Hate to beat a dead horse if no one is interested, but just some friendly advice to do a little reading up on the repo market, interest rates, inflation and what this means for any savings/investments you have. 

FIVE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS.

Quote

Dec 12

 

The New York Federal Reserve Bank has announced that it will be dumping a previously unfathomable amount of money into the liquidity market beginning Friday. Fed’s statement reads:

 

“In accordance with the most recent [Federal Open Market Committee] directive, the Desk will conduct repo operations to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures around year end that could adversely affect policy implementation.

 

“The Desk will continue to offer two-week term repo operations twice per week, four of which span year end. In addition, the Desk will also offer another longer-maturity term repo operation that spans year end. The amount offered in this operation will be at least $50 billion.

 

“Overnight repo operations will continue to be held each day. On December 31, 2019 and January 2, 2020, the overnight repo offering will increase to at least $150 billion. In addition, on December 30, 2019, the Desk will offer a $75 billion repo that settles on December 31, 2019 and matures on January 2, 2020.

 

“The Desk intends to adjust the timing and amounts of repo operations as needed to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation, consistent with the directive from the FOMC.”

 

Translation: The New York Fed will continue to offer two-week term repurchase operations twice per week. Four of those will span the end of the year. It will also offer one more longer-term “repo” operation that also spans the end of the year. That operation will be at least $50 billion.

 

Also, in order to prevent an avalanche of liquidity issues to end the year, the Fed will continue its daily repo operations through the end of the year. The amount that will be offered each night will be increased to $150 billion. Additionally, there will be a $50 billion term repo, followed by daily $35 billion repo offerings, which will total $365 billion.

 

Adding in $50 billion for the expanded overnight repo, and another $60 billion in T-bill purchases, the total injection in the next 30 days will be $500 billion. Added to the current Fed balance sheet, by mid-January, it will hold more than its all-time high of $4.5 trillion.

 

5 hours ago, war007afa said:

Whatever job you're doing, I either want it for the flexibility to enjoy a Monday night like you are...

OR I really don't want it if Monday's are that bad!

Either way, cheers!

 

CHeers! Long layover in Vegas. Didn't feel like walking the strip so I was enjoying the happy hour 1/2 price special on 1 Liter drafts at the Hofbrauhaus. The Deep State hasn't called me yet. 😄

 

15 hours ago, SocialD said:

Incompetence at best...at worse, indifference... I'm seriously looking forward to the day I have 3 years time-in-grade.

I just hit 3 year O5 TIG. The next day I did the few outprocessing checklist items that I figured would keep me out of trouble and called it good.
I definitely miss the fellas, but I have never felt more free and less stressed. I was worried I’d have regrets, now I think I waited too long. (22 yrs.)

I’m only a curious spectator now. Not my monkeys, not my circus anymore.

42 minutes ago, SocialD said:

Another thing we've found is that, on the additional AFTPs, we're all being taxed between 38% and 49%.  You can't make this shit up.  I'm expecting their response to be "you'll just get it back with your taxes..."  

Is this a policy or a mistake?

Or both?

Help me out here. I've probably been listening to way too much Ray Dalio, Peter Schiff, George Gammon and others. The end is near! Tell me why I shouldn't pull out of the market tomorrow, build a gold vault under my house, and stock up on ammo based on the following ideas trapped in my head:

- $23 Trillion in debt and the Federal government under Trump continues to add $1Trillion per year when the Federal Government owns only about $4T in assets.

- Growth in Banking/Finance/Services industries accounts for the growth in GDP while manufacturing continues to decline. We're consuming way more than we're producing.

- Economy is 70% consumer spending and consumers are more in debt than ever. Home, Auto, Student, and Credit Cart Debt are all time highs during a time of record prosperity. 

- On top of that, the individual taxpayer share of government debt is approx $140,000.

- Quantitative Easing is flooding the system with dollar bills that will drive massive inflation. That inflation will force lenders to raise rates. A 1% raise in interest will cost the government an additional $200 Billion per year in debt maintenance. Artificially keeping rates low during inflation is effectively stealing the savings of you and I.

- The market is propped up by cheap money flooding into corporate buybacks and bad businesses whose shares are priced according to revenue, not profitability.

- We're going to see some social unrest before and after the election. Trump won't win. To mitigate the anti-capitalist social unrest (already occurring elsewhere), the next socialist-leaning democratic administration won't cut benefits, they'll raise taxes, print money, and fuck everything up.

Can anyone make the argument that everything is just fine?

 

 

The part where it was found that she had rented a full size vehicle in lieu of a compact vehicle was some top notch investigative work.

14 hours ago, matmacwc said:

A glowing review, complete with a prediction of a fast changing automotive industry, 6 outta 10. This man EPRs.

I just watched the Mandalorian with the kids last night.

-#3/10 StarWars stories. Lauded by Home/CC "Outstanding!" No PC BS. 98% compliance w/orgnl series.

13 hours ago, Skitzo said:

 

Ugh... wow. Bad timing. I just changed my signature block to Hanlons Razor about a week ago?

 

Jesus that is bad. So sorry. Q-3 for low SA stand by for changing it back.

 

No offense meant.

 

 

 

Ah, I figured it couldn't have been intended the way it looked at first glance. No prob.

Did a herc deployment last year. All the austere locations asked us for was pizza and energy drinks.

if you can arrange payment, the tac airlift squadrons would be happy to order, pick up, and deliver.

19 hours ago, Skitzo said:

Absolute tragedy, freak accident. Just awful.



"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

I don’t understand the relevance of the quote here.

16 hours ago, pawnman said:

Am I the only one who wants Trump, Biden, and the Clintons investigated in relation to this whole Ukraine thing?

I don't care what letter you have after your name... If you used your government position for personal gain, I want you prosecuted.

I would also like everyone held to a high standard of conduct because we want decent human beings making decisions for us. But let's face facts, that's not how high-level government operates. For many (most?) at that level, the ethics and values that you and I conduct our lives in accordance with are, for them, arbitrary boundaries and obstacles to the pursuit of wealth and power while only being useful as weapons against political opponents.

I would like for a room full of people like you to investigate and hold Trump, Biden, Clinton, and all the others to the same standards. But to reach a position where you'd have the power to do that, you would have had to compromise your own principles every step of the way. Only the corrupt can investigate the corrupt.

And Epstein didn't kill himself.

Penske buying the Indy Motor Speedway and IndyCar is huge news. Tony George effectively destroyed open wheel racing in the US and now, perhaps there's great chance it can make a comeback.

https://www.espn.com/racing/indycar/story/_/id/28004980/roger-penske-buys-indianapolis-motor-speedway-indycar-series

On 11/3/2019 at 8:03 AM, HossHarris said:

I can almost guarantee there’s a pilot in now that will face a RIF in the future. The only constant is change ....

Reminded me of a recent trip with a former Soviet fighter pilot. The commander showed up one day and told everyone "Go home and don't come back."  They were shocked.  "What do we do?"  "Whatever you want."

There's zero chance of that happening here. Just an interesting story about pilots who didn't expect it to happen.

"There's no difference between us and them."  AF just found a whole bunch of people willing to fly lower pay without bonuses or incentives.

Quote

‘Rank doesn’t matter, only ability:’ First all-enlisted crew operates RQ-4 Global Hawk in theater

An all-enlisted remotely piloted aircraft crew manned the RQ-4 Global Hawk out of Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates last month — signifying the first time a team composed only of enlisted airmen operated the aircraft downrange.  “Enlisted or officer, the responsibilities of the pilot are the exact same – safe and legal operation of the RQ-4 in international and national airspace,” said Master Sgt. Michael in an Air Force news release. “We are all trained and expected to demonstrate proficiency at all times. There’s no difference between ‘us and them.’ We are pilots, plain and simple.”

Michael, the 380th Expeditionary Operations Group Detachment 1 operations superintendent and pilot, said the Sept. 13 operation highlighted enlisted airmen’s competence piloting the unarmed reconnaissance drone. “It shows that with high level training, rank does not matter, only ability,” Michael said.  It’s not typical for all-enlisted crew to occur within Detachment 1, although it has happened before, the Air Force said.

The Air Force first announced in December 2015 that it would open up flying the RQ-4 Global Hawk to enlisted airmen. The policy change designated the first time enlisted airmen could pilot aircraft since World War II, when the service was still part of the Army.  In May 2017, the first three enlisted airmen graduated from undergraduate RPA training at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph Air Force Base in Texas. By 2020, the service says it is aiming to have a total of 100 enlisted RPA pilots. 

According to the Air Force, it was “only a matter of time” that an all-enlisted crew of RPA professionals would conduct operations in theater.
“This demonstrates the capabilities and leadership of the enlisted force, both in preparing the mission and executing it,” Michael said.

 

7 hours ago, waveshaper said:

Update on this particular piece of the U.S. Withdraw From Syria Policy/Puzzle (When/Status = TBD); IMHO, we will probably not use Incirlik or Guam this round. Most likely these Kurd refugees will fly directly from Iraqi Kurdistan to the USA and I wouldn't be surprised if Erbil is used as the main airport hub for the movement of these folks.

"Bill introduced to give special immigrant visas to Kurds who helped US in Syria:"

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/468046-dem-introduces-bipartisan-bill-to-give-kurds-who-helped-us-in-syria-special

"A Democratic congressman, with support from a bipartisan group of co-sponsors, has introduced a bill to provide special immigrant visas to Syrian Kurds who partnered with the United States in the fight against ISIS."

"The bill would give special immigrant status to Kurds and other Syrians who partnered with the U.S. government in Syria, as well as their spouses and children. It would authorize 4,000 special immigrant visas for qualifying Syrians per year."

 

Recently took an Uber ride in San Francisco with an Afghani interpreter who was given asylum status for him and his family a few years ago. Amazing conversation. I'd place his patriotism far above 90% of the people we drove past (which may not be saying much).

Wow. Brutal....

 

6 hours ago, isuguy1234 said:

Anybody use the tricare retired reserve plan for health insurance before u turn 60?  Seems like my airline insurance is cheaper/similar depending on which plan, but just wondering how people like the tricare?  Or maybe no one uses it?

Reserve select was around $220 for me, the retired reserve is almost $1100 with higher copays. It’s insane! I’d wager almost any airline plan is more reasonable.

Here’s a good tool too compare tricare plans: 

https://tricare.mil/Costs/HealthPlanCosts/TRR

38 minutes ago, JBueno said:

Which conclusions?

#4 was reported to have mag problems. #3 as well as #4 were feathered. Fuel was not suspect.

The implication being an engine may have been inadvertently shut down, but there is no way to know for sure.

 

7 minutes ago, HuggyU2 said:

NTSB Preliminary report is out:  https://app.ntsb.gov/pdfgenerator/ReportGeneratorFile.ashx?EventID=20191002X11326&AKey=1&RType=HTML&IType=MA&fbclid=IwAR2n3Fk-HkfU6T_b7gWwoQEH68r_ggWP1yAaOme9EJXVyG8jZHQU0V9Glek

Generates conclusions no one wants to admit to thinking.  Ugly.  

 

Yes, it does. Very sad.

6 hours ago, jazzdude said:

And yet pretty much no one volunteers for AFPAK Hands... Which is focused on building up those 2 countries for the long term so we don't have to be there.

Talk is cheap. Someone eventually has to pay the bill.

Exactly. You've paid more than your fair share of the bill and I've paid mine, as well as most of the people on this forum. When I read "we" should be staying continuously engaged in Syria, it seems "you" is implied. Some people are tired of being threatened with the worst possible outcome being realized if we suddenly end our 18+ year subscription to the Middle East Clusterf^&* Vacation Club. There's war when we're present, there will be war when we're absent. If Russia and Turkey want to wear that anchor around their neck for a change, good.

34 minutes ago, raimius said:

Well, the SDF's PR campaign has definitely started:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/13/kurds-assad-syria-russia-putin-turkey-genocide/?fbclid=IwAR2uZvM6YZieLFJAWJF7S5x0WvyB0NqnFKCIH3bMJR_NxLmkvsE2rwItJic

He seems like a reasonable guy concerned about the welfare of people and families.

Perhaps he could start building the refugee camp for the 3.5 million Syrian refugees Turkey is about to move back into Syria.

There was an article on Drudge yesterday (not seeing it today) interviewing one of the ship based radar dudes involved in this incident and others. He says after upgrading the ships' radars with a new technology/capability, they're seeing these things often. 80K feet down to the surface in a matter of seconds and back up. At first, they thought it was a glitch in the new tech, but what they're seeing on radar is corroborated by pilots.

Yeah, I know... (eyeroll).

I don't believe, I don't not believe, I've never seen anything. I just don't know and don't spend much time thinking about it.

However, I watched the latest JRE podcast this morning and I had never heard of this guy.

If I want to hear a UFO story, I want to hear it from a pilot. Cmdr. David Fravor tells an amazing one.

EDIT: This is just the first part of the podcast. The full podcast is pretty good if you have almost 2 hours.

 

5 hours ago, propflux said:

His attorney, Jeremiah “Jake” Denton IV, declined to comment.

 

Anyone else notice this?   Grandson?

Need to watch the trial to see if he blinks Morse Code for "G-U-I-L-T-Y".