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Promotion and PRF Information


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8 hours ago, BeefBears said:

Sounds like there are going to be a lot less strats overall since you have to pair functional with a rank strat. 

Are we going to get better at telling people where they stand before they're signing their own OPR?

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On 3/3/2021 at 3:14 PM, pawnman said:

Are we going to get better at telling people where they stand before they're signing their own OPR?

I’ve asked various commanders I’ve worked for why we don’t strat more than 15-20% unlike the Marines that strat everyone.  Most say something along the lines of “the Air Force doesn’t care about you if you’re not in the top 15-20%.  It’s just another method to discretely maintain an HPO system. 
 

I wish we would strat everyone 1-n, there should be no question on where an officer stands relative to their peers.  But that would eliminate the cat string that causes officers to think that they still have a chance.

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55 minutes ago, dream big said:

I’ve asked various commanders I’ve worked for why we don’t strat more than 15-20% unlike the Marines that strat everyone.  Most say something along the lines of “the Air Force doesn’t care about you if you’re not in the top 15-20%.  It’s just another method to discretely maintain an HPO system. 
 

I wish we would strat everyone 1-n, there should be no question on where an officer stands relative to their peers.  But that would eliminate the cat string that causes officers to think that they still have a chance.

Problem is he is right. The AF doesn't care about those outside the top 25% or so. Only the top 15% will go to school and very few other people will command. The r ality is the AF doesn't need you to stay past major. They need a pilot, so they offer a bonus (unless your an 11R). But as an officer, if you aren't on track to command, you don't really offer a lot of value to the organization. So the best think you can do for you own sanity is determine early on if command is important to you or not. If it's not, divorce yourself from the strat/careerism game as early as possible and don't worry about impressing people with you superior christmas party planning skills. Come to work to fly and try to do little else. If you aren't a complete dirt bag, and check your boxes, you will still make Lt Col and retire, making the same pay as everyone else. 

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Come to work to fly and try to do little else. If you aren't a complete dirt bag, and check your boxes, you will still make Lt Col and retire, making the same pay as everyone else. 


In AMC, this advice will put you in the bottom 15% and you won’t make Lt Col.
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The difference between major and ltcol pay at 20 is about 12%.  With flyers being pretty much autocontinued, you really have to debate whether those extra hoops are worth jumping through.

Edited by BeefBears
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7 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 


In AMC, this advice will put you in the bottom 15% and you won’t make Lt Col.

 

It will definitely get you a P on the PRF which is a 50/50 shot. I’m exhibit A. Luck of a coin flip I guess. 

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On 3/4/2021 at 1:48 PM, FLEA said:

Problem is he is right. The AF doesn't care about those outside the top 25% or so. Only the top 15% will go to school and very few other people will command. The r ality is the AF doesn't need you to stay past major. They need a pilot, so they offer a bonus (unless your an 11R). But as an officer, if you aren't on track to command, you don't really offer a lot of value to the organization. So the best think you can do for you own sanity is determine early on if command is important to you or not. If it's not, divorce yourself from the strat/careerism game as early as possible and don't worry about impressing people with you superior christmas party planning skills. Come to work to fly and try to do little else. If you aren't a complete dirt bag, and check your boxes, you will still make Lt Col and retire, making the same pay as everyone else. 

About that...

I made it on the second go.  But even prior, I was doing a lot more than min-running my time and showing up only to fly, and I still got passed over IPZ.

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1 hour ago, Tiger said:

For example, if a commander DNP’s a 1Lt for promo to Captain on his first eligible look, will he then be ABZ on the next go around?  

Yes. His IPZ was a DNP. Next year up is APZ

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On 3/12/2021 at 10:40 PM, Tiger said:

Got it.  So when they announce selection results for a 100% eligible board and a few officers are selected APZ, I would assume they most likely were given DNP PRF’s the last time.

I believe 100% eligible still doesn't mean 100% promoted, unless you're talking specifically about O1-O3. I've known 2 dudes part of the 100% eligible, one DNP and one P and neither made it.  Knew another guys who's package (STS) was just shit and somehow made it APZ to Maj.

Ready for spears if I'm wrong.

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7 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

I believe 100% eligible still doesn't mean 100% promoted, unless you're talking specifically about O1-O3. I've known 2 dudes part of the 100% eligible, one DNP and one P and neither made it.  Knew another guys who's package (STS) was just shit and somehow made it APZ to Maj.

Ready for spears if I'm wrong.

It's certainly a weird way of phrasing it...isn't everyone in the right year group "eligible" for promotion at every board?

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11 hours ago, pawnman said:

It's certainly a weird way of phrasing it...isn't everyone in the right year group "eligible" for promotion at every board?

I agree. They are just saying all 100% can be promoted instead of saying maximum is x% that can promote on a given board. Wording is a little weird. 

Edited by MCO
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I agree. They are just saying all 100% can be promoted instead of saying maximum is x% that can promote on a given board. Wording is a little weird. 
I think it's typically worded as 100% promotion opportunity, based on them being "fully qualified" (i.e. no legal trouble) for 1LT and Capt.
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3 hours ago, jazzdude said:
4 hours ago, MCO said:
I agree. They are just saying all 100% can be promoted instead of saying maximum is x% that can promote on a given board. Wording is a little weird. 

I think it's typically worded as 100% promotion opportunity, based on them being "fully qualified" (i.e. no legal trouble) for 1LT and Capt.

Remember also promotion oppurtunity is based on the # IPZ in that particular year. If there are a few APZ then the board will not promote a few IPZ if they can justify some of the APZ possessing more promotion potential than the bottom of the IPZ.

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  • 1 month later...

The O-5 board has been updated. Air Staff approved it on 29 Apr 21. I am assuming SECAF will be this month, so maybe a late-June release? Hopefully it goes faster than last year. If not, I would guess results might not be released until late-July/early-August.

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  • 2 weeks later...
20 minutes ago, celtic020 said:

Anyone know the odds of getting selected in first look for SDE?  I gotta assume its incredibly low.  But is it low enough where its pointless to even try?  

If you're trying for O-6...just go ahead and start AWC in correspondence.

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13 hours ago, celtic020 said:

Anyone know the odds of getting selected in first look for SDE?  I gotta assume its incredibly low.  But is it low enough where its pointless to even try?  

If you aren’t a graduated SQ/CC, the odds are infinitesimally small you’ll be picked up for SDE first look. 

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22 hours ago, pawnman said:

If you're trying for O-6...just go ahead and start AWC in correspondence.

How fast can the current iteration of AWC be completed?  The book answer doesn't have an answer.

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/eSchool/documents/PME/Combined_PME_Handbook_current.pdf

It lists 7 months for ACSC (which is very doable)...but doesn't put a timeline for AWC.  It looks comparable to ACSC maybe a little shorter.

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10 hours ago, war007afa said:

If you aren’t a graduated SQ/CC, the odds are infinitesimally small you’ll be picked up for SDE first look. 

My quick bar napkin math tells me that it’s nearly impossible to be a ‘graduated’ sq cc and then have your first look.  Even if you’re early to command, I’m pretty sure your first look would still be while being a sitting commander.  
 

I had a recent Sq commander who was not a BTZ O-5, but was a school select on his O-5 board, who then was picked up his first look while being a commander.  Interestingly enough he turned it down.  

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How fast can the current iteration of AWC be completed?  The book answer doesn't have an answer.

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/eSchool/documents/PME/Combined_PME_Handbook_current.pdf

It lists 7 months for ACSC (which is very doable)...but doesn't put a timeline for AWC.  It looks comparable to ACSC maybe a little shorter.


I min ran it in about 4 months. Longest wait time is for the facilitated courses, but you can take multiple classes at once. Not sure on the limit, I was doing 2 concurrently.

It’s manageable.
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4 hours ago, HeloDude said:

My quick bar napkin math tells me that it’s nearly impossible to be a ‘graduated’ sq cc and then have your first look.  Even if you’re early to command, I’m pretty sure your first look would still be while being a sitting commander.  
 

I had a recent Sq commander who was not a BTZ O-5, but was a school select on his O-5 board, who then was picked up his first look while being a commander.  Interestingly enough he turned it down.  

As a flyer commanding an ops squadron it’s possible but you would have to be a commander as you pinned on O-5. I’ve seen it but it’s rare. Otherwise your bar napkin math checks.

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5 hours ago, HeloDude said:

My quick bar napkin math tells me that it’s nearly impossible to be a ‘graduated’ sq cc and then have your first look.  Even if you’re early to command, I’m pretty sure your first look would still be while being a sitting commander.  
 

I had a recent Sq commander who was not a BTZ O-5, but was a school select on his O-5 board, who then was picked up his first look while being a commander.  Interestingly enough he turned it down.  

The majority of non-rated career fields will have O-4s as commanders. Some, like SFS and MX, they'll get multiple command tours. 

Which is also why it's dangerous to go up for O-5 IPZ from a line job, and not school/staff - most of your competition are sitting squadron commanders. At least under the old system. 

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