16 minutes ago, war007afa said:

Look, I'm all for liberty like the next guy.  However, where do we draw the line?  I have the right to survive and protect my family.  Should that right for my potentially-immunocompromised wife be infringed upon because some jackass wants to play disc golf with his buddies in the park down the way while coughing all over the place as he conducts a shelf check at Harris Teeter on the way there? This shit lives for days when it leaves your body; you may not even know you're touching a contaminated surface.

The concept of letting local officials create local policy works, except we live in an open border society and there's no vector control.  So without a uniformity on restrictions in order to limit the amount of movement of infected persons (who may not even know they're infected, it seems), hope of allowing this thing to die off wanes in the name of not letting the gubment take my rights. If I don't like the fact that Location X has strict disease containment measures, I can just hop in the family roadster and go down to Location Y where I can do whatever I want without regard to what harm I am causing to others. Every location has countless examples of people completely ignoring restrictions and infecting others (to include flippantly trying to spread the disease, in some extreme cases).

No one I know wants to cede their liberties.  But there are enough people out there who are literally killing others because they don't have the self control or sense of community to protect those they share a locality with by staying inside.

It sounds as if you're saying visiting the local park or Harris Teeter for groceries is tantamount to murder.

That's why I say I don't like the direction this has taken.

9 hours ago, Guardian said:

Interpretation?

I don't know shit about shit, but here's my valuable interpretation:

The reactor crew is highly trained, specialized, and not easy to replace. As they began to get sick and incapacitated with the virus, the Navy had a 5 billion dollar aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor potentially stuck in the middle of the Pacific that no one else was qualified to operate. The ship medical staff estimated there would be 50 deaths on the ship if they didn't quarantine/evacuate.

The senior officers aboard the ship all conferred and wanted to sign the letter to the Navy leadership, but were denied by Crozier and he took all the responsibility .

 

I've been off my property maybe 4 times in the last month. (Airline trips have cancelled). I'm taking it seriously, but I really don't like where this is headed. This is what I'm seeing more and more:

1. "My assessment of the risk is more accurate than your assessment of the risk."

2. "The level of risk I'm willing to accept is more appropriate than the level of risk you're willing to accept."

All that is fine. Those are debates that can be had and while there will never be a consensus, we might be able to educate, change a few minds, find some middle ground, and go about living our lives the way we choose. The disturbing part is where we allow this to happen:

3. "I have assessed the risk, determined the appropriate risk mitigation strategy, and am unilaterally imposing it on you."

The Governors of Kentucky and Michigan immediately spring to mind. I never would have thought so many Americans would enthusiastically cede this much power and control over our daily lives as we've seen the last month. Maybe this will blow over, and we'll go right back to Dec 2019. Or maybe we will end up with National immunization credentials, pandemic cell phone tracking, digital health records, digital currency Federal Reserve bank accounts, online voting, etc. Tin foil hat? Maybe. But it's all been proposed.

 

"Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty." - Jefferson.

35 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Complaining Checklist

So I've been keeping up with my airline's pilot forum, doing what any newb should do, stay quiet and listen.  But I'm getting quite tired of the "us vs union vs them vs us," "pay me," and etc. attitudes.  And tired of the "gross mismanagement" talk like anyone would ever fathom that air traffic would fall 95% for months to come.  I've already concluded that there will be displacements and furloughs this fall, barring any further gov't assistance (but now they want to change this latest deal to 70% grant/30% loan).  I'd love to see a 3 Musketeer attitude, but way too much hate/distrust/anger/negativity.  I think I'll look into that truck driving school... oh wait, no schools open.  Day trading? Nope, I'll lose the rest of it trying that.  Instagram Influencer, screw that, I can't pout my face that much and not enough photoshop skillz.  Sport bitching?  Nah, season was cancelled.  Beer light has been on the last 2 weeks solid, which is nice.  Oh well.

Venting - Complete

⬛⬛⬛⬛

If it makes you feel any better, all pilot union forums are more or less the same across airlines and time periods. Management sucks. Scheduling sucks. Hotels suck. Dispatchers suck. etc. They all said similar things prior to the current crisis, and always will in the future. Everyone talks a big game on the forum, but everyone still shows up to drive the bus for a company they think they could run better.

Pay your dues. Vote. Know the contract. When it comes time to picket, go show your face. Want me to wear a special union lanyard? Fine. Whatever happens in the industry is going to happen independent of what is said on the forums. I occasionally go months without checking the forum. When I do, I might glean a tiny fraction of usable information, but the rest is noise.

17 minutes ago, drewpey said:

The report that produced that 500M number wasn't doing so to advocate for opening up the economies.  It's largely focused on developing countries, which are generally unaffected by our virus responses.  It also goes on to advocate universal healthcare and social safety nets that would undoubtedly ease much of the suffering we see today.

link

What a novel idea: From each country according to its ability, to each country according to its needs. Imagine the entire world united under one governing body to provide dignity and "universal social protections" for every person. Sounds good to me.

The virus has hit San Antonio especially hard. 10,000 emaciated and poverty-stricken Texans with nowhere to turn beg for free food while the providers struggle and are unable to feed them without help from the National Guard. Looks like a scene from the Great Depression, doesn't it?

https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Thousands-hit-hard-by-coronavirus-pandemic-s-15189948.php

On 4/7/2020 at 6:57 PM, Sua Sponte said:

A former C-130 driver I was stationed with at Little Rock, now with JetBlue, died today because of COVID. Fuck this thing.

I knew Kevin as well from college. Terrible news.

9 hours ago, nsplayr said:

This is what it sounds like when you know you done fucked up.

Unbelievable. Let's count the F2ckups:

1. Navy apparently blows off Crozier's request for assistance.

2. Crozier blasts an email regarding the ship's readiness, most-likely knowing it would get picked up by the press and thinking it would add leverage to his cause.

3. Navy chain of command breaks-down, Crozier gets fired from the top.

4. SECNAV visits the ship and off-the-cuff riffs his tough-love "real talk" over the ship's intercom.

5. SECNAV issues an embarrassing public apology.

What's next? Our enemies and allies have both got to be asking, "WTF?"

 

 

2 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Curious as to why the firing went all the way to acting SECNAV.  There's a slew of military chain of command (you know, the one Crozier was relieved for ignoring) admirals who could've done the deed.

Why did this go up to a temporary political appointee?

 

How does the Air Force chain of command handle it when lower ranks elevate issues, ask for changes that involves a small amount of risk in judgement? Dodge, Delay, Deny, Defend, and Punt.

Does anyone think Crozier's first attempt at getting resolution was a blast unsecure email?

Crozier for President? Kidding, but the parallels in this instance are fascinating. Here is a letter written by T. Roosevelt. He also circulated it among the press.

Quote

MAJOR-GENERAL SHAFTER. SIR: In a meeting of the general and medical officers called by you at the Palace this morning we were all, as you know, unanimous in our views of what should be done with the army. To keep us here, in the opinion of every officer commanding a division or a brigade, will simply involve the destruction of thousands.

There is no possible reason for not shipping practically the entire command North at once. Yellow-fever cases are very few in the cavalry division, where I command one of the two brigades, and not one true case of yellow fever has occurred in this division, except among the men sent to the hospital at Siboney, where they have, I believe, contracted it. But in this division there have been 1,500 cases of malarial fever. Hardly a man has yet died from it, but the whole command is so weakened and shattered as to be ripe for dying like rotten sheep, when a real yellow-fever epidemic instead of a fake epidemic, like the present one, strikes us, as it is bound to do if we stay here at the height of the sickness season, August and the beginning of September.

Quarantine against malarial fever is much like quarantining against the toothache. All of us are certain that as soon as the authorities at Washington fully appreciate the condition of the army, we shall be sent home. If we are kept here it will in all human possibility mean an appalling disaster, for the surgeons here estimate that over half the army, if kept here during the sickly season, will die.

This is not only terrible from the standpoint of the individual lives lost, but it means ruin from the standpoint of military efficiency of the flower of the American army, for the great bulk of the regulars are here with you. The sick list, large though it is, exceeding four thousand, affords but a faint index of the debilitation of the army. Not ten per cent are fit for active work.

Six weeks on the North Maine coast, for instance, or elsewhere where the yellow-fever germ cannot possibly propagate, would make us all as fit as fighting-cocks, as able as we are eager to take a leading part in the great campaign against Havana in the fall, even if we are not allowed to try Porto Rico. We can be moved North, if moved at once, with absolute safety to the country, although, of course, it would have been infinitely better if we had been moved North or to Puerto Rico two weeks ago. If there were any object in keeping us here, we would face yellow fever with as much indifference as we faced bullets. But there is no object.

The four immune regiments ordered here are sufficient to garrison the city and surrounding towns, and there is absolutely nothing for us to do here, and there has not been since the city surrendered. It is impossible to move into the interior. Every shifting of camp doubles the sick rate in our present weakened condition, and, anyhow, the interior is rather worse than the coast, as I have found by actual reconnoissance.

Our present camps are as healthy as any camps at this end of the island can be. I write only because I cannot see our men, who have fought so bravely and who have endured extreme hardship and danger so uncomplainingly, go to destruction without striving so far as lies in me to avert a doom as fearful as it is unnecessary and undeserved.

Yours respectfully, THEODORE ROOSEVELT, Colonel Commanding Second Cavalry Brigade.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/04/theodore-roosevelt-captain-followed-in-footsteps-of-ships-namesake-by-writing-bombshell-letter/

Damn. Unreal. Chilling...

USS Teddy Roosevelt "urgently asking" for help.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6821571/TR-COVID-19-Assistance-Request.pdf

 

7. Conclusion. Decisive action is required. Removing the majority of personnel from a
deployed US. nuclear aircraft carrier and isolating them for two weeks may seem like an
extraordinary measure. A portion of the crew (approximately 10%) would have to stay aboard to 

run the reactor plant, sanitize the ship, ensure security, and provide for contingency response to
emergencies. This is a necessary risk. It will enable the carrier and air wing to get back
underway as quickly as possible while ensuring the health and safety of our Sailors. Keeping
over 4,000 young men and women on board the TR is an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with
those Sailors entrusted to our care.

There are challenges associated with securing individualized lodging for our crew. This will
require a political solution but it is the right thing to do. We are not at war. Sailors do not need
to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to pr0perly take care of our most trusted asset our
Sailors.

Request all available resources to ?nd NAVADMIN and CDC compliant quarantine rooms for
my entire crew as soon as possible.

 

7 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

So prisoners are being released due to the crowded conditions in a jail increasing the spread of this disease yet...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/to-enforce-coronavirus-distancing-police-say-arrests-are-last-resort/ar-BB11XppY?ocid=spartanntp

My longtime friend and neighbor is a vice cop for a medium sized city. Yesterday, his Chief told him to stop taking vacation days, and simply not come to work. He doesn't want any of his guys pursuing those types of crimes then showing up at the station to do the admin processes.

51 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

So where is the balance? Where should the line be drawn to balance individual liberties against the liberty/life of others?

Great points and great questions. My concern is that these curtailing of liberties are so widely and immediately accepted. When it's needed, every instance should be scrutinized and required to have a detailed sunset provision with a very high threshold for renewal.

We need to be very wary of allowing rule by executive order (or rule by decree). Check out today's news from Hungary. WTF:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-in-hungary-viktor-orban-rules-by-decree-indefinitely.html

 

 

27 minutes ago, Tank said:

So now USAA is getting out of the investment business.  I received notification they all of my investment accounts have been switched to Schwab and Victory Capital.  The whole reason I started a Roth IRA and some college IRAs is so that they’re all consolidated.  I guess that’s not the case anymore.  

No more investments, high insurance rates and high loan rates; USAA is really starting to suck!

I have an amount of deposts with USAA. If a multi-billion dollar company with trained and educated investment managers decides that its investment branch is not worth the risk exposure, I for one, am happy that my deposits are safer. I understand the convenience, but I believe it's smarter to diversify your deposits, loans, investments, and insurance across separate companies.

I don't want passive investors telling the active investors at my bank how and when they should be investing, especially in times like these. USAA is better off focusing on it's core business - being a bank.

50 minutes ago, brabus said:

We are absolutely starting to unravel liberty in the name of “safety,” something that has happened many times throughout history and is something that must be fought. 

“History teaches that grave threats to liberty often come in times of urgency, when constitutional rights seem too extravagant to endure.” Nailed it.

 

While I think the probability of this whole thing being engineered toward a desired end is low, I think the probability of law(rule) makers taking advantage of the situation to restrict liberties is high. I recently read that the Patriot Act provisions were once again extended just a couple weeks ago. I'm not saying I disagree with everything in the Patriot Act, but it is still a restriction of liberty. The lesson being: Once these measures are enacted, they often tend to stay enacted. To anyone cheering the Texas travel restrictions by executive order, how long are you willing to sleep in that bed?

The next question being, how to you fight for liberty when your movements are restricted?

1 hour ago, dream big said:

No, we are just tired of New Yorkers and Californians escaping their gutter trash of  states and finding refuge in Texas only to bring their politics (or now Coronavirus) to this state.  FYI I grew up in New York and my parents still live there, it sucks. 

I have a theory that mutual prosperity (for most) was the glue holding this whole thing together. When we lose that, the suspicion, blame, finger-pointing, and devolution into tribalism will threaten to tear the country apart.

6 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

at some point we're gonna have to stand up for the constitution. "hunting down" gtfo. this is america.

You wanna pull those type of stunts? fine. Declare martial law. but us "accepting" some of these "public health measures" is tearing at the fabric of our liberites.

There seems to be an increasing amount of these intrusions being rationalized by this virus situation. Lots of people trying to do the right thing, but there are also many using the crisis for power and money grabs.

What do you get when you cross a loss of liberty with a sudden loss of security and prosperity across an entire nation?

 

10 hours ago, HuggyU2 said:

Call. An. Expert.  This is the guy I called and asked for help many years ago when I was dealing with the same issue:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_F._Wright

 

Second this. I called this guy when I had questions and I felt like he was giving me a PhD in USERRA over the phone. Great stuff, but he gave me a high pressure sales pitch to join the Reserve Officer's Association at the end of the call.

 

Not sure what this means for recently separated or retired.

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1243656134109597702?s=20

 

If you were retiring, no one is going to tell you anything you don't already know about AD. You're not crazy, it's probably a smart move.

Some things to consider:

You've got a seniority number, and that's a benefit only if your airline returns to business as usual. Not all airlines are going to recover from this.

Some airlines are saying that military leave during this time does not accrue toward the USERRA 5 year clock. Talk to your union. Likely not a concern.

This is going to change customer travel behavior for a long time, even if the economy recovers. Necessity is the mother of invention, and people are being forced to figure out how to be productive at work and engage in leisure activities without traveling. Load factors will recover slowly.

On the other hand, this is a massively destabilizing geo-political upset. Get ready for some chaos and long TDYs.

I was a CBM T-1IP a long time ago.  If there were one assignment I could go back to, that's be it. Just floating, fishing, and skiing on the TennTom.

 

 

 

13 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

I’ll accept that risk of public internet scourging. His podcast is genuinely intellectually interesting. Especially the recent episodes on the Covid situation. 

Ok, brother. Here's the deal. I'm not trying to escalate the debate. I'm genuinely trying to wrap my head around this and open to any helpful information. I listened to the first 45 min of podcast #99 with Attia and Hotez. At around the 15 min mark, I came back here to the forum to see if I had the correct podcast.

Not trying to be a dick about this, and perhaps I missed some important information. Maybe I have a confirmation bias. I don't know. You were right, there was a lot of solid, intellectual information in that podcast, but there was absolutely ZERO that could be construed as positive points of optimism. Nothing that indicates we have a grasp on this thing or a workable solution.

Here's just a few notes I took from the doctor:

15:15: "Health systems are already stressed and I'm worried we could see a collapse in a couple weeks. I'm very concerned"

16:15: "The first breakdown is starting to happen with doctors and nurses exhausted and there seems to be a breakdown of trust"

17:45:"This is no longer a disease of the old and infirm. This buzz is catching on among young physicians, and it is highly destabilizing, and they're feeling abandoned."

21:20:  "I don't have an obvious solution to figuring this out (Regarding physician burn-out)"

28:00: "The most disturbing thing I have seen today s that half the hospitalizations are under 54, and about a 3rd between 20-44, and even some under 19."

32:15: "The Federal Government thinks this pandemic will last 18 months. I'm really doubtful we will have a vaccine in 18 months. I think this will be much longer than 18 months."

41:00 "Unless we can find a way to make our hospitals safe and take care of our health care providers, we are going to be in very deep trouble."

I might listen to it. I might not. But if I do and it isn't everything you're telling me it is, I'm gonna be pissed.

7 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

Except you haven’t bothered to listen to a reasonable medical doctor that has a decently respected podcast who is disseminating pretty apolitical unbiased info, so you have no idea what you’re scoffing like a true ignorant jackass with things like models of unchecked exponential infections that doesn’t work because they assume everyone the infected people encounter has never been exposed like a zombie apocalypse. 
 

I’m not telling people to go run around, but I think you should figuratively read a fucking book instead of sowing panic. 

I haven't scoffed at the doctor. I am scoffing at your inability to answer legitimate questions without wholly referencing the thoughts and theories of someone else, and I am able to do it without childish name-calling. Did I not specify that the virus would be impeded when it runs out of people to infect? How exactly is that different from your brilliant discovery of the blatantly obvious fact that it doesn't infect people already exposed. By the way, Herd Immunity isn't exactly a groundbreaking or helpful discovery for those that will cease to exist before it becomes an effectual impediment to the spread.

And I'm "sowing panic" by asking questions on an obscure message board for salty old military pilots?

Don't you think you're being a little "hypoerbolistic" there, Doc?

5 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

No, you painted this as apocalyptic. I have provided you a good source of info, but I’m not spoon feeding you. Especially since you’re so entrenched.   

 

Go listen to the good doctor because he’s pragmatic and you’re as sensational as the 24 hr news cycle. 

If I were entrenched, I'd be making statements. Not asking questions you can't answer. I'm open minded as to how this situation gets rectified, just not interested in banal platitudes like "Don't worry, it'll all get better! Just be positive!"

People are dying and will continue to die at an increasing rate until something stops the progress. That's not being sensational, that's a fact.

But I get your point. I'm wasting my time. Your doctor's thoughts on the matter are your thoughts on the matter.

 

 

2 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Quit being so hypoerbolistic. It’s definitely a serious problem, we get it, but the virus growth does not go unchecked at an asymptote forever. That’s not how it works.
 

There’s a guy named Peter Attia, and he may be Canadian but he’s a doctor. He’s really concerned about this whole thing, but he’s also not trying to paint it as the end of the world like you are. Suggest you go find a brown paper bag, stay an appropriate distance away from other people for a while, and listen to what he has to say. 

 C'mon, dude. The word you're looking for to falsely characterize what I am saying is "hyperbolic".

I am not painting it as the end of the world. It is an open-ended observation/question. I do not know how this ends. You apparently do. Why aren't you explaining how we arrive at the point where this stops being a problem instead of going on to list all the problems with vaccines (further supporting my question)? I could point to a hundred different internet experts and say "they're really smart, listen to them", but wouldn't you rather hear me explain it? 

What is the fix?

"That's now how it works." How does it work? Cliff notes at the very least.

Got home from an airline trip a while back and I've been home sick for about 10 days. Around 3 days of gastrointestinal issues, several days of fever, a "hotness" in my neck and face that wouldn't go away, a slight cough, congestion, etc. I drank water, fixed tractors, tended to the cattle, and aside from taking an occasional nap, I'm fine. I'm not worried about this. No paper bag required. I am worried about my parents and in-laws.

Tell me exactly why you have a problem with me asking what the basis is for the unfounded optimism that "this will all blow over and we'll go back to normal."

2 hours ago, brickhistory said:

Erm, no.

But if the economy is literally wrecked, there's no society to come back to.

And all those nice diseases that the First World thought it had licked (no pun intended) really will come back with a vengeance.  Then you'll see death toll.  China and Russia are continuing with their economies.  I'm betting they haven't contained this thing either.  

Meanwhile, I dig the advice above.  Good article.

Brick, the previous economy was bullshit and wasn't going to last with or without the virus. I posted about it prior to all this happening. Infinite debt spending is a broken system. The value of currency cannot exceed the value of the production it represents indefinitely. You need to worry less about what the Dow is doing and worry more about what our elected leaders are trying to do to us while we're currently distracted.

Don't know what I'm talking about? Go to Forbes.com and search for today's article on "Digital Dollar". I'm not going to tell you what to think about it. Look into it and decide for yourself.