billy pilgrim
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Posts posted by billy pilgrim
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1 hour ago, Prozac said:
Fair ‘nuff. Here’s a well written & easy to digest article:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210719/covid-19-vaccines-not-gene-therapy
For the vaccines to alter a person's genes, Offit explains, the mRNA instructions would have to enter the cell's control center, the nucleus. The nucleus is walled off from the rest of the cell by its own membrane. To get past that membrane, the mRNA would have to have an enzyme called a nuclear access signal, Offit says, "which it doesn't have."
Yeah, I agree some of what he has to say but not his conclusions. The issue I see is that these enzymes that he's talking about aren't in the vaccine but they could very well be present in your cells - your cell made them etc... see link below how mRNA can interact with your genome.
Maybe it's a very small probability that something gets messed up in those processes - and it hopefully won't because nature is redundant* and awesome. But it is also an extremely complex process and not well understood.
Now multiply that (unknown now) small probability by thousands(?) of cells in your body affected by billions of people who take this and bad things are going to happen. Maybe not to you, maybe not right now, but there is not zero risk. That is a ridiculous conclusion.
The question is are the personal gains worth the risk? Are the community gains worth the risk? I don't know.
Who gets to make that choice? You? The government? Your employer?
Cheers.
*on a species level - which some of the time sucks for the individual.
edit for citation, clarification:
https://www.quora.com/Can-messenger-RNA-ever-enter-the-nucleus?share=1
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29 minutes ago, HossHarris said:
Haven’t flu shots been mRNA for a while now?
Not yet - but pharmaceutical companies are looking into this.
Edit citation:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-target-for-mrna-vaccines-after-covid-19-the-flu-11627041601
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2 hours ago, Prozac said:
We’ll, for one, it’s not “gene therapy”. I’m sorry you wrote so many words that are now moot because you started off with a completely bunk assumption.
Okay what definition are you using? Transmits mRNA into your cell (like mRNA viruses do? Because it 100% does) Alter the host DNA sequence? (The COVID shots shouldn't do this from what I understand - but the whole DNA transcription process is so complex... viral DNA ended up in our human genome - 1). I'm just saying that I don't have your level of confidence that we as a species have this all completely figured out yet. So let's not bog on semantics.
And you just leave it at that and don't want to talk about any of the other points? It's a lazy rebuttal.
I'm curious because I want to know, I'm trying to learn as much as I can about this. And unfortunately I am just getting a single narrative.
edit - citation:
1) https://www.cshl.edu/the-non-human-living-inside-of-you/
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Does no one else think it's insane this gene therapy is being pushed so hard? Feels creepy. It's never been done before (mRNA vaccine) but researched for at least a decade. But now it's good? 34 deaths out of 222k cases is what I'm tracking for the military (5). If I do the very rough math as an 11F, getting COVID is about the same mortality risk as flying 100 fighter hours. (1 is public, but your safety office has the same data if you're interested for your MWS)
No one has any idea what the risk is of the mRNA gene therapy. I mean if I drink alcohol or smoke cigars I know there is a risk with that and alcohol and tobacco have been around along enough that people have been able to figure that out. Same with riding a motorcycle or flying jets. Those stats exist.
I remember when I was in high school the human genome was finally sequenced and academics thought it was going to be a boon for medicine. And here we are 20 years or so later and we really don't know how it works. BUT we can manipulate it a little and get a first order effect. Progress. In the 20th century radium powered glow in the dark watches and then factory workers died of cancer.
I'm not saying that this is that. But I am saying that no one knows that it isn't that. Like if it takes a year off your life should you take it? Five years? Ten? What's the metric? If my odds of dying of COVID are 1:1000 and I think I'll live to 80 I should take it if (statistically) I think it's going to take leas than a month off my life. That's like zero biological long term impact. I hope that's the case btw for everyone who's gotten it.
As far as the transmission aspect. A study in the Lancet (2) set the reduction in risk from getting COVID from .8% with the Pfizer shots (worst) to 1.3% Astra Zenica (best). This doesn't address the mortality, just the transmission. But those numbers are terrible.
My main issue is that there is no long term data set on mRNA gene therapy. There will be in 10 or 20 years but there isn't now. And this isn't something I am willing to bet my personal health on. And this is for a disease that has a 99.9X survival rate for me? Something that studies have shown that if you've had it, the vaccine provides no statistically relevant benefit (Pfizer study - still tracking down link but reference 3 for now, same conclusion). A disease that natural immunity provides longer and 6-7x more immunity than the vaccine (Israel study - 3)
The drug companies are making BILLIONS and good for them, but the for sure have their lobbyists and what is in Pfizer's best interest is not NECESSARILY in my best interest. If this is so safe, why are they IMMUNE from liability under federal law? Now that it's "FDA approved" do you really think that will change? (6)
I like to read a lot and from what I've read about risk (Nassim Taleb anyone? "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence") getting these shots seems to be a lot like investing in something with a very small probable very large return (not dying from COVID) but can absolutely blow up (you dying much younger).
Why are medical doctors and PHDs being silenced on social media? Is it for public health? Would we want to hear all professional opinions of people who spend their whole lives studying these subjects?
It's been a frustrating year for the whole world and thankfully I live in America and not Australia where COVID has transformed them into a totalitarian society. (4)
Edit citations:
3) https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/310963
4)
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/rules/greater-sydney
5)
https://www.defense.gov/Explore/Spotlight/Coronavirus-DOD-Response/
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I have never met a general that would voluntarily resign. Those convictions are not how you get to a position like that.
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I'm just a pilot like most of the people here commenting. We all deal with risk mitigation every day, as well as policies and rules that are smart and those that are dumb and those that are political. It's nothing new.
I am not a doctor but know enough about math to be statistically literate. I do like Nassim Talebs ideas on risk mitigation. Specifically "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."
The vaccine might be almost 100% safe. It might have major long term side effects. There is no long term data on mRNA vaccines. There will be in the future because so many people are being vaccinated right now. A huge sampling pool will lead to some very accurate future analysis. I just have no interest in being part of that pool.
As a relatively young healthy dude who has probably already had COVID I can see no real upside to getting a vaccine and a lot of downsides. The way I see it, it's little different than investing in options in the market that have a probable gain but might bankrupt you.
I did the mortality math a year ago and flying a single fighter training sortie had the same mortality for me as COVID.Why is the government and the media pushing for this so hard? THAT to me is creepy as hell.
edit - spelling
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Well it was very unprofessional and good riddance!!! - active duty leadership
Did anyone back these up because I want to check out out. - me in the ANG
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Maybe when it comes to combat capability we as a country can just not look at sex or ethnicity (whatever the hell that means these days) and try a meritocracy. Which would mean just eliminating both from any application.
You're not doing anyone any favors if someone gets into a position they shouldn't be in due to race or sex.
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10 hours ago, VMFA187 said:
My old 911 isn't even close to as fast as modern cars with a scant 325rwhp, but man does it feel faster!
Yeah I get that. 2009 4S. Probably close to that 325hp at the wheels.. it feels like it's just getting into its element around 90mph.. much like a fighter accelerating through 400kcas.. my friend says the 911 turbo (996) is similar but happens around 130mph..
I ride sport bikes too, and they are for sure more fun - but the 911 comes pretty close.
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46 minutes ago, busdriver said:
Their entire body of work is blatantly marxist and anti western. Also, musically amazing.
Sent from my SM-T380 using Tapatalk
Love those riffs...
Being a leftist wealth distribution spokesman has yielded Tom Morello a net worth of $30M (according to a quick search of the interwebs) thanks to capitalism and free speech. Let the irony flow through you.
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On 3/24/2021 at 12:58 PM, ClearedHot said:
Tingle away brother...
Nice!!! That V8 sounds like America. Every time I hear a car like that I wish it was a bit louder.
I just picked up a used 911. Wanted one since I was like 10 years old - less torque than a 60's vette but it's a ton of fun.. Finally makes me understand the MX-5 and S2000 mafia.
Sad thing is that new manual, normally aspirated sports cars are becoming exceedingly rare - especially something with no electronic supervision like that old school vette. It's a shame.
Its unfortunate but the emissions laws and automation are going to make great drivers cars a thing of the past.
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Season 3 is out on Netflix of their formula one show..
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16 hours ago, JimNtexas said:
Question for our fighter pilots. I personally hate to see precious F22’s being used to intercept Bears off Alaska. Homeland defense does not need LO.
Would not an F-15X be a better choice for that mission than a single engine F-16?
Yes.
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The solution is to make the FNG Lt the snacko AND the WG/EO officer.
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1 hour ago, Sim said:
Okay that's a sampling (n 916) of the 150M or so voters. I understand how stats work a little and I don't know if you can just post a poll from NPR to put this to rest.
My personal opinion is that the alleged rampant fraud wasn't in every state but the ones that it was in was enough to overturn the will of the people in those states. A lot of Americans feel the same way. The coordinated radio silence and censorship on the MSM and social media platforms along with big tech (Google, big tech) should be cause for alarm for ALL Americans. Regardless of ideology or background or politics.
Of course I think everyone is on the same page with the issue here not being about the candidates, but about a free and fair and open election. Lots of people are arguing that that happened, and I truly think it did in a lot of states. IF however there was enough fraud to overturn the will of the American citizen in some states then I can't understand why everyone wouldn't be on board with getting to the bottom of this. IF that was the case and it was indeed enough to overturn the results of the election then I think that probably marks a point of no return for our republic.
Not a huge fan of politics and the only reason this is on my radar at all is because I have in-laws that migrated here from the USSR back in the 1980's who lived it. Their perspective is a unique one that probably few people on this message board have - and only recently have I begun to pay more attention to what they are saying is going on in America. I'm sure some of you guys have been to the museums in the old Soviet Bloc countries and to think that that would be impossible to happen here is pretty naive. It doesn't happen overnight, but there certainly gets to be a point where it's too late to go back. I really hope I am wrong about all of this. I enjoying BSing about flying with all you nerds much more than talking politics.
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3 hours ago, Prozac said:
I might be completely wrong here, but my sense is they’re being sarcastic. The “That stuff ain’t happening with Kamala Biden” remark seemed particularly tongue in cheek.
100% disagree.. they are dead serious.
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Not to armchair quarterback but it looks like a shit hot job from the C-130 crew getting it down safe in a field. Good work!!
800mg of Motrin should work for shoulder pain if there are too many high fives.
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On 8/12/2020 at 2:02 PM, nsplayr said:In terms of identity, the Democratic Party still has a lot of white male leaders while white males are a minority of typical party voters, so it was important in a big-picture sense to have more leaders who are women, people of color, or both. It’s not about “racism” or “sexism,” but representation and making an effort to have our party leadership look like the party membership. Stating the obvious, she is a she, she’s black and Indian, and the daughter of two immigrants. He is a he, white, and of longer American-born lineage - good balance.
I disagree on any emphasis on race or gender or any discriminator. It's divisive. The individual is the ultimate minority.
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Watching these videos you can see the shockwave traveling outward. I would think that it would travel at the Mach. Is this true? Can a shockwave travel faster than the speed of sound if there is enough energy? Or do they travel faster than the speed of sound? What happens (if anything) when it slows to the Mach and below?
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If you fly a jet to the boneyard you should get to keep something from the aircraft.
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On 6/25/2020 at 4:02 AM, Clayton Bigsby said:
Fuck there's 4 verses? What the shit?!?
Bro, do you even fly, fight and win?
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7 hours ago, dream big said:
Neither is Seattle nor it’s conclave “Chaz.” Really sucks that the left has taken over some of the prettiest scenery in America.
When does it turn into Lord of the Flies? Is there a warlord? Man, what a time to be alive! /sarcasm
I'm not sure how much to trust my memory of the 90's when I was in HS, but subjectively it feels like America has changed a ton since there. And not for the better.
1) Limited media outlets limit opposing views (I'm no liberal but I did read Chomsky's Manufactering Consent, and it talks about this).
2) The echo chamber of social media where people make decisions based on groupthink and their feelings as opposed to facts and logic*.
3) Big tech companies (FB, Google, YouTube etc...) filtering their content politically, selectitvely.
4) The hijacking of language, to the point where it is not possible to disucuss things as they are. The actual truth becomes impossible to dig out, which makes already difficult problems impossible to solve.
5) Academia (colleges) imparting their ideals on an entire generation of Americans. I went to the Academy so I feel like this isn't something I have witnessed first hand, but I have absolutely seen the effects. All my previously farily conservative relatives come out of college with all these wacky liberal ideas and views that don't seem to be grounded in reality at all*.
*These two points I think are related. One of the root causes of our countries problems right now is falling back to our emotions and using emotions over logic to address our problems. College is supposed to teach the opposite. It's like we are evolving the wrong way (Behave by Sapolsky talks a lot about how are brains differ from lower animals, and basically our greatest tool is critical thinking, animals rely heavily on emotion - you shouldn't need to read a book though to realize this!)
I realize that I am preaching to the choir, but I am much more concerned about our country than I have ever been. The division will be our downfall. The 1st amendment (censorship, COVID assembly bans), 2nd (talk of more gun control), 4th (mass survellence and contact tracing "justified" by COVID)... Ugly times.
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The Next President is...
in Squadron Bar
Posted
Maybe Trump was on to something with the sanctions? It wasn't exactly an even playing field with China. I'm all for free trade but more-so if all players play ball. The more industry and manufacturing that moves back to America the better.