BLUF: UPT bases are drowning in students. Training squadrons and mx can’t keep up. Expect delays to continue to lengthen.
Currently in phase 3, so can’t speak to the current delays in getting UPT dates, but for reference I graduated OTS in Aug 18 and didn’t start UPT til Jan 19 (Guard guy).
As for the delays at UPT, they are very real. Only 1 student from my original class graduated on time. Most of have rolled back 5 classes on the T1 side and 11 classes on the 38 side. T6s (phase 2) is taking 6+ weeks longer than planned to complete. I averaged 1 sortie a week for the entire first block of T6 training. Once T6 complete, current wait times are 3 months to start phase 3 academics for T1s and 4-6 months for 38s. Then expect to be rolled back 1,2,possibly 3 times once your on the flight line due to Mx, wx, scheduling, syllabus restraints, etc.
The excessive numbers of students being pushed through the pipeline is slowing down everything. T6s are more reliable and better able to handle the increased sortie numbers, but still unable to keep students flying in regular intervals. T1s and 38s are much less reliable resulting in the ever increasing wait time from phase 2 to 3. I can only imagine that wait time will continue to increase until the pipeline is slowed down to allow the squadrons to catch up.
Guard/reserve folks typically make out better in terms of getting washed back in phase 3 as they usually have follow on dates quickly after planned grad UPT grad dates. Active duty folks on the other hand are first to get washed back and do frequently. We had 8 washed back from our original phase 3 class in the first month, and expect to have 3-4 more before washed back before our planned grad date.