Promotion and PRF Information

[C17Driver]

Ok, another possible stupid question. The whole school "dream sheet" is coming up in the next couple of months, and I had a question on the ADSC that comes with it. I never expected to get a school slot (no BA+ or Masters at the board or after, and I don't walk on water) so I never got smart on everything that comes with it. Does the ADSC come with filling out the 3849, or only when picked up for a school.

Also, for selects, is there a typical timeframe that you will go to school? For example, with assignments lining up right, will a select go first look, or later?

Sorry, like I said, never expected the school slot, so I'm still foggy on the details. I'd ask someone locally, but I'm at a GSU. I'm the only USAF guy around for 11 hours...

ADSC is after getting picked to go...and you accept. As far as when a select will go, it depends. Lots of variables that can drive which look you get picked up on. Being a select does not make it automatic that you'll go on your first look.

[LockheedFix]

Ok, another possible stupid question. The whole school "dream sheet" is coming up in the next couple of months, and I had a question on the ADSC that comes with it. I never expected to get a school slot (no BA+ or Masters at the board or after, and I don't walk on water) so I never got smart on everything that comes with it. Does the ADSC come with filling out the 3849, or only when picked up for a school.

Also, for selects, is there a typical timeframe that you will go to school? For example, with assignments lining up right, will a select go first look, or later?

Sorry, like I said, never expected the school slot, so I'm still foggy on the details. I'd ask someone locally, but I'm at a GSU. I'm the only USAF guy around for 11 hours...

So are saying you're a school select with no AAD? I didn't think that was possible in this day and age.

[Jaded]

Recently heard of a guy who got passed over for O5 while AT ACSC because when he sent his package in from Maxwell he didn't yet have an AAD.

[slackline]

So are saying you're a school select with no AAD? I didn't think that was possible in this day and age.

Nothing and no plans to outside of school they send me to. If I get passed over for O-5, so be it. My priorities have always been Family (to the extent I possibly could while hacking the mission), Mission, my free time (gotta stay sane right), and career has never made the list other than things I was forced into like SOS. I've deployed 7 times, and done 4 45 day trips to Korea, so it's not like I've been screwing over my bros. I take my fair share of the garbage details that are out there.

My current CC told me I had to get an AAD even with school select. I told him I had zero plans to do so, since I don't have the time for a real one, and the garbage ones don't interest me in any way, shape, or form. Pretty safe to say, I won't ever get a strat from him.

So be it, I knew the score coming in, but so far my priority list has treated me right.

[Chuck17]

PM sent.

Chuck

[Champ Kind]

Only the CSAF's highly anticipated "Vector" will answer that.

[spaw2001]

Only the CSAF's highly anticipated "Vector" will answer that.

Exactly..Based on his recent speech at my base, he hinted at the fact that we can expect for masters degrees to be masked or carry less clout for 04 boards...But, we'll see if the AMU and TUI lobbyists have adjusted his position

[DirkDiggler]

Only the CSAF's highly anticipated "Vector" will answer that.

Unfortunately this may answer the question but not solve the problem. Everyone in my chain of command has inferred/flat out said that even if Welsh masks the AAD for O-4 we should still get a masters. Its stupid but I understand where they're coming from; they think the next guy after Welsh will reinstate maters/O-4 and then a bunch of year groups will get burned. I just see it as evidence of how difficult it is to get an entrenched bureaucracy to change its course/midnset.

[spaw2001]

Agreed..This reminds me of SOS in correspondence. When I was in-res, the commandant specifically said that now that it is 100% attendance, correspondence will no longer be a pre-req. Guess what! My base still won't send you unless correspondence is complete. Similarly, as someone mentioned before, Wing commanders have the ability to give DPs only to masters complete folks. Yet, this will be tricky to force people to do something that the AF is not willing to pay for. Up to now, the AF hid behind their $250/cr hr pittance to justify voluntelling people to get masters on their own time.

Edited March 16, 2013 by spaw2001

[Chida]

When the CSAF masked masters before, the wing commander at my base gleefully informed us that he was still using it in HIS rack and stack and that we were strongly encouraged to get it regardless of CSAF's intent. The group and squadron commander's, of course, fell in line.

No, merely masking won't do a whole lot. This kind of entrenched stupidity needs to be micro-managed away. I'd suggest removing masters from DVB/SURF/OPB/OSB and making it only visible to those who need to know (AFPC functionals?) and prohibiting (via AFI) its data collection or use during all processes leading up to a PRF.

[disgruntledemployee]

/cut words/

Look, like I said before I am not advocating this. I think it is ridiculous how the masters thing is set up and I wish you and I could just focus on our primary job and become better at what we do rather than having to worry about getting a masters. The system is broken beyond repair right now. However, I also think many here are kidding themselves. The bitch of an AF that we are in is not going to let up on the education demands for one minute just because we have a good CSAF right now or because TA went away. Besides, for every step that we take toward making things better will be negated by two steps back in a few years. It will be history repeating itself all over again. So, like I said before the TA being taken away is not a good thing. The shoe clerks will continue to get their degrees while many here will throttle back while they are kidding themselves into thinking that it will all get better. This will all end with a big smack in the face when you don't make Major or Lt Col because you fooled yourself, while a higher percentage of shoes will get the "S" next to their name on the Major selection list. I personally have seen people in my squadron and friends of mine all over the AF throttling back due to this thinking and who have been dropping masters classes left and right because of this TA cut. This is going to hurt them. So, again, and lastly, you all can think what you want and fool yourselves into believing that we need to be willing to give up things like TA, but you are losing a battle for scarce resources that you were promised and that you have earned and deserve. You have less money now because you have to pay more out of pocket while our elected leaders have given up nothing and while more and more people who are doing nothing for themselves are continuing to get more and more welfare.

He's an interesting thought. If the CSAF commands all wing commanders/etc that they will not use AADs for O3 or O4 boards or else*, they will snap to, just like they did when the CSAF said to get rid of funny pictures or else*. Now will he say that, probably not. Will CCs still use the AAD as an indicator of leadership ability if masked, probably. Next, CCs will ask where/what about the degree and decide accordingly, especially if it gets masked. What's next, club membership?

My point is that quite often box checking is the only way to show wing CCs that you are good, especially when it gets down to PRFs to Capt. They don't know most of the Lts and frankly, neither to Sq CCs as many just popped out of the pipeline. What is sad is that now I see people with masters degree coursework out instead of their FTU courseware out. That is fucked up.

Next will be the degree mill that charges you the least amount because TA goes away forever.

*Else = whatever the man threatened the wing CCs with that made them all jump and take swift and furious action. It was amazing (and sad) to see/read about all the action that took place.

[DC]

He's an interesting thought. If the CSAF commands all wing commanders/etc that they will not use AADs for O3 or O4 boards or else*, they will snap to, just like they did when the CSAF said to get rid of funny pictures or else*.

THIS.

No AFI change, no crazy change in the way we do business. The CSAF just needs to say, "don't look at AAD" via a memo. All of the CCs at every level will jump to his every word. Usually the yes-man attitude of our leadership is obnoxious at best and poisonous at worst, but in this case could totally be used for good.

I think we'll see it masked on the boards. The CSAF has hinted at it many times. He is looking for ways to make us more effective without ruining our morale by freeing up some time for work and family. He sees that the majority of AADs don't add the value they should. It isn't a black-and-white topic, though. There is a small minority of officers who get degrees that are worthwhile and not a waste of time. What they learned in school should be utilized to the max extent possible. That's why it's unlikely he'll ask the Wg/CCs and below to ignore AADs. That's a shame, there has to be a better way.

By the way, the AAD "requirement" and the TA issue are totally unrelated. The AAD is a much bigger issue and will be handled without much regard to whether or not they're handing out TA this FY or next.

[TheFranchise]

Since I don't fly anymore this fiscal year I decided to pull some stats from AFPC in regards to the almighty AAD and how it effects your O-4 promotion odds. Here are some stats for discussion since the running argument is that a masters is "required" for promotion.

% Promoted to Major

2011 89.9

2010 89.1

2009 93.7

2008 93.9

2007 94.2

2006 93.3

2005 92.4

2004 93.1

% Promoted to Major w/o AAD

2011 77.4

2010 81.7

2009 88.9

2008 91.5

2007 93.0

2006 92.5

2005 91.0

2004 91.8

% of DPs allocated for Major

2011 78.35

2010 77.45

2009 75.4

2008 75.3

2007 75.7

2006 75.4

2005 75.6

2004 75.6

% Promoted to Major w/DP and w/o AAD

2011 98.5

2010 99.7

% Promoted to Major w/P and w/o AAD

2011 35.45

2010 48.0

% Promoted to Major w/DP, SOS-In Res w/o AAD

2011 98.92

2010 100

% Promoted to Major w/P, SOS-In Res w/o AAD

2011 41.98

2010 60.38

% Promoted to Major w/DP , SOS-Coor , w/o AAD

2011 93.8

2010 98.3

% Promoted to Major w/P , SOS-Coor , w/o AAD

2011 20.48

2010 28.57

My takeaways are: DPs are the biggest factor to promotion regardless of AAD then SOS In-Res. If you don't wind up in the bottom 1/3 of your unit you should get a DP and that will net you a >98% chance of promotion even without a shitty degree. If you happen to be a bottom 1/3 feeder but not in the bottom 10% of your unit, you'll get to attend SOS In-Res and increase your odds some.

Morale of the story: Keep your OPRs out of the bottom 1/3 for the majority of your first 8 years and you'll get a DP and make major without making a diploma mill money then at 6 years start your free AU OLMP masters and never think twice about crying that TA is gone.

[pcola]

It's the "Promoted to Major w/P and w/o AAD" = 35% number that worries most people.

The problem is that more often than not, the Sq-Wg CCs allocate strats at least in part based upon AAD completion. They look again at AAD degree completion when allocating DPs, and can even disregard previous strats to give the last DP to someone lower on the strat list if he has is AAD but the person above him does not. Witnessed it. So, how it really breaks down, is that if you aren't working on your AAD early, you miss early opportunities to get on the strat list. Then, if you don't have it done when they are handing out the DPs, that will likely put you into that bottom 25%, which then puts you into the P and no AAD category.

The moral is that if you don't have your AAD at least 6-9 months before your board, at most Wings, you'd better have some strong contributors (UPT/SOS DG, OG/Wg exec w/the strats that go with it) if you hope to get a DP. It can be done but not the path I'd necessarily recommend to the young'ns.

Edited March 16, 2013 by pcola

[Tonka]

It's the "Promoted to Major w/P and w/o AAD" = 35% number that worries most people.

The problem is that more often than not, the Sq-Wg CCs allocate strats at least in part based upon AAD completion.

Exactly, such a small part of an officer's leadership potential is dramatically magnified by such a ridiculous emphasis. Each level of review incorporates the ranking of the level below (which already incorporated SOS/AAD into their rank) with the same excel spreadsheet check boxes, and again at the board.

It's almost like choosing your Generals by putting them on a fast track when they are a Major, how stupid would that be?

[ThreeHoler]

It's almost like choosing your Generals by putting them on a fast track when they are a Major, how stupid would that be?

My good sir, no one would ever be that stupid. Everyone knows the right time to fast track someone is when they're a Captain.

[Jaded]

Based on those stats, it sounds like if you get DG at SOS your reward is no masters requirement. Who's up for practicing FLEX rather than practicing your FLUG brief?

[nsplayr]

My takeaways are: DPs are the biggest factor to promotion regardless of AAD then SOS In-Res.

As pcola pointed out already, what do you think the Wings use to determine who gets a DP? Oh, right...AAD and PME in res.

Until that changes it really is about having those boxes checked because they are what will give you a huge leg-up on getting the DP that will get you promoted.

Edited March 17, 2013 by nsplayr

[disgruntledemployee]

So I saw this spreadsheet and on it contains every box one could check: DG, PME (both corr/res), Masters, Bac +, jobs like Flt CC, instructor, evaluator, etc. Then there were things like last 3 OPR bottom line pushes. Also, there was a PT test score. Then someome gave these items a point value to create a score. The sad thing was that something like an excellent on a PT test was worth more than other things like DG.

Now I understand that promotion boards do the same thing, but wings should do a better job of knowing their people and not relying on numbers. That is why we have STEP promotions, SRA BTZ, and DPs for Os. I do find it a little sad that promotion boards override some of those DPs, but then again there may be something in those OPRs that just cannot be overlooked/forgiven.

Perhaps an answer to promoting the right folks is increasing the DP numbers for wings to something like up to 50-60% and that a wing CC doesn't need to use all of them (in case there is a turd that needs to go). The rest can compete with the rest of the bottom 50% AF wide. It sure would make promotion boards go faster, perhaps easier. I'm sure most of us can rattle off the top 50-60% of Capts, Majs, etc. in our units.

For school selects, since wings rack/stack their DP, boards can look for those top 10 and start there. There is a chance of favoritism, but we already have that, just dressed differently, i.e. the wing exec is number one because the wing king's exec cannot be number 2, that is why he/she is exec.

Out

[ThreeHoler]

Perhaps an answer to promoting the right folks is increasing the DP numbers for wings to something like up to 50-60% and that a wing CC doesn't need to use all of them (in case there is a turd that needs to go). The rest can compete with the rest of the bottom 50% AF wide. It sure would make promotion boards go faster, perhaps easier. I'm sure most of us can rattle off the top 50-60% of Capts, Majs, etc. in our units.

You do know the DP % for O-4 is 75% and for O-5 is 55%, right?

[Skitzo]

Better yet allocate your promotes directly to the wings. There is so much wasted time and money in these boards and manhours wasted preparing prfs.

Or at least do a better job differentiating what exactly the line of the Air Force truly is.

[BitteEinBit]

Better yet allocate your promotes directly to the wings. There is so much wasted time and money in these boards and manhours wasted preparing prfs.

Or at least do a better job differentiating what exactly the line of the Air Force truly is.

Because then you'll have 'new guys' to the Wing competing with 'Homesteaders". It kind of happens now. The only saving grace is past performance...oh wait, no one looks at that anymore.

Rock Bottom Line (I just wanted an excuse to say that): Don't be the new guy at your Wing when PRFs are due. Timing is everything....

[Champ Kind]

Because then you'll have 'new guys' to the Wing competing with 'Homesteaders". It kind of happens now. The only saving grace is past performance...oh wait, no one looks at that anymore.

Rock Bottom Line (I just wanted an excuse to say that): Don't be the new guy at your Wing when PRFs are due. Timing is everything....

Absolutely.

[Learjetter]

Good summary, Hoss. One other thing to mention: the Senior Rater (normally wing/cc for O3-O4 board) does not HAVE to allocate ALL his IPZ DPs. So, with a 75% DP rate, if 20 dudes from his wing are meeting the board (12 rated, 2 Mx, 2 CE, 1 cop, 1 finance, 2 comm) he could hand out 10 DPs, and give 5 DPs to the MLR. Seen it happen--#11-20 would not have passed DP muster at the MLR, so the boss didn't even try. In case you were wondering, #11 had the first ART15...the rest had at least that, or more.

[DC]

Hoss, all good points. I'd like to add....

The reason guys get up in arms is they don't have every "easy" box filled; e.g., they don't have AAD. If you don't have one of these boxes checked, you're going to float down the pile of PRFs, not up. They pushed the AAD as a selling point so successfully that if you don't have it done you're in the minority. 75% DP is a really good chance, but not having your AAD makes DP less likely. I dug up the numbers from CY11 for pilots (sorry, look on AFPC for AF-wide #s) and here's why people freak out about their AAD.

Of the PILOTS on the CY11 LAF Major's Board that attended SOS in Residence:

524 with an AAD (90.5% DP = 100% promoted; 9.5% P = 82% promoted)

381 without an AAD (75.6% DP = 99% promoted; 24.4% P = 45% promoted)

Statistically speaking, not having an AAD decreases your shot at a DP by 15%. Additionally, SOS in Residence with no AAD and only a P had a promotion rate of 45%. Last year, 93 pilots had SOS in Residence, no AAD, and a P. Only 42 made Major. Not a fun group of 93 guys to be in. We all know guys from this list.

Another takeaway from all of the numbers: only 55% of the pilots had their AAD (SOS or not) at the CY11 board. That's less than I thought it was.

Edited March 17, 2013 by DC