SFG
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Posts posted by SFG
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6 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:
If they’re making the five year window 2BPZ-2APZ it won’t change shit just like how the new sub-categories won’t change shit and how the 2-line PRFs only make us waste less time writing PRFs but won’t change how the board works.
Sounding like it will be current IPZ to 4APZ. Will make it harder for passed over people to walk.
Sub-cats will definitely change things. My prediction is less broad and more focused sub-cat officers... or more tribal and inbred if you want to see it that way.
Two-line PRFs will make it harder for folks with complex or poorly written records to get promoted as it is now the board’s job to read and decipher most of their record and, not that two lines are bad, but the strict rules for how the two lines are to be written does not allow SRs to repeat info already in the OPRs (that may be hidden or needs highlighted).
Overall, it will all help force retention, and by force, I mean force...but when they leave the door cracked folks will still escape.
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3 hours ago, celtic020 said:
I feel it’s a good move for the Air Force and will get more aviators promoted.
1IPZ or 5IPZ?
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4 hours ago, Karl Hungus said:
...might as well get rid of it completely. The only people (for the most part) who take it were going to stay anyway... free money for them. Might as well waste that money on other Defense Industrial Complex garbage.
It’s not enough money to pay for any Defense Industrial Complex garbage. No, it will just go to another RAND study.
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I hear some new AF research project told them that there wasn’t a significant difference in take rates from $20K to $35K... their conclusion is that ->the bonus amount has no effect on take rate<- 😂
We never leveled off. They’re looking at the wrong indicators. We just steadied our decent. They should continue to lower the nose with QOL/QOS initiatives, BUT realize they’re in the region of reverse command. Add more power. I bet you $70K would move the needle, but don’t expect to see any bonus increases. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decrease after that turd of a third grade report.
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1 hour ago, Hunter Rose said:
Annual retention report is out.
Active Duty grew the pilot force by 54. At this rate, we’ll be where our manning numbers need to be in a mere 13-15 years! What a stupendous job Aircrew Task Force!
The Generals need to cry uncle. They need to ask Congress for a bigger bonus, or if stuck with only a $35K bonus they need to offer it with a one year commitment and renewable annually.
If that’s the case then requirements grew by 150, because we were just briefed that we’re an extra hundred short this year (~2100). Statistics. Hah! Depends on what you want to say I guess.
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17 minutes ago, genie90 said:
Anyone heard rumors on the FY20 ACP?
I’d expect late Jan or Feb. They have to have a bunch more meetings, release and clarify some new initiatives, and the CSAF needs to have his annual state of the Air Force spiel first.
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4 hours ago, brawnie said:
Also relatively easy fix, mask everything but the most recent 3-4 years or so.
How dare you innovate. This would risk having us rate guys based on their performance and not based on their year group or what jobs they did or did not have in the past or whether they were going to a board or not. Be safe out there folks... it's about to get weird!
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13 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:
Like everything else it won’t really matter or change anything because people who are already APZ have OPR(s) that no longer have a command push or strats as a result of being passed over. So, unless there is some way to fix that, the people currently APZ (new IPZ window) will not get promoted at any significantly higher rate.
Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile appYeah, Commanders’ attitudes will need to change along with the change in policy. I wonder what would happen if we hid year-groups from Commanders 😱
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15 hours ago, Homestar said:
Nothing wrong with attempting innovation in the UPT enterprise. We can’t stop calling for QOL and compensation improvements tho.
Agreed. Context: “spending another 25-100 million $$ per year for the next decade trying a dozen different ways to produce our way out of the problem.”
I’m all for innovation, QOL improvements, and attacking this thing from multiple angles. It’s spending wads of money to try to widen the mouth of the pipeline when a fraction of that could double the bonus and stop the bleeding instantly that makes me hurt for the guys and gals on the line doing more and more with less and less. How much longer can we sustain take rates well below the 65% that we require to maintain a healthy force, when we’re way beyond unhealthy? I bet if we retained more seasoned pilots we could increase production at a fraction of the cost of some of these other experiments. I’m not disparaging PTN or UPT 2.5 or whatever... I’m talking about stuff like contract UPT, new UPT bases, diversity outreach etc. Stuff that might be good, but is not the solution we need right this minute and is costing $$$10s of millions of dollars. We have not yet gone to Congress begging and pleading. They must think things are pretty darn good now that we’ve leveled off.
The big lie is that we can’t compete on compensation. No, not that improvements should not be happening with or without a crisis, but QOL is where we will never compete.
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9 minutes ago, MCO said:
No idea. Rumor here is 1BPZ is the new first year IPZ, but for all I know someone made that up.
Wow. I think this will really fork this year’s previously known as IPZ group. Will be more BPZ and APZers if that’s the case, for better or worse.
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In related news, word is we lost ground by another hundred pilots this year. 2100 hundred short now?
If we “leveled off” at all it was just a hard pull to trade airspeed for altitude and now we’re approaching the stall.
But we’ll probably keep spending another 25-100 million $$ per year for the next decade trying a dozen different ways to produce our way out of the problem.
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3 hours ago, Guardian said:
Shhhhh all is well. Fingers says the crisis is over!
We’re producing our way out of it. Obviously.
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28 minutes ago, pawnman said:
Weird, because our DS gave us the timelines for this board. 150 day was October 4 and PRFs were due to NAF last week.
Will it just limit the number of APZ looks someone gets, or is the intent that an 06 guy and an 03 guy are treated the same for promotion purposes?
Sounded like the latter, that is, when the 06 guy hits IPZ and the 03 guy is “3APZ” they’ll be looked at the same (and the 07 guy will not be meeting any board... or something).
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35 minutes ago, brawnie said:
Yeah I can sort of see the argument. But in my mind it’s a zero sum solution - money all comes from the same proverbial pot in the end. Would 10k extra for guard/reservists be a better investment for America/the big AF than 10k for active duty pilots? What does the AF need more?
With all the new perceived benefits that already exist from being in the guard/reserves, I feel like this would just be more of an incentive to leave active duty. I know for me personally this would only make me want to join the guard more.
Unpopular opinion maybe, but we already know that AD can’t compete with stability or homesteading that exists with the guard. If AD offered better pay, maybe that would entice people to stay. Make AD bonuses 45-50k. Currently, the only thing AD beats the guard on is 2BPZ promotions if you are one of the chosen ones.
I say this as someone who is definitely joining the guard for family reasons, regardless of money.
BPZ promotions are going away.
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soo... 2-line PRFs and all the associated racking and stacking hustle and bustle for our next groups of 2-BPZ and 1-BPZ folks meeting this next O-5 board or not...
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Seems like the AF realized they need to enable career broadening and joint officers who get their experience outside the tribe and this is their solution to keeping them competitive. Fact remains that when people continue to promote below their peers they will still leave for greener pastures even when they have 4 more “IPZ” looks on the way. At some point they need to stop blaming and tinkering with processes and work on values... and not the abstract read-between-the-lines, try to evaluate performance on a piece of paper, and play the strat game crap, but what skills, knowledge, and experience to we need to win wars stuff. We need more bomb droppers? Promote them, and if necessary promote people who could cross train to be them. We need folks with PHDs on China? Promote them. Quit playing games trying to nudge boards to do this or that with fancy career briefs, categories, or SECAF memos. Just hurry up and get the job done. Set floors to AF needs and let’s get back to our jobs, or getting passed over and making 6-figures with a 3 on the front-end.
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15 hours ago, Newb said:
Update to my original post:
Unfortunately, I’m still DNIF (since May). The flight doctor will not return me to flying status because of my neck injury. Personally, I feel healthy enough to fly, but I understand this precaution is to prevent any further damage to my spine. The doc is going pursue a categorical waiver for non-ejection seat aircraft once I’m asymptomatic.
What should I expect in the near term for my flying/officer career? Is there a chance I’ll be cleared to fly ejection seat aircraft again? Is there a chance I’ll operate RPAs if the waiver is denied? Could I be MEB’d? Should invest time researching crossflow opportunities into heavies or other non-ejection seat aircraft? What heavies should I look into? I’d like to remain in the tactical environment.
I apologize for the barrage of questions, but I didn’t expect to be permanently DNIF from flying since I feel close to 100% again. I understand all of my questions could be answered with “maybe”. My goal is to continue to fly for one more assignment, and have the option to be competitive for the majors once my ADSC is up.
I appreciate and understand there is a wealth of knowledge and experience in this forum so that is why I’m reaching out. Thank you!
I have a bud who flew A-10s and after an MEB out of fighters went to fly C-12s overseas... restricted to crew aircraft now. Attache-type. Got some DIA training. Some language training. Sounded like cool stuff. Then, he went back to the real world for another Ops tour... not sure what aircraft.
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23 hours ago, Guardian said:
I searched. Couldn’t find anything
Here’s one, probably others. I find Google site search works better than the organic search here.
I saw this happen once in 2008ish. The impression I got is that it takes a lot of wheeling and dealing, unit support, and probably a SECAF signature. But worth it if you want it.
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10 hours ago, Guardian said:
Anyone ever done this? I’ve heard rumors it’s a thing but have zero experience or knowledge about it. Guess you could say I’m ignorant. Any one heard or experienced it or know of someone who has?
There are posts in the forum about people who have done this.
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4 hours ago, Chuck17 said:
Bold prediction: Once the GOs return from CORONA, this program will die a quiet death... The E-pilots will be offered officer commissions or retraining, and Congress will get told how unsustainable an idea this was.
Chuck
Bold prediction: When the GOs return from Corona, this will be the new “way forward.”
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21 minutes ago, Majestik Møøse said:
To many enlisted dudes, sending their best qualified guys over to the officers’ team would be akin to a Democrat going to work for a Republican. They identify more with being enlisted than they do about being individuals with upward mobility.
Shots fired!
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6 minutes ago, Homestar said:
The AF needs to produce 1,400 pilots/year and retain 65% until 2034 to emerge from the aircrew crisis. That according to the ACTF Maj Gen Mack. UPT fell short of that by like 200 pilots this year. Probably going to underproduce next year as well.
It does seem that in a way the Air Force is really just waiting for an economic downturn. Nobody wishes for another 9/11, but another shock like that would fix the aircrew crisis over night.
Also, according to the ACTF, the AF is overmanned on FGOs and undermanned on CGOs. You may not see it that way in your neck of the woods, but those are the numbers.
I think it was said that 1400 to produce out, 1200 something for steady state, and we did 1100 or so.
Sad to hear that we are gambling on an economic downturn rather than creating flexible and responsive retention initiatives.
This has been floating around the squadrons:
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Supply and demand. Let it play out.
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1 hour ago, Gazmo said:2 hours ago, K_O said:Yes, many moons ago. 40% for fixed wing pilots. Which the AF is apparently cool with. 40 is the new 65.
Yeah well, in theory we are producing more new pilots so it's all good...
AF failed to meet its higher production goals this year and actually produced less than the previous standard rate so... Yep.
I should add that this failure is despite the dedicated efforts of our folks on the line.
Promotion and PRF Information
in General Discussion
Posted
Masters: Great so we’re going to kick out people who went the extra mile. Good idea. (better alternative is to have separate tracks... aviation-only vs strategic)
School selects: This was a good move in conjunction with new strat rules... would have liked to have seen this in my day.
Decline school: Why would you apply in the first place? So we’re only sending folks who get their way now? Perfect. Again... need two tracks.
365s: Need more data, as in, more than a slide with a few numbers saying they’ve decreased, but a slide per 365 that still exists to explain why it still exists and who is vulnerable. The rotating bills is also a great trick because each community can say they only have 5-10 365s to fill each year (you could be next!) oh and btw a few (20-60+?) that rotate between various communities (like roulette?).
Helmet art/sleeves: Who wasn’t doing this anyway?
Civilians: Not being in the SQs, I’ll accept this, but it sounds like only ACC is getting this... and we wonder why AMC and SOF folks are leaving for the triple six figure paychecks and the 3 weeks off 1 week on plans.
We just can’t get enough of our boxes. Until we can think outside of them and handle that the best leaders might not check all of them, any changes we make will be superficial at best.
I love our Air Force so I hope we can turn this ship around. “Fingers” crossed for new SECAF to make some sweeping leadership/cultural changes.