[What are my chances? Got my PCSM back the other day]

I went the ROTC route with active duty commission, so won't know airframe until graduation. I'm moderately versed in the guard/reserve path because a lot of my colleagues. Chem_teacher nailed it on the time between commission and class dates (about two years). Chem_teacher also is right on par with saying every scenario is different and pertinent to individual situations; as well as the 'good dude' comment. Guard and reserve units are a very close-knit fraternity, you've got the numbers for aptitude so the big thing is meshing well with their family. If you present yourself right and they want you in their unit, they'll get you the age waiver. Just keep up the fast pace to get something locked in, and do your research! You'll do great, try not to stress it too much. Before you know it you'll have your self a slot and think 'it was too easy.'

[What are my chances? Got my PCSM back the other day]

You need to start rushing your preferred ANG unit asap and get into OTS (unless you have already finished that process?). You have to be selected for UPT by age 29 and both the guard and OTS process for rated selections can be quite lengthy. Your stats resemble mine and I got a UPT slot in 2015 for FY16; time is what you need to be focused on here.

[Pilot Selection Board w/o Enlisting in Air Force]

As others have stated, it's all about which commissioning source you're looking into. Pilot selection boards are also extremely dependent on personal situations; look up the current order of merit for selection and you'll get a good idea what we're looking for. I was ROTC, I knew most my order of merit scores before I had to contract (enlist until commissioning -- which comes before rated selections) so I had a somewhat good idea of where I stood in comparison to past year selectees. The bad (and inevitable) factor is that rated selections are entirely based upon FY budget. My year got shafted pretty hard with sequestration and total force recall. For both field training (our officer school equivalent) and rated boards it was about 40-50% selections nationally, it was literally, "if you are in the bottom half of your class (rankings) you are out." 

As for OTS you still have the big factor of budget and big Air Force manning algorithms, but you will know before committing to OTS if you have been selected for a rated position. This process is quite lengthy, but OTS in itself is the quickest commissioning route. OTS is also a lot more competitive for rated, they receive far less slots than ROTC and the academy and it is highly subjective to your professional network, civilian flying experience and much higher than average aptitude scores (AFOQT, TBAS, PFA, etc.). 

I hope this helps, let me know if you have any other questions.