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Negatory

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Posts posted by Negatory

  1. Israel and the West, specifically the US, are hardcore losing the info war. Seeing some of these high school and college age idiots supporting hamas simply because they are being inundated by TikTok propaganda makes me think we actually should do something.

    Susceptibility to disinformation is a legitimate vulnerability of democratic societies. How do you fix that?

  2. 7 hours ago, RegularJoe said:

    I agree with your statement, however this is where I have issue with the people living in Gaza. Hamas oppressed you as residents = agreed / Israel is bombing and destroying your homes and towns because Hamas is imbeded inside your homes, hospitals, stores etc...  You cannot convince me that the residents there "don't know who Hamas players are", then for the sake of your families, town, wellbeing kill those motherf*ckers. If the Palestinians as a people would literally kill these hoodlums hiding in thier towns then bombs wouldn't be falling from above.

     

    If this was happening here, we as residents would be stacking bodies faster than the military to keep ordinance off our heads.  At some point they can't be victims and do nothing about it.

    Real “I’m a tough guy” vibes flowing. Half of Gazas population is under 18 and 70% are 29 or younger. You’re effectively asking blunted, uneducated, young people with no resources - who grew up surrounded by a cult and have been oppressed their whole lives - to just take it into their hands to have an epiphany and “kill the hoodlums.” Oh, it’s also impossible for regular citizens to get weapons, the “hoodlums” are actual savage terrorists, and if you kill them you’ll be likely labeled a terrorist yourself when the narrative is convenient (see the Kurds).

    I’m sure you’re also appalled by all the Texans who know there are drug dealers crossing the border - whose drugs make it deep into America - and those Texans don’t “just kill” those “motherf*ckers.” There are a lot of useless 15 year olds in Texas, tell ya what.

  3. 50 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

    Another idea… yeah I know...

    If standoff and LOS are at a premium then you have to go high to keep in contact with your flying A-69 Terminator UCAVs.

    This violates the author's idea of a cheap and plentiful platform(s) but a high flyer at 60,000' has LOS to over 250 NM.

    https://www.everythingrf.com/rf-calculators/line-of-sight-calculator

    Maybe a compromise and a two seater high flyer that has other mission capes

    Yep, better platform than a light fighter is required for things like this + power + real estate on the aircraft for apertures/radio connectivity. I agree 100%.

  4. 9 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

    Valid points but to discuss the concept the author proposes (light fighters specifically for this role) is that he is cost conscious in the future budget environments. 

    Light fighter fleet with advanced C2 capability for UCAV employment is probably more affordable than large platform C2 fleet, inferring that from his total argument(s) made in his article and I also think it provides a level of redundancy / resilience to the overall mission capability when the shooting starts.  Not to be cold but somebody is likely to get shot down, if you have an inexpensive and many fleet vs an expensive and few fleet that overall capability survives long enough to help the Joint Team achieve the objectives vs being destroyed on Night 1 or 2 and now what? 

    As to our acquisition strategy, we have stumbled but we have to fight over the range of conflicts not just the high end fight.  Not saying you are saying we should only focus on that just stating my belief it is a bitch of a problem to correctly spread resources over constantly changing operational requirements, it's always going to be lagging somewhat.

    I agree with your points. Everything should be somewhat attritable. I guess the biggest issues with little fighter like that are that they won’t the power, cooling, or apertures to make datalinks effective from a long range. And they won’t have the legs to not require tankers everywhere. It’s a tough problem.

  5. If it’s just going to be a stand off datalink enabler, I struggle to see why it should be manned whatsoever, at least for the peer fight. SAMs have made it too threatening to have a 4th Gen or less fighter like platform just chilling outside.

    Why not just go the other way and use a platform like a repurposed B-1/B-21/KC-46. Yes, all of those platforms have issues, but my point is having a larger aircraft that actually doesn’t require 15 air refuelings to get towards the fight could be beneficial. Plus, larger airplane = more cooling, electricity, payload, apertures, and options.

    There are still niches for fighters, I think. The niche is direct platform confrontation with enemy fighters. If you’re just trying to fight a j-20, don’t hand me an unmanned aircraft until AI is ready. But if you’re confident in the abilities of the unmanned platforms, the only thing the mothership needs is fuel and connectivity - not to have afterburners or be single seat.

    What the author proposes would be useful in the N Korea/S America/Iran/etc confrontation. But we really need to get ourselves to focus on what we want to succeed at. Trying to be the service that can simultaneously effectively fight terrorism and 5th Gen fighters is a large contributor to why we feel less ahead than we have in the past. Get a friggin acquisition strategy together and don’t walk the line balancing both priorities!

  6. Light fighters can’t get to the South China Sea. On top of that they aren’t survivable at all. For the peer threat, I see no niche.

    Also, MUMT is the AI of the 2010s. It’s getting funding, but good luck making it economically scalable.

  7. Whether you like it or not, ROE lims will exist. Bet we aren’t gonna be allowed to use tactical nukes unless very specific circumstances are met. And I bet most of us are fine with that.

    If anything, those wars you listed should have taught us that military action alone is incapable of solving complex geopolitical disagreements effectively. We have basically lost, from a national objectives standpoint, nearly every single kinetic war since WWII. Our greatest success was likely the Cold War, which ironically effectively used diplomacy, information, and economic warfare successfully, but almost no direct military response.

     

  8. Selection bias is rife. Yesterday’s  conspiracy theories have often been actually conspiracy theories. See how COVID was over in Apr 2020, then Aug 2020, then Apr 2021, then… or how hydroxychloriquine was a miracle drug… etc.

    Im just posting data. You guys can get offended at data if you like, but we’re at the point of no more rational discourse if that’s the case.

    • Upvote 1
  9. 5 minutes ago, Buddy Spike said:

    Has Omnicron actually caused that (verified?)

    I had it a week ago.  Everyone I know that's had it has had the same symptoms.  Two weeks earlier I had an upper respiratory infection that was exponentially worse.  

    Yeah, it’s generally less severe than the already non-severe for our demographic delta. But it’s significantly more transmissible.

    John’s Hopkins, the CDC, and the NYT are tracking hospitalizations in that ballpark. But maybe that’s not confirmed enough.

  10. 9 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

    The study does, but the article doesn't, that was the point.  We distill everything into small bytes because people won't take the time to read. 

    Ah. Do you see something in the article that is not corroborated by the study? Or is there something in the study that is intentionally left out of the article.

    I guess I don’t see the issue if it generally accurately portrays the main points of the study.

  11. 28 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

    This article is maddening and illustrates why there is so much confusion.  Not a dig on you but peel the onion back a bit and watch Facui hijack the result

    .….

    Now the rub - the numbers you show above are great but are not cross-correlated to vaccinated versus unvaccinated, boosted versus non-boosted.  All we have is the comment from our dear leader who says - NIAID director Anthony Fauci added that those who are vaccinated and boosted are much less likely to get severe illness from Omicron.

    Yes they are, don’t where you’re basing your opinion from. The study is at the top of the article, I’ll assume you didn’t read it. Check it out:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full-text
     

    They clearly control and account for vaccination status, previous infection, age, sex, and comorbidities. The data shows BOTH that omicron is likely less severe AND vaccines are effective at reducing hospitalization/death.

  12. https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html
     

    Keeping up with the data. Current studies are showing Omicron has a ~90% reduction in mortality, ~75% reduction in ICU admission, and ~50% reduction in hospitalization compared to previous variants. Would be nice if it was 90% across the board, because this will still overrun the hospital systems based on having 5-10x the cases. Oh well.

    • Upvote 1
  13. 2 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

    masking is not a small nuisance...it is very harmful to peoples psyche

    Agreed. Arguing it’s no big deal is a real cop out argument. A potential 10-20% reduction in transmission traded for an inability to accurately portray or determine emotions is not worth it from a human social connection standpoint.

    • Like 3
  14. On 12/28/2021 at 11:49 AM, Negatory said:

    We just got to 2X on confirmed cases. Probably 1.0M a day if you include unreported literally now. I’m not kidding you!

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-tally-us-counts-more-than-500000-new-covid-cases-in-a-day-lifting-the-daily-average-to-a-near-1-year-high-2021-12-28

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/04/us-global-record-more-than-1m-daily-covid-cases

    @ViperMan et al? Looks like your feelings based argument that we would never go a multiple above 250k isn’t panning out. Just like COVID going away on its own, ending when it heats up, disappearing, etc…

    • Upvote 1
  15. On 12/31/2021 at 8:24 PM, Majestik Møøse said:

    The squadron bar is kinda like a social media platform. You say something dumb enough in the bar and you’ll get shouted down by the bros. Keep saying dumb shit, and they’ll change the door code and not let you back in. If the Bobs who own the bar decide not to change the door code and keep letting the clown talk, the bros will eventually leave and nobody likes the bar anymore. Either way, the Wing Commander isn’t coming to arrest you for just being a douche in the bar.

    This is ironically great because it’s how it should work, but doesn’t. Reference the 2 bros I’ve seen get Art-15d by the group commander for drunken sexual jokes they made in front of the wrong person.

  16. 3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

    I'll give you a slightly different take. 

    Is he a douche, yes.  Were the people that shouted things at Trump in official settings douches, yes.  Was Rep Joe Wilson a douche when he shouted at Obama during the State of The Union, yes.  However, there is an underlying principle of the Constitution that separates us from every other country, the First Amendment.  Events like these rub against common courtesy and decency, they can be sicking to hear, and they often make people like me mad, but they are absolutely protected free speech and we should embrace that no matter much we dislike it.  Think about it, in other countries you would be sent to the Gulag, poisoned, or simply disappear. 

    The First Amendment is powerful, and first for a reason.  Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

    Our country is very divided at the moment, but not as divided as we have been in the past when politicians used to duel or the ultimate disagreement when we found a civil war and killed 2.5% of the American population.  Free speech isn't free only when you agree with what the other person is saying...tolerance is a tough pill to swallow at times, but it is a necessity in our system and it may be the tool that brings us back together, or close enough we can get things done in the middle.

    Brother I feel your anger, I've been upset when people say things that I think are moronic on this forum.  I've lost my temper and replied in anger, but at the end of the day I circle back to everyone in this country having the right to believe what they want.  Your statement above is the best approach to dealing with such douches, but remember, in this great country they do have the right to be a douche.

    Just my .02

     

     

    No one here is arguing for this guy to be locked up. They are arguing that this guy is a douche, and that everyone should think that he’s a douche. Big difference.

    While the first amendment let’s you say almost whatever you want with a few caveats, it only protects you from the government. Private citizens, private organizations, and private businesses have all the rights in the world to never interact with this guy in a positive way again based on what he said if they want. We can judge his speech harshly. We can denounce him and convince others to denounce him. We could petition Twitter and Facebook to deplatform him right now with no real constitutional recourse - and before you tell me I’m wrong, they already did it with Trump. Twitter/Facebook could choose to do that on their own! I can even openly advocate for other free citizens to legally boycott this guy based on his beliefs. I can tell everyone else that this guy is a shitty dude, if I want. I can try to convince others of the same. As long as I don’t lie about facts, I am absolutely protected, and you should embrace that no matter how much you dislike it. 

    It’s a common misconception that the first amendment gives you any more protection for yourself than freedom from gov persecution. It’s not freedom from societal judgment. Not even an iota.

    Also, arguing tolerance of all free speech could be what brings us back to the middle is a ridiculous over generalization. Would you have been the one arguing for tolerance of the American Nazi Party’s platform in 1946? Sure, the gov shouldn’t do anything if it’s not criminal. But private society choosing to harshly judge someone for being a childish douche? Sorry bout ya.

    • Upvote 3
  17. On 12/22/2021 at 1:30 PM, ViperMan said:

    Why is that important? Because it adds to my suspicion that this is all theater. And every day that passes, I become more and more convinced that it actually is. We locked down when this thing first began, and at its absolute worst, we were seeing ~250K/ cases per day with ~3-4K deaths per day (if you subscribe to the notion that COVID was the sole cause of death, which I do not; https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html). Now, you're telling me that this thing is going to imminently peak not only to that level, but at a rate (mathematical certainty) that will top it by 4X!!! Are you kidding me?

    We just got to 2X on confirmed cases. Probably 1.0M a day if you include unreported literally now. I’m not kidding you!

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-tally-us-counts-more-than-500000-new-covid-cases-in-a-day-lifting-the-daily-average-to-a-near-1-year-high-2021-12-28

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