knowing that the rank order holds significant weight helps as well since they want to push people into career fields that want to do it, instead of pushing people who put CSO number 4 into it knowing that they will likely decline it.
I had to get a ETP for age and was approved for all Rated Career Fields and would be more than happy to go to the operational world in ANY AFSC. This was a major factor in putting CSO and ABM 1 and 2 as well. I have a 64 PCSM and do not have a PPL so I know that puts me below those who are usually selected for Pilot already.