drewpey
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Posts posted by drewpey
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On 3/23/2020 at 4:59 PM, brickhistory said:
I think your math is inflated by several digits, but as I premised, what is the cut line?
Some, worst case in my opinion, 20,000-30,000 in the U.S., another 50,000 worldwide deaths or a literal stopped economy, both ours and Western Europe? BTW, China is cranking its factories back up and Russia never stopped.
We are printing money by the non-metric sh1t ton-load and the stock market is still tanking. Small businesses do not have the reserves to stand more than 1-2 weeks of not getting customers. Even if we opened for business tomorrow, thousands of mom-and-pop's are gone. They'll eventually be replaced assuming there's still an economy to make it worthwhile to try.
As I said, I don't have the answer(s). More/gooder medical supplies/meds, yea! Shutting everyone up behind closed doors? Not so sure.
And I'm (using the royal "I," not me personally) losing my first, second, fourth, sixth, and seventh amendment rights because somebody said so. Is that us?
I'm agin that.
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It is temporarily painful because everyone is caught off guard. Instead of trying to force our way back to what was normal, I think we should consider what wasn't necessary in the first place. I welcome the potential for change of shifting away from several boomer-era institutional inertias...we might realize that we don't need to sit around offices for 5 days a week, 9 hours a day staring at a computer when the work could be done faster at home with a decent computer and internet connection. Also I don't want to go through an entire store to pick up one thing...bring it to me at the curb or deliver to my house? Yes please. Businesses might start actually refilling hand sanitizers, taking the time to clean the bathrooms and people may even start washing their hands more often. I might not have to stand behind a line of old people at the store paying cash and writing checks at the store if they learn to use a NFC payment for fear of their life. We might care that those prepping our food have adequate sick leave so they aren't pressured to work sick. We might care that there are social safety nets for mass layoffs. We might care that there is a strong healthcare system that is there to support a significant event like this. Or we can just act like this isn't a big deal...it's the last time something like this is going to happen, and go back to work while people around us die.
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1 hour ago, brickhistory said:
But where - and I don't presume to have any answer - is the line between being smart and fighting this and absolutely wrecking our, and the world's economy?
Is a repeat of the 1930s worth the culling of the human herd that most likely will happen anyway? I write that knowing that I'm in a higher risk of not recovering group due to age. This isn't the Black Death. It's a deadly form of influenza that will likely get 100s of thousands worldwide not 100s of millions. Where's the line?
More importantly, to my anyway, is where is the line regarding keeping our Constitutional system alive and mostly well? (pun intended).
Gonna need more bourbon.
And Pop Tarts...
There were an estimated 38-54M cases of the flu in the US alone over the last 6 months. Given that Covid-19 is twice as transmissible as the common flu, topping 100M isn't a far fetched thought. Lets imagine we just let it run wild and it only infects the same amount of people as the regular flu...even with the conservative CFR we've seen in the US of 1.31/100 you're looking at 700k dead...roughly twice the size of the USAF. What's that worth to the economy?
Now imagine it's twice as transmissible (it is), and that some countries have seen CFRs upwards to 4+ (China) or 9+ (Italy). Also you aren't even considering the logistical side of our crippled healthcare system dealing with that many cases of Coronavirus. You think the VA is bad now? Just wait.
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18 hours ago, HU&W said:
Which community are you a part of? I’ve never heard either phrase.
I'm pretty sure his part of the commissary doomsday-prepper/pharmacy pickup community these days.
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7 hours ago, Homestar said:
Maybe a democrat can help me understand....why is it that the DNC doesn't realize that (it seems to me) Tulsi Gabbard is the one candidate remaining that could actually go toe to toe with Trump and come out winning? Why is the DNC railroading her when she'd clearly get traditional swing voters and likely many never-trumpers? Is the Sanders/Biden machine really that strong?
Democrats don't care for Tulsi because she is not a democrat. The big criticism from the left against Biden is that he is too centrist which is why Bernie is doing so well. Tulsi is well right of Biden...so of course she isn't going to do well. Why do you think every republican loves her? Because she's actually pretty conservative in her views and has a pretty poor history for a politician on the democrat ticket in 2020. If you republicans love her so much why don't you put her on your ticket?
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19 hours ago, LaneHBO said:
Just going to leave this here for you gentlemen. Are we becoming too soft as a military?
How low, how fast and over what/who? Gotta be more to the story, and there's gotta be a youtube video of it...can't find it.
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3 hours ago, elephants201 said:
I’ve just been putting it off and haven’t heard anything from leadership about pressing me to go. I’ve heard rumors that there’s been a few people who have made it without SOS. I guess then when my peers tell me it’s required for Major it must not be true.
You either have shitty leadership or they don't like you (or both) if you are coming up to a Maj board and have no clue about your SOS plans. If you care about your career, then ask the question or just do it in correspondence. The truth is that unless you are top 10% the USAF doesn't go out of their way to help your career plans and it's up to your own motivation to find your way.
I'm always baffled why people avoid 6 weeks of drinking in Montgomery with weekends on the gulf with literally no responsibility but to show up to class relatively sober each day and get released early afternoon. Yes it's dumb. Have I done dumber things in the military? You bet.
At some point you realize some of the easiest money you've made in your career were when you were a student...and any opportunity to be one again is generally a good deal.
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This thread took a violent left turn somewhere. The world some of you fucking live in....jesus. You act like there are hordes of women running about trying to entrap you in salacious situations just to ruin your careers. There are three sides to every story. Some of you dudes love to listen to just one.
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3 hours ago, 2Exy said:
He told me ACSC shouldn't matter at all in the equation for promotion per the CSAF.
Then you should try and get a job working directly for that O6. The endemic problem is that CSAF has great ideas and makes good progress fixing things, but ultimately its his plethora of O6s and O7s between you and him interpreting guidance how they see fit.
For example the CSAF constantly rails that squadron commanders should be empowered by GP/WG commanders to run their organizations how they see fit...but there is no shortage of micromanaging leaders out there claiming to be servant leaders. Most of these dudes were DG at one or more PME and they loved the taste of that kool aid. You arent going to thumb your nose at PME and have it not affect your ranking.
Sounds like you are set being able to punch retiring as a Major. I'd take the money and run vs extending commitment, risking a shitty PCS/365 to get the O5 retirement. The AF has already indirectly told you they dont value your work, and regardless of your current job you'll find better employment outside with a much better QOL. Unless you plan to become a general or are having a shit ton of fun...staying past 20 doesnt make a lot of sense in most cases. Again I wish you luck.
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1 hour ago, 2Exy said:
I have no desire to do ACSC and I've yet to do it via correspondence.
This is pretty much a SIE for promotions in todays Air Force, even IPZ...if you are APZ with no PME thats a clean kill and you arent going to make it. The rules of the game are well known, and playing against them produces predictable results. Read the promotion statistics if you dont believe me. I wish you luck.
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9 hours ago, dream big said:
As to the 5 year window? Won’t change much for your BPZ/HPOs, they’ll still get promoted early but maybe it will remove the stigma from APZ? And hopefully enable late bloomers.
Doing away with BPZ also does away with the limitations of only being able to promote a certain percentage of your shiny pennies "BPZ". I'd like to think it will iron out, but without the speed limit I have a feeling you will just see more HPOs promoted earlier, and using the extended promotion window to fix manning shortages once things settle down. I hope I'm wrong and there is less pressure to select our generals based off SOS performance.
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Someone smarter than I once told me that generals don't like saying "no" to things, as they will look like they are responsible for the failure if it was the wrong decision. Instead of owning up to their decisions, they just "ask for more information" repeatedly until either the staff surrenders, it dies, or they move on to a different job and it's someone else's decision to make. Not sure if that's the case, but it sure makes a lot of strange behavior make sense.
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Home baked goods are the best, but they generally don't travel well or last long.
Varieties of packaged snacks. Something to break up the monotony of items 1-20 you eat on a regular basis. Quality isn't as big of a deal as variety...for example when dudes from Japan send a box full of 100 yen store junk food, it's a pretty big hit because of all the weird shit they have. Also it helps to have a few things that have a longer shelf life to throw in the helmet bag for missed meals.
One time someone sent a huge box of unshelled peanuts. It was a pretty big hit and the ops floor forever looked like it was a texas roadhouse. You could go to a bulk grocery store and fill up a box with mixes and misc things like that.
Sauces or salsa are good too. You can spice up a lot of shitty DFAC food with some sriracha or BW3 sauces. Gum. Mints. Water flavoring packets, if they have caffeine it's a bonus. Think crystal light, or something like the true lime packets.
Air freshener things like candles or something you can ship. Everyone stinks, they just don't know it until a female walks within 100m and you regain your superhuman olfactory senses.
One time someone sent a box full of silly string canisters and 30 minutes later all the string was gone and we had to break up a fist fight. Board games would generally do well...check your local thrift store or garage sales for cheap ones.
Holiday items work as well. Santa hats and beards, discount halloween costume items...there's always a squadron clown that will put them to good use at the most inappropriate time. Rubber snakes, spiders, etc. would keep things lively for a bit. After-season discount christmas lights.
Coffee is always a hit, and so are a variety of teas. Tylenol/Advil PM is the poor man's ambien when you've got a stingy flight doc.
Also Amazon has kind of revolutionized deployments with free shipping. If you have a unit's direct address you could easily just amazon random stuff to them cheaper than any USPS box. Keeping an eye out on slickdeals.net you will always see wipes, food, coffee, etc. that can be sent via Prime for a fraction of the price you could do it yourself. If it can be eaten, it will.
Also there is space-a mail for cheaper rates if whatever you are shipping can last a few months in transit.
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2 hours ago, dream big said:
How is it illegal? Show me where Trump’s foreign policy decisions are illegal and I’ll concede that the Lt Col made the right call and Trump needs to reign it in. The Lt Col even admitted that he only “had concern,” nothing anywhere about illegal activity.
There is a dangerous precedent to be set when military members think that they can influence policy because they disagree with the administration. Generals for example advise, but in the end if their advice is not taken they either A. shut up and color or B. resign.
Thanks for your concern about me being in a leadership position, I happen to be in one and encourage my subordinates to pass feedback on my decisions. But I’m not a civilian leader in charge of the military making national policy.
It's not about whether the action was actually illegal or not, it's a matter of perception. He perceived there was wrongdoing, brought it up. He did the right thing. You want to judge the action based on your perceived outcome, but that's not how things work. You want people to voice concerns when they have them no?
You will never have a completely impartial complaint. It's not a thing, but you all act like every opinion is immediately invalid because someone has a perceived a bias. Immediately throwing out or silencing all complaints with any hint of bias is going to lead to there being zero complaints. This guy isn't the judge...he isn't determining legality or punishment, he simply raised his hand and said he had concerns and was silenced.
The problem here is the right wing media is painting him as a partisan hack, which then puts the military in a bad light and you don't like. If the media were to simply look at him as a person voicing concerns through an established process (which he is), then it wouldn't be dragging down the "impartiality" reputation of the military. This is a predictable cycle though, as anyone who gives even the slightest shred of disagreement with Trump is immediately eaten alive, even if they are in your own party.
It's easy to get riled up over him when you look at it under these set of political circumstances, but instead imagine a similar situation happening with an IG complaint, sexual assault, a maintainer sabotaging an airplane...etc. You don't want people out there witnessing potentially bad things to be second guessing themselves and being afraid of reporting. Report it and let the authorities sort it out. He did.
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6 hours ago, dream big said:
He “thought” there was a problem with the way Trump conducted foreign policy. Well too effing bad. Military members don’t make policy, the President does; we execute that policy. If we don’t like said policy we can get out of the military and do something about it. This guy is either a shrill looking for attention or a complete fool. Either way, he’s about to become the darling of the left.
Yes he thought Trump's method of conducting foreign policy was illegal. He went through appropriate channels and was silenced. When another investigative body comes along and asks questions, you think he should just shut up?
Is that your answer for anytime a military person thinks they see someone break the law? "too effing bad"...keep your mouth shut and if you can't take it then quit? Jesus I hope you aren't in any sort of leadership position.
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49 minutes ago, brickhistory said:
And there's the rub.
His job or his opinion regarding American foreign policy. There's debate about which he's testifying to. As a minion, he's supposed to carry out the legal wishes of the elected President.
If he does, in fact, think POTUS did something illegal, then he has an obligation to step forward. If he simply disagrees with the foreign policy of this Administration, which according to the limited, available press reporting, then he's a partisan in uniform.
I don't question his patriotism even if it's the latter case (which is what I think).
Pretty sure Big Army would have preferred he not be highlighting his uniform since it greatly contributes to the view of politiciization of the military.
The rub is someone thought there was a problem and is using the proper channels to voice their concerns. This is what we should all want on either side of the aisle, and I'll take hundreds of dudes testifying in uniform over one Reality Winner thinking the only way to voice their concern is to jeopardize national security. One of the golden rules...don't make it hard to do the right thing.
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4 hours ago, Sim said:
LTC Vindman. Just another lefty hating America
Regardless of the dude's views, I'll never understand anyone whose identity is so wrapped up in their military service that they need to put it in their twitter handle.
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On 7/19/2019 at 10:43 AM, pawnman said:
As promised, here's a PRF that will NOT get you promoted.
I have not talked to AFPC or the WG/CC yet, so further analysis pending.
Looking at your PRF I am even more frustrated with this system, if that's possible. In the spirit of open-kimono, here is my PRF. I made it, but was firmly in the "Grey". I was told my my WG/CC to be "cautiously optimistic", so I had been sweating it quite a bit. The past few years I thought things were good, and was always told not to worry, but after taking the bonus and shortly thereafter being told the above, I was a bit pissed because I would have made different life choices had I seen the writing on the wall earlier. If the USAF doesn't like my work, that's fine I can find someone else to pay me money doing something that doesn't continually fuck me and my family over. Needless to say despite making it the entire experience and past year has honestly been a bit jading on me.
Here is the 1-star feedback on my entire record when I asked for clarification on my "P" and shitty push line:
Early OPRs are mediocre--to include not being stratted on my first OPR post-grad USAFWS which led him to ask if I had any disciplinary issues then (I did not)
Lacked any strats on early OPRs
I went from sq to gp, to sq and back to gp, not showing good progression (due to "AF needs")
At one point my strat actually went downhill a few %...one year X/XX, next year top XX%
I have too many functional strats that are "all throwaways the board will likely dismiss" (VMs, EWOs, branch chief, etc)
Strats were often strange coming from rater (Capt strat from rating Capt, Strat by a DO as a Maj, Strat by a GS-12 as a Maj, etc)
Not enough awards of any kind
Not having a MSM going into IPZ as a major is unfortunate
Was called out for "speeding" on job titles, said it would raise eyebrows with the board
I had too many OPRs not in a "W" prefix
Overall he said I was a late bloomer, and the board will have to square that with my poor early record, and hopefully my recent performance resonates with them.
He said that it likely is a 50/50 chanceI'm not here to pour salt on any wounds. In comparing our PRFs in many ways yours is stronger than mine, particularly in the push. I think it goes to show how finicky things can get in the "grey". Hopefully all this helps someone recognize any potential weaknesses in their own records or where they actually stand in the eyes of the USAF, and can make life decisions accordingly. Good luck next year everyone.
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That's a long time to sit on a desk
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14 hours ago, pawnman said:
It's not tested as a batch. Each sample is tested individually.
I don't believe it. I've been tagged twice in a month, and when I showed up the second time it was the same group of guys I shot the shit with a few weeks earlier.
Given how the bean counters love to save a penny it would make sense, especially since the pop rate is relatively low.
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Ask McConnell. All hell will break loose when the TSA folks miss their first check. The can only make ends meet so much by stealing shit out of my bags, and confiscating the good stuff at security lines.
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51 minutes ago, Tank said:
🤦🏼♂️
This is hard to watch...
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/01/02/trump-cabinet-meeting-james-mattis-sot-vpx.cnn
Going head to head with Mattis...that's a bold strategy cotton, lets see if it pays off!
I very much look forward to reading Mattis' book.
COVID-19 (Aka China Virus)
in General Discussion
Posted
Reading comprehension is hard. This is all it takes for someone to not comprehend what they are reading and start spreading stupid shit telling people masks make COVID-19 worse. If you have a medical mask then sure, it's worse...but for those who don't it's better than nothing. It's spread through droplets in the air, so while it may not catch all the particles, if it catches any you are likely better off protecting yourself or others with a cloth. Also it keeps mouth breathers from constantly touching their mouth and spreading germs everywhere. Wear one of the 50 shemaghs you've been issued, a handkerchief, a homemade mask or that old N95 sitting in your garage for years. Aircrew as a community immediately pillory anyone for not consulting an expert and making uneducated statements with regards to aviation...yet we constantly see people particularly in this thread turn their nose up at the nation's leading experts because they think they know better. It's like a dude trying to convince his fellow airline passengers not to listen to the aircraft commander and ignore the oxygen mask that just fell from the ceiling because his bro once told him sometimes it just happens. Why question it...it's literally not hurting anyone to put a mask on and hopefully it will end this whole thing 69 seconds earlier.